Life, and basketball, is a never-ending circle — at least over the last three seasons. As we head into the NBA Finals this June, basketball fans find themselves in a familiar place. The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers are playing for the title. Most expected this since Kevin Durant announced he would be going to the Warriors on July 4, 2016. And during the playoffs it’s been clear that nobody could beat — or honestly contend with — either team.
In short, the Warriors and Cavs are what we thought they were: the undisputed two best teams in basketball.
After the last two Finals, we know what’s coming. Outside of the addition of Durant, not much has changed roster-wise or strategically for either team. This is what makes this series so intriguing. This is like Ali-Frazier III — two champions slugging it out with no tricks left in the bag.
The Warriors come in as favorites and with history on the line. They’re the first team to reach the Finals without losing a game in the postseason since the 2001 Los Angeles Lakers — and the first team to do it since the first round went to a best-of-7 format. After adding Durant, the expectations are on their shoulders, but the Cavs, as we’ve learned the hard way, are the only team which can challenge them.
Cleveland was in the same position as the underdog last season even before going down 3-1 in the series, and it didn’t deter them. We know what LeBron James is capable of, we know what Kyrie Irving is capable of and we know what this team is capable of. Any doubt was shoved aside in Games 5-7 last season when they mounted the greatest comeback in NBA playoff history.
This list examines eight factors which will decide the series. A lot of what we’ll cover is what helped decide the last two Finals, such as the Warriors’ ability to hide Stephen Curry on defense. But Durant’s inclusion fundamentally changes the makeup of the series. He gives this series a chance to be the best of the three because, undoubtedly, we’re seeing the best possible versions of both teams. Don’t expect any punches to be pulled.
Here are the eight biggest keys to the NBA Finals.
Can the Warriors hide Stephen Curry on defense?
A big part of what ended Golden State last season was the Cavs battering Curry on both ends, resulting in a sorely diminished Curry on offense and a punching bag on defense. When the Warriors ran Curry through screens off-ball or he simply tried to move, the Cavs got physical, poke checking and knocking him every chance they got.
Defensively, they hunted Curry like he was Bambi’s mom. Every time down the court, they’d use his man as the screener until the Warriors were forced to switch him onto either LeBron James or Kyrie Irving. From there, it was easy money.
Curry is the lone weak link for the Warriors on defense — at least on their crunch-time lineup, affectionately dubbed the “Hamptons 5” by the Mercury News’ Tim Kawakami. This defense consists of Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green (other lineups featuring guys like Zaza Pachulia and Ian Clark don’t require them to go after one guy). Wearing Curry down defensively — and with physicality on offense — also badly diminishes what he can do when the Warriors have the ball.
A year later, it’s still impossible to know whether Curry’s injury lingered into the 2016 Finals. But it’s abundantly clear that he was drained by the end of the series. This had a lot to do with how the Cavs treated him defensively. Over the last three games of the Finals last season, Curry shot just 30.8 percent on drives, per NBA.com’s tracking, after shooting 54.5 percent over the first four.
Hunting him won’t bear the same fruits it did last year because the Warriors can simply go to Kevin Durant for offense, but for the Cavs, it may be the easiest way to score in crunch time.
The seriousness of Andre Iguodala’s injury
Iguodala’s left knee has become one of the most important factors of this year’s Finals. He’s shooting just 11.1 percent from three and barely above 40 percent from the field this postseason. Defensively, the Warriors have been better — much better — without him on the floor. During the postseason, they’re giving up a 102.6 defensive rating with him on court, which drops to 95.7 with him out.
Some of that has to do with who he’s sharing the floor with and the fact that he’s been off when opponents have waved the white flag and gone to the end of their bench. But the same disparity isn’t there with the rest of Golden State’s stalwarts. Green, Thompson and Curry — the latter by virtue of playing with the former two — all have seen the team do much better defensively with them on the floor. (Curiously, Durant is in Iguodala’s camp).
To say the Warriors need Iguodala at his best in this series is an understatement. He’ll be their go-to for restraining James defensively, as in the last two Finals. He has to fight through every screen to save Golden State from switching and try to contain him well enough to keep help from coming. If not, then James will pick the defense apart with one of those passes that nobody else can make, zipping it across the court to the open man whose defender is half a second late on a rotation.
Offensively, Iguodala is usually the worst shooter on the floor for the Warriors in his normal state. Defenses give him open threes because they have little choice, and he usually hits them at a respectable enough rate. In the postseason, however, he’s 3-of-26 — 11.5 percent — on shots where the defender is more than four feet away.
The Cavs dared Harrison Barnes to hit those shots last season, helping aggressively off him, and it worked. Iguodala has to prevent the same strategy from having success this time around.
Can Golden State defend the Irving-James pick and roll?
There are two versions to one of the NBA’s deadliest plays, so let’s address them separately. The first is more standard, where James screens for Irving.
