The Detroit Tigers are coming, folks. Last season was a great building year, going from 66 wins in 2022 to 78 last season. They finished second in the AL Central, nine back to the Minnesota Twins, but that single digit deficit is the fewest games they’ve finished behind the first-place team since they were eight back in 2016. With a number of young players on the roster, this team has aspirations of winning the Central in 2024.
A late-season four game split with the Oakland A’s on the road secured the club a winning record away from Comerica Park at 41-40, which was one game better than the Twins. The difference in the division was the two team’s home record, where Minnesota was 13 games over .500 while Detroit was seven below. The Tigers also finished with a run differential of -79 which was one of the worst marks in baseball, but they finished five wins above their Pythagorean record, which has been the norm since A.J. Hinch took over as manager.
The Tigers will need a little improvement on offense and with their pitching staff to reach their goals in 2024, but this club is certainly within reach of the postseason. Let’s take a look at some of the moves the team has made this winter, their outlook for 2024, and give you one player to keep an eye on for the upcoming season.
Detroit Tigers additions and subtractions
The Detroit Tigers’ offseason has been fairly quiet, but compared to the Twins, they have made some big moves. One exercise we’ve been doing is comparing the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) that are leaving the club via free agency, trades, and the like, and comparing that to the projected WAR that the team is bringing in for 2024. The Tigers have had a decent offseason by this metric, adding 4.2 WAR, but the Twins (spoiler alert) are at -12.9 WAR.
While the Tigers losing Eduardo Rodriguez (3 WAR) is a big blow, they have brought in Kenta Maeda (2.1), Jack Flaherty (1.5), and Mark Canha (1.4) as their big additions. Matthew Boyd is the only other player that Detroit will be without that had a positive WAR total a year ago. Obviously, losing Miguel Cabrera is going to take some getting used to, but at the same time, it freed up the roster a little bit more. He’s a legend and a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but in terms of competing in the near future, his departure may be for the best.
While WAR isn’t exactly a one-to-one representation of what a team’s record will be, it does represent a team’s talent level. Based off of where the Twins finished (87-75) last season and what they’ve lost over the winter, these two teams could be a lot closer than people realize.
Detroit Tigers Tigers 2024 outlook
The Detroit Tigers have a dark horse candidate for AL Cy Young in Tarik Skubal, who posted a 2.80 ERA in 801/3 innings last season. The biggest question around the lefty will be if he can reach the innings markers to qualify for the prize at the end of the season. He has the talent, he just needs to put in a full season’s worth of work.
The rest of the rotation will play a factor here, too. With the addition of Flaherty, the Tigers have a league average veteran. Same goes for Maeda. What kind of production Detroit gets from those last two spots will play a role in the team’s success this season.
Another wild card is going to be Javier Báez. While he hasn’t clicked in two seasons with the Tigers, he has shown the ability to go from downright awful offensively to one of the better hitters in the league from season to season in the past. He’s not expected to do that in 2024, but he is projected to be better, coming in with an 80 wRC+ (100 is league average). He’ll also continue to provide stellar defense.
Colt Keith has hit every step of the way in his rise through the ranks of the Tigers’ farm system, and with his new contract in hand, he’s going to make the Opening Day roster as the team’s second baseman. There will be growing pains, because there always are, but he could provide a nice boost in production at the position. Detroit ranked No. 24 in wRC+ from their second basemen a year ago with a combined 78 wRC+. Keith is projected at 106.
The development of Parker Meadows, Riley Greene, and Spencer Torkelson will be the other big factor in what kind of season Detroit ends up having. Those three are set to comprise one-third of the Tiger lineup, and all three were high draft picks in recent years. Having each of those three take another step forward in 2024 would go a long way to improving the offense as a whole, which would help trim that run differential deficit.
The Tigers still have question marks surrounding their club, hence the projected 75-87 season over at Baseball Prospectus, but with some slight improvements here and there, this club could be a real threat to win the Central before spending a bit more next winter.
Detroit Tigers player(s) to keep an eye on in 2024
Much like we’re keeping an eye on the young bats — Torkelson, Greene, and Meadows — another key for Detroit will be seeing what they can get from former first round picks Casey Mize and Alex Faedo this season. Mize missed all of 2023 after getting Tommy John surgery as well as an operation on his back and hasn’t pitched since April of 2022.
Mize was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 Draft. Now, nearly 27, he has under 200 innings pitched in the big leagues. Injuries happen, and him not being on the field is by no means his fault. Yet, for Detroit to have a better grasp of where they stand heading into 2025, they’ll need to see what they have with Mize once he is well enough to pitch this season.
Faedo, 28, was the No. 18 overall pick in the 2017 Draft, and has had mixed results in Detroit. Last season he posted a 4.45 ERA across 642/3 innings, which was roughly league average. This season will also be the final year that the right-hander has an option attached to him, which makes it imperative that the Tigers get a good read on exactly what they have with him, because next year they won’t have the option to send him to the minors without passing him through waivers first.
This is a big year for each of those right-handers, and with a number of solid pitchers hitting the free agent market after the season that the Tigers could go after, it’s important to know what they have in their system already. If they were able to add Faedo and Mize to the rotation and use some of their financial resources elsewhere next winter, that would be the best case scenario for the long-term future of the club.
Jason Burke covers MLB for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.