Scott Gulbransen
Charles Leclerc could be the man to finally crack Mercedes’ grip on the 2026 Formula 1 season, and he has at least one prominent voice betting on him to do it at home.
Ferrari heads to the streets of Monte Carlo for Sunday’s Monaco Grand Prix with momentum, a freshly signed contract for its star driver, and a growing belief in the paddock that the tightest circuit on the calendar is where Mercedes’ winning run could end. Leclerc, who put pen to paper on a new multi-year extension with the Maranello team just days before his home race, arrives carrying the kind of expectation that comes with being the local favorite at the sport’s most glamorous event.
Jolyon Palmer, a former F1 driver and current F1 TV analyst, expressed his belief in Ferrari’s resurgence on the F1 Nation podcast.
Palmer confidently predicted a strong showing from Leclerc and Ferrari, foreseeing challenges for Mercedes on Monaco’s narrow track. He boldly envisioned a Ferrari 1-2 finish, with Leclerc securing first place, Hamilton in second, and Lando Norris in third, citing Mercedes’ historical struggles at the Monaco circuit.
Here’s our podium predictions for the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix:
P1: Charles Leclerc | Ferrari
A Charles Leclerc win in Monaco needs little justification. He finally broke his home hoodoo here and has long been one of the quickest drivers in the world around these barriers, where a single tenth in qualifying can decide the entire weekend. With the contract question settled and the pressure of his future off his shoulders, this is the kind of stage where he tends to deliver. A front-row start Saturday would make him very hard to beat.
P2: Lando Norris | McLaren
Lando Norris in second is the best McLaren bet you can make. The team struggled in Montreal, but Monaco rewards a precise, confident driver more than it rewards an outright fast car and Norris has shown he can thread the needle here when the setup comes his way. A strong qualifying lap would put him right in the mix at the front and his car placement matters far more around these streets than where McLaren’s pace ranked a week ago.
P3: Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari
Lewis Hamilton in third reflects where Ferrari actually is right now. He came off his best weekend in red yet, a second-place finish in Canada, and the car looks suited to the slow, technical demands of Monte Carlo. A Ferrari double podium feels well within reach, even if the full 1-2 that Palmer predicts proves a stretch.
What It Means for the Title Fight
The bigger story is what all this means for the championship. Kimi Antonelli arrives in Monaco with a commanding lead, having won four straight races to open a 43-point gap over Mercedes teammate George Russell. The 19-year-old became the youngest driver ever to lead the standings and Mercedes has won every grand prix so far in 2026. If the predictions hold and no Mercedes lands on the podium Sunday, it would be the first real crack in that armor all year.
Monaco has a habit of producing surprises, and with a dry, mild forecast across the weekend, qualifying on Saturday looms as the session that decides everything. For Ferrari, and for a home crowd desperate to see Leclerc on the top step, the stage could hardly be set better.
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