Assuming the Warriors stick Klay Thompson on Irving — a relatively safe assumption — they’ll likely just switch, the best of a host of bad options. Go under and Irving will nail an open three. Go over and the Warriors either have to cede the open midranger he loves or risk Irving threading a pass to a rolling James if Iguodala contains.
Irving is a good enough passer to beat a trap or hedge. Switching leaves Thompson on James, but the Warriors will deal with an ensuing isolation if they have to. Thompson has done an acceptable job in those situations before.
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Cleveland may run the inverted version more in the Finals however — Irving screening for James. Doing so would allow them to try and get Curry on Irving before the play with “screen the screener” action, where J.R. Smith screens for Irving off-ball before Irving comes up to set the screen for James, leaving Thompson a few steps behind or potentially prompting that coveted switch.
If the Cavs don’t bother with that window dressing, switching may still be the best course of action for Golden State. It prompts the same matchups as switching the regular matchup, and the Warriors can survive that. It also does a better job of preventing help than any other option.
Irving and James are both great passers and will pick apart a defense that has to rotate. However, don’t be surprised if Iguodala tries ducking under the screen if James is the ball-handler. LeBron has been reigning fire from deep this postseason but historically isn’t much of a shooter. The Warriors could give him open threes until he proves he can make them.
Things get more complicated if they force Curry to guard Irving with “screen the screener,” or by staggering screens when Irving is the ball-handler. The Warriors wouldn’t dream of willingly switching Curry onto James, which means they almost have to send help.
Depending on who the Cavs have on the floor, some versions of this are dicier than others — leaving Richard Jefferson open is much easier than leaving Channing Frye or Kevin Love — but James is such a good passer that you can count on him to put the Warriors in scramble mode if they start helping. Golden State could try pre-rotating. But helping, by definition, always leaves somebody open, and James will find him.
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Can Mike Brown be trusted making decisions in crunch-time?
Brown said that Steve Kerr could return to the Warriors’ sideline for the Finals. But for now, it looks like he’ll be the decision-maker, at least for the start of the series.
Kerr’s crunch-time record isn’t perfect (see Varejao, Anderson), but he’s generally considered one of the best coaches in the league. And rightly so. His adjustments played a huge role in Golden State winning the 2015 Finals, and he’s done an incredible job managing a room chock full of egos.
Brown, however, is largely untested on such a big stage. He’s coached only one close game since taking over for Kerr and has a poor reputation for strategy from his prior jobs in Cleveland and Los Angeles. It’s not as if there are big questions about what lineup the Warriors should play in a close game, or that it’s likely Brown changes any strategy without input from Kerr, who’s still involved behind the scenes. But little things, like clock management or shifting the rotation if Cleveland takes advantage of the Warriors’ consistent substitution patterns, will be up to him.
In a tight game, does Brown go for a 2-for-1? What does it look like when he has to draw up a game-winning play? In a close game, things like that could be the difference, and we don’t really know what Brown is going to do.
How does Cleveland defend the Curry-Durant pick and roll?
Golden State has its own lethal pick-and-roll combination. ut, unlike Cleveland, the Warriors have barely used it. All year, the coaching staff has treated the pick and roll like a vintage Corvette, keeping it in the garage with the cover on, unless needed. Presumably, they’ll use it more liberally in the Finals, because there’s no other time left to bust it out.
Exactly how much they go to it remains to be seen. Golden State is consistently near the bottom of the league in frequency running the pick and roll — it prefers to stay within their motion-fueled offense. But that doesn’t mean Smith/Kerr won’t use it. If and when they start using this combination with regularity, stopping it feels like an impossibility.
Switch a smaller guy — probably J.R. Smith — onto Durant and it’ll be easy money in the post. Switch a bigger guy — probably James — onto Curry, and he could be toast on a drive or pullup three. Going under means ceding an open three to either the best shooter in basketball history or Durant, who shot 37.5 percent from deep himself (the Warriors invert this, with Curry as the screener, occasionally as well). Going over likely means being a step behind and potentially creating a 2-on-1 for Curry and Durant, forcing help.
All things considered, the Cavs will probably at least try a fairly traditional pick and roll defense: going over on the screen, dropping James into contain (when Durant is the screener) and helping off Andre Iguodala (at least when Iguodala is on the floor). With Iguodala struggling this postseason, it makes sense to dare him to beat them, but even that presents some challenges. The screener could slip or fade to the 3-point line, taking James out of position, forcing help, and potentially getting an open trey out of it.
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Curry or Durant can decline the screen — that is, go the opposite way — and try to catch the defender leaning. Iguodala could find his stroke again.
There’s no good way to go about this, but Cleveland would rather cede an open shot to Iguodala than do anything else. Unless they’re comfortable switching (and maybe they are) that’s probably their only option.
Is Cleveland able to switch with the same effectiveness they did in the 2016 Finals?
A simple fact of defending Golden State is that, unless you can switch, you’re screwed. From high-post split cuts to off-ball screens to the constant motion that defines their offense, it’s just impossible to defend that much action without switching. Otherwise, somebody will fall behind. Somebody will mess up.
