So many times in today’s NFL, narratives begin and take on a life of their own — whether they are true and backed up by evidence or not.
There’s been a lot of talk in the sports world about Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson not performing this season and whether the trade that brought him to Denver was worth it. While it’s true that the Broncos gave up a massive amount of draft capital in the 2022 trade, does that automatically mean Wilson is underperforming based on what Denver gave to Seattle to acquire the quarterback?
Fans and experts are quick to criticize his 2-5 record (6-16 as starter in Denver) and claim that his skills are declining. Is that the whole story? Is it truly accurate to say that Wilson is a shadow of his former self?
A closer examination reveals that contrary to that belief, Russell Wilson is actually having a solid season—both statistical data and contextual factors support this conclusion and prove the current national narrative is wrong.
The Russell Wilson legacy
Russell Wilson is a name synonymous with elite quarterbacking. A Super Bowl champion, seven-time Pro Bowler, and holder of numerous franchise records in Seattle, Wilson’s career has set an incredibly high bar for success.
Upon arrival in Denver, expectations were sky-high for a franchise that has struggled to settle on a franchise quarterback since Peyton Manning. Even before the brief but successful Manning years, names like Jay Cutler, Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow and Jake Plummer gave it a shot. After Manning, Trevor Siemian, Drew Lock and Paxton Lynch tried with little avail to lead the Broncos back to consistent glory. Many believed the addition of Wilson would mean the Broncos had the missing piece they needed to return to the playoffs.
But the Broncos were, and are, far from being a complete team. While 2023 has seen their defense come together over the past few weeks, and their offense has improved as well, when Wilson arrived he had far less than an impressive supporting cast.
Unfair criticisms based on Russell Wilson’s 2022 season
There has been a lot of analysis about Wilson’s performance in 2023, almost tainting it from the start due to his admittedly brutal 2022 season.
Wilson is known for being efficient and making plays but in 2022 his completion rate dropped to just 60.5%, which is lower than what we’re used to seeing from him. He threw for 3,524 yards last season, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt, also well below his usual standards.
What really stood out during his down 2022 was his touchdown to interception ratio. He only managed to throw 16 touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions resulting in a touchdown rate of 3.3% and an interception rate of 2.3%. These numbers are significantly lower than his average over the four seasons where he maintained a TD/INT rate of around 4.61%. To make things worse, his quarterback rating for the year was 84.1 — the lowest of his career so far. It’s clear that he didn’t have a working relationship with former Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett.
When we compare Wilson’s performance in 2022 to his performances in previous years where he consistently had QB ratings well over 100, it becomes evident that last season was clearly an outlier over the course of his career.
Statistical evidence Wilson’s 2023 season shows he is back on track
Common criticisms for Wilson’s 2023 season range from a less-than-stellar win-loss record to a decrease in yards per attempt. Critics argue that he’s lost his magic touch, citing his stats as the end-all evidence.
Yet, when you look at the numbers, they blow up that narrative.
For starters, Wilson’s completion percentage in 2023 stands at 66.4%, which surpasses his career average of 64.7%. In seven games he has thrown for 1,499 yards along with 13 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. Those who closely follow Wilson note that his decision making skills remain sharp and he looks more like himself than under Hackett last season.
Let’s consider this: Wilson is currently on track to throw for 38 touchdowns and for 4,310 passing yards this season. If he maintains this pace, it would undoubtedly be one of the most productive seasons in his already illustrious Hall of Fame career.
It’s perplexing to witness how the perception of Wilson has been shaped by his performance in 2022 despite him playing at a level to his time in Seattle this season.. Given that context, it’s crucial not to overlook his achievements this year with a less-than-stellar supporting cast. Wilson continues to display a level of play that truly deserves positive recognition.
The state of the Broncos factors in Russell Wilson conversation
As we often hear when discussing players having a good year on bad teams, wins are a team stat. Yet, in Russell Wilson’s case, the lack of wins in Denver are being used against him as a player.
This has been a season for the Broncos that has seen injuries that have impacted both offense and defense. The offensive line has been in flux and has affected their timing and ability to protect. On the defensive side, the Broncos haven’t displayed their usual dominance putting more pressure on the offense and Wilson.
Benjamin Allbright, an NFL insider and co-host of the Broncos Country radio show on KOA in Denver, says Wilson has less than a stellar support cast on offense but still excels despite that.
“He’s good at escaping pressure and figuring the pocket out and buying time and all that kind of stuff — the same thing he’s always been good at and really is the same player he was before,” Allbright told me. “The problem is the Broncos don’t have receivers to go out there and get the ball. They don’t have receivers that can separate. They don’t have an offense that really favors what he does.”
That’s what’s lost in the simplistic look at Wilson’s time in Denver and basing it mostly on the team’s lack of success in the win column. Each situation is different and the well-documented failure in 2022 under Hackett and now the struggles under Sean Payton, must be considered too.
“I mean, Russ is still executing what’s asked of him. For the most part he’s got a good quarterback rating, he’s been efficient and he’s done well,” Allbright said. “But you know, the Broncos are a poor blocking team and have receivers that can’t separate and that’s that’s really a part of the problem.”
The challenges are multiple and blaming Wilson for the team’s performance is a simplistic take on a complex situation.
Stacking Russell Wilson against his peers
Even in a season where so many (especially pundits in Seattle) are labeling it as another down year for Wilson, his stats are comparable to quarterbacks touted as having ‘good’ seasons. Many quarterbacks would kill for a 2:1 TD-INT ratio and a completion percentage over 65%. If we peel back the layers, we see that Wilson’s so-called “bad” performance is more than serviceable—it’s competent, and in many metrics, still elite.
Currently, Wilson ranks fifth in touchdowns (13) — two less than Patrick Mahomes and four behind NFL leader Josh Allen — and third overall in QB touchdown percentage. He’s also seventh overall in quarterback rating. Other numbers are down primarily due to reasons discussed earlier around protection and a lack of weapons on offense.
The narrative isn’t true and the evidence proves it
While Russell Wilson may not be in contention for the MVP title this season it would be unfair and inaccurate to label his performance as ‘bad’. We need to consider his contribution and also acknowledge the difficult circumstances he has faced during Payton’s inaugural year in Denver.
Football is a team sport so it wouldn’t be right to blame one player for any team shortcomings. The intricacies of the game go beyond performance. With 13 touchdowns and four interceptions a completion rate higher than his career average, and the intangible qualities that make him a leader both on and off the field, Wilson is far from having a below average season
Before hastily criticizing Russell Wilson let’s dig deeper than just looking at basic statistics or win loss records. By examining the context in which he is performing, we might uncover that Wilson is still playing at the top-tier level we have come to expect from him.
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