Four reasons why Eric Thames breaking MLB HR record isn’t so crazy

Eric Thames is on fire. In fact, he’s hotter than fire. A trip to the Sun would feel downright chilly compared to standing next to Eric Thames. The Milwaukee Brewers slugger is mashing baseballs at a record pace.

On Monday, he belted two home runs against the Cincinnati Reds, bringing his season total up to 10.

Baseball logic says that Thames will cool down. The rational part of everyone’s brain says he’ll cool down. At this point, he could cool down and still have a fantastic 35-40 home run season.

With that in mind, we could logically say that he won’t come anywhere near the home run record and be done.

But where’s the fun in that?

Logic may say that a home run record (73 for those of us who have short memories) is out of the realm of possibility. But there are also reasons — rational reasons — why chasing the home run record is realistic. We’d prefer to talk about those.

If you want to start a good baseball argument with your friends, walk up to them and say proudly that Thames will break the single season home run record in 2017. When they ask you why, this is what you’ll tell them.

Reason 1: The pace

Paces are weird in April, we know. But rather than looking at what his actual pace is (roughly 77 after two home runs on Monday), let’s do a little comparison.

The last four men to hold the single season record are Babe Ruth (60 home runs, 1927), Roger Maris (61 home runs, 1961), Mark McGwire (70 home runs, 1998), and Barry Bonds (73 home runs, 2001).

How does Thames stack up to them?

This isn’t a matter of a few at-bats skewing an early season pace. This is someone comparing favorably to the greatest power seasons in baseball history.

That’s not something we can sneeze at.

Reason 2: Miller Park

Let’s imagine a (hopefully) completely hypothetical scenario. Someone walks up to you with the bad news that you need to hit a home run in a Major League ballpark to save your life. The only good news? You get to pick the ballpark.

It would not take long to arrive at the decision to pick Miller Park.

In each of the last five seasons, the Brewers’ home stadium has been graded (by ESPN’s MLB Park Factors) as one of the best parks in baseball to hit the long ball. It ranked ninth in 2016, first in 2015, eighth in 2014, fifth in 2013 and first in 2012.

Thames will get to play half of his games in that stadium. He’ll also get ample road games at the Great American Ballpark (live to all fields), Wrigley Field (can be live to all fields, depending on the wind), and PNC Park (live for left-handed hitters.) The only true pitcher friendly ballpark in the NL Central is Busch Stadium in St. Louis.

Not every home run lands in the upper deck, 450 feet away from home plate. Some need to be relatively cheap homers, getting carry out to a short porch and landing in the first few rows. Thames will get those chances more than most hitters around baseball.

Playing at pitcher friendly AT&T Park, Bonds didn’t get many of those chances. Neither did McGwire playing at Busch Stadium. Thames certainly doesn’t have their overall power. But he may not need to be quite so prolific, either. His environment will help his quest.

Reason 3: The Brewers

When pursing a record like this, we can’t only look at the player himself. Thames has an abundance of power, but he needs to be given pitches to hit to show that off.

Ruth and Maris were aided by hitting in front of Lou Gehrig and Mickey Mantle, respectively. So, pitching around them them only meant facing a Hall of Famer with an extra man on base. Not exactly sound baseball strategy.

McGwire and especially Bonds had their pursuits somewhat hindered by playing in competitive games. The 1998 St. Louis Cardinals went 83-79. While they were never serious playoff contenders, they outscored their opponents by only 28 runs during the season. So, they were in a lot of competitive games. The 2001 San Francisco Giants were in contention until the final weekend of the year, but had a plus-51 run differential. Again, that points to a lot of close games.

Both men broke the existing records, but it was legitimate to wonder if they’d see enough pitches to do so.

That’s not such a concern with Milwaukee.

First of all, the Brewers can protect Thames in the lineup. They may not have someone like Gehrig or Mantle, but Ryan Braun’s bat needs to be taken seriously.

Additionally, thanks to a subpar pitching rotation, Milwaukee doesn’t figure to be an especially competitive team through the year. That doesn’t mean every Brewers game will be a blowout. But don’t expect them to be in the kind of games that the 1998 Cardinals or 2001 Giants were in throughout the season. If the games are lopsided, then there’s less reason to ever pitch around anyone.

Home runs in blowouts count just as much as the long balls hit in close games.

Reason 4: We haven’t even hit the dog days

Granted, April is generally favorable to the hitters. It often takes a few outings for pitchers to sharpen their stuff. But it’s also a little chillier around the league than it will be in June, July, and August. Also, while pitchers may not be completely sharp, they’re all fresh. In the summer months, that’s not the case.

What happens when the weather gets warmer?

First of all, the ball carries better. Naturally, that’s important when we’re talking about home runs.

But the warm weather also has adverse effects on pitchers, who get tired. Tired pitchers tend to leave their pitches up. Pitches left up go a long way. Thames hasn’t even begun to enjoy the benefits of that. He’s yet to see a pitcher being stretched out for a few extra innings as a way to save the rest of the bullpen.

So, if you think that Thames’ pace is simply a hot start and not really sustainable, that’s fine. But you have to remember that several external circumstances indicate the best may be yet to come.