Last year, the Cavs started winning when they started switching and, more importantly, switching with effectiveness. Tristan Thompson was able to contain Curry on the perimeter. Famously, Kevin Love saved the day when Curry had the chance to tie Game 7 with the big man switched onto the perimeter.
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But Kevin Durant changes things. Last year, Curry was Golden State’s only real deterrent to switches — the only player who could consistently punish big guys off the dribble. Sure, Draymond Green has an advantage over Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson over Kevin Love, but those are at least navigable for the defense.
The Warriors won’t stop everything to put Draymond in the post against a mismatch, Thompson isn’t a great ball-handler, though he’s made strides when it comes to getting to the basket. If you’re the Cavs, you take switches if it means you aren’t dealing with the constant breakdowns that doing anything else creates.
Durant, however, will isolate and punish guards. Give him a mismatch to work with and he’ll put the ball in the post and score.
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Moreover, the Cavs’ bench is a defensive disaster. Cleveland has avoided all-bench lineups for this reason. But Channing Frye, Kyle Korver and Deron Williams have shared the floor for 79 minutes this postseason and allowed 119.9 points per 100 possessions. The Cavs’ second-most used lineup during the postseason — James, those three, and Iman Shumpert — has a -9.6 net rating, thanks entirely to defense.
Switching everything with any of the bench guys on the floor, sans-Shumpert, is tough, even when the Warriors have less threatening guys like Shaun Livingston or Javale McGee on the floor. Breakdowns are more likely, and, even without them, the Warriors can beat guys like Korver and Williams 1-on-1.
The Cavs have been better overall defensively since the start of the postseason. But this is still a team that was 22nd in defensive rating during the regular season. Golden State is a different animal than any of their other playoff opponents — they were the league’s best offensive team during the regular season — and an even tougher nut to crack than last season. The Cavs solved them to win the 2016 Finals, but surviving on switches will be even harder this time around.
Can the Cavs stay hot offensively?
During the postseason, Cleveland is scoring a staggering 120.7 points per 100 possessions. As a team, it has a 59.8 effective field goal percentage and is knocking down 43.5 percent of its 3-pointers. The Cavs were a great offensive team during the regular season, but not this great. Things just seem to have clicked in a different way over the past 13 games.
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The question now is whether or not they can sustain it. Right now, Channing Frye is at 52.6 percent shooting from behind the arc, and Deron Williams is at 50 percent. James — a 36.3 percent shooter from outside during the regular season — is at 42.1 percent during the playoffs and getting downright cocky.
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Numbers like that seem unsustainable, even over the small sample that the Finals provides. Moreover, the Warriors have impeccable defensive credentials. Not only is Draymond Green the odds-on favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year, but Golden State has a 99.1 defensive rating during the postseason, the best in basketball.
The Warriors’ ability to switch is unparalleled and can force any offense into uncomfortable situations. It prevents opportunities from opening up and causes teams to resort to 1-on-1 basketball.
This is an unstoppable force against an immovable object, but it certainly looks like Cleveland’s offense is getting at least a little bit lucky. Even on the free throw line, Tristan Thompson is shooting 66.7 percent during the postseason, over 16 percent better than the regular season. Things like that don’t last, but if Cleveland can keep up at least some of the momentum, it could decide the series.
Just how much of a superhuman is LeBron James?
The Warriors are relatively heavy favorites on the series. They have home-court advantage. They won 73 games last season, then added one of the best three basketball players in the world. From that standpoint, it’s easy to look at this series as Golden State’s to win.
But LeBron James complicates all of that because he’s not just the best player in the league, he’s the second-best player of all-time. He didn’t even tap into his reserves during the regular season and averaged 26.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game. During the playoffs he’s at 32.5 points, eight rebounds and seven assists per game on 56.6 percent shooting from the field.
Even if the Warriors are slowing him down, he’ll still put up insane numbers. Remember, in 2015 when Andre Iguodala won Finals MVP for doing a great job defending James, many wanted to give the trophy to James himself for singlehandedly pushing the series to six games.
If Cleveland is going to win this series, James has to put up a superhuman effort again, but there’s not much reason to believe he can’t. It feels like James has been saving himself for this. He’s been on autopilot until now, absent-mindedly putting up insane numbers and leading the Cavs to the Finals.
But we’ll be getting the best possible version of LeBron James in this series, a terrifying proposition unto itself, in part because we almost never see the best possible version of LeBron James.
Outside of the NBA Finals, James has almost no need to go into fifth gear. Sure, we see flashes of it. The second half of Game 3 against the Indiana Pacers, when he led a 25-point comeback, scoring 41 for the game, was one such time.
We see it other times on the occasional chasedown block. A possession or two when he decides to remind everyone that he’s the best.
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But by and large, James stays in third gear. This is the first time since the 2016 Finals where we’ll see him in fifth, at his absolute best, constantly. That — along with great performances from Irving, Love, and Co. — was enough to break Cleveland’s 52-year championship drought last season.
Whether it’s enough this year, with Golden State having added Durant, remains to be seen.