There are four top contenders being highlighted above the rest to win the 2016 British Open, but this is a tournament that favors dark horse candidates more often than not.
Heading into this weekend’s action at Royal Troon, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth are being viewed as the guys to beat, based on how oddsmakers at GolfOdds.com see the upcoming action. This is completely reasonable, but it doesn’t mean one of these four world superstars will walk away with the Claret Jug on Sunday.
Looking back at the history of this tournament, longshots and dark horses have won plenty in recent years.
Going back to the turn of the century, big-name stars have won the British Open just seven times (Tiger Woods three times, Ernie Els twice, Phil Mickelson and McIlroy once). On the flip side, we’ve seen nine underdogs win the British Open.
So which dark horse candidates have the best shot to win the 2016 British Open?
Zach Johnson, USA (50-1)
Truly, it’s remarkable that Johnson is being given such long odds to win this year’s British Open.
Last year’s champion also has a Masters victory under his belt, finished in a tie for eighth place at the U.S. Open last month and has two other top-10 finishes at The Open Championship in 2012-13.
Additionally, Johnson is hot, having followed up his excellent showing at the U.S. Open with a top-10 finish at Firestone just a couple weeks ago.
His steady play off the tee, stalwart demeanor and championship experience make him one of the most interesting players to watch this weekend.
Andy Sullivan, England (60-1)
Local boy Sullivan should have the crowd at Royal Troon amped up for a potential inside job.
With two top-10s to boast of in his last two starts (tie for sixth at Scottish Open and tie for fifth at French Open), Sullivan is peaking at just the right time to make a splash.
In his first appearance at The Open last year, Sullivan put together a more than respectable tie for 30th place.
He did fail to make the cut at the Masters earlier this year but has since made huge strides in a positive direction. Playing on a links setup should also work in his favor this weekend.
Graeme McDowell, Northern Ireland (80-1)
Always a fan favorite, the native of Northern Ireland has come close to winning the British Open a couple of times. McDowell has two top-10 finishes at The Open the past four years, most recently earning a tie for ninth place in 2014.
Not surprisingly, he’s putting in some extra work at Royal Troon before the British Open this year.
Known as a scrappy player who almost always seems to find the fairways and who is adept at scrambling out of the rough, McDowell could finally break through for his second career major this weekend if his putter cooperates.
Ernie Els, South Africa (100-1)
In truth, it’s kind of shocking that Els is being given 100-1 odds to win The Open Championship this year. The Big Easy hasn’t won all season on the PGA Tour and has missed seven cuts, including the Masters and U.S. Open.
However, it would be foolish to count the smooth-swinging Els out of this year’s tourney at Royal Troon. He’s played well here before, posting a second-place finish in the 2004 British Open when Todd Hamilton defeated him in a four-hole playoff.
Additionally, Els has played well on links courses in general. He has 13 top-10 finishes at the British Open dating back to 1992, with his last win coming just four years ago when he won over Adam Scott by making birdie on the 72nd hole at Royal Lytham & St. Annes.
Finally, despite a rough overall season, Els is coming off his best finish of the year when he placed fifth at the Quicken Loans National late last month.
Danny Lee, New Zealand (100-1)
Most casual golf fans tuning into The Open won’t be searching the leaderboard to see where Lee stands.
With just one career win on the PGA Tour, the New Zealander isn’t exactly a hot commodity but could pay off big for those with an itch to place a wager.
Adept at putting the ball in play off the tee, Lee looked great last weekend at the Scottish Open, proving he can capitalize on a classic links design.
He finished in a tie for third place at Castle Stewart Golf Links, posting a final-round 69 that was free of bogeys — far from a simple task.
While it would be a major shock for Lee to finish near the top or on top of the leaderboard, don’t say we didn’t warn you if he pulls it off.
Padraig Harrington, Ireland (100-1)
It’s been a while since Paddy has been relevant as a major contender, but with three major titles (two British Open wins, one PGA Championship win), he clearly knows how to get the job done when the world is watching.
Harrington hasn’t won a tournament since March of last year, however, and he has missed the cut in four of his last five tournaments, including his last three. With this in mind, the fact he’s being given 100-1 odds to win The Open Championship this year shows how much oddmakers view his past achievements on links courses and at this tournament.
It’s also worth noting that while Harrington hasn’t made the cut in five of his last six majors, the one cut he did make was last year’s British Open, where he finished in a tie for 20th place.
Luke Donald, England (125-1)
Perhaps it’s a stretch to include Donald on this list, given his recent play. Since the start of May, Donald has produced more rounds in the 70s than the 60s and has missed more cuts this year than he has top-25 finishes.
Still, as a veteran of 16 British Opens and a golfer who has played Royal Troon twice before (1999, 2004) at The Open, Donald could surprise us all with some solid golf. He did so last year at St. Andrews, posting a 12th place finish to the surprise of many.
We’ll find out soon enough if Donald has what it takes to compete during this year’s British Open. He’ll be joining Colin Montgomerie and Marc Leishman as the first golfers off the tee in Round 1 Thursday morning.
Francesco Molinari, Italy (125-1)
Molinari has been hit or miss this season, but he has hit rather well in some big tournaments with top-10 finishes at both the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship.
Too young to have played at Royal Troon the past couple of times it hosted the British Open, Molinari has played well at this tournament a couple of times the past three years. His best finish came in 2013 (ninth place), and he finished in 15th place two years ago.
Coming off an 8th place finish at the end of June at the Quicken Loans National, Molinari’s strong iron game should serve him well as he shoots for the pins on the big greens this weekend at Royal Troon.