Complete 2016 NBA Playoffs preview, predictions for Eastern Conference

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·April 13, 2016
Courtesy of Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports

After a long regular season, the 2016 NBA Playoffs are finally here. Rejoice.

While the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs will generate the majority of the attention, the more interesting bracket is in the Eastern Conference.

Over the course of the season, it was generally the deeper conference for the first time in years.

If a few games over the last two days of the regular season had gone differently, the three through six spots could have been completely flipped. Also, while the Eastern Conference has a very clear favorite, its No. 2 seed hasn’t won a playoff series since 2001.

So, the Eastern Conference side of the 2016 NBA Playoffs is pretty wide open. Still, no preview would be complete without predictions. So, before you enjoy the playoffs, have a look at at what you can expect to see.

No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 8 Detroit Pistons

Season Series: Detroit wins 3-1

Key Matchup: Kyrie Irving vs. Reggie Jackson

While all eyes will be on LeBron James, the battle of the point guards is more intriguing in this one. The top players on Cleveland’s roster are better than the top players on Detroit’s, and it’s not terribly close. With that said, Detroit has some depth.

If the Pistons can manage to cut into the advantage that the Cavs have at the top of their roster, this series can be interesting. The best chance of that happening is for Jackson, the Pistons leading scorer, to get the better of Irving at the point guard battle.

The Cavaliers will win if…

…They stay healthy and don’t beat themselves.

Cleveland has the best player in the series and in reality, probably the best three players in the series. It’s awfully hard to overcome that in basketball.

There’s no way that Detroit should beat Cleveland. In reality, they shouldn’t be competitive. If the Cavaliers don’t issue too many turnovers or have an abundance of defensive breakdowns, they’ll win easily.

The Pistons will win if…

…A lot of things go their way. Their best chance to comes if they can use their greatest advantage, Andre Drummond. A big series from Drummond revolves around two things.

He needs to dominate this series in the paint, grabbing rebounds, blocking shots, and making high-percentage baskets.

Two, if that happens, the Cavs would almost certainly resort to fouling Drummond, making the man with a sub-40 percent career free-throw percentage beat them from the line. Somehow, some way, he’d need to nail down about 60 percent of his free throws.

So, the path to a Pistons upset exists, it just isn’t a smooth one.

Prediction: Cleveland wins 4-1

While it’d be fun to be contrarian and go with the stunning upset, facts are facts. LeBron hasn’t dropped even a game in the first round since 2012. He’s never lost a first-round playoff series, his Cavs/Heat teams are 40-7 in first round play and have never been pushed beyond six games.

Expect something similar here. The Pistons could win one in front of their home fans and maybe keep another game or two close, but the Cavaliers will advance and will probably do so with little trouble.

No. 2 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 7 Indiana Pacers

Season Series: Toronto wins 3-1

Key Matchup: Kyle Lowry vs. George Hill

While DeMar DeRozan and Paul George are the top scorers from each team and figure to see a lot of each other, the point guard battle will decide this one.

The Raptors offense runs through Lowry, so Hill will need to find a way to be pesky on him, limiting his options, and making him commit to passing or going to the basket as early as he possibly can.

If that happens, the games become lower scoring, which generally favors the underdog. If not, then Toronto takes full advantage of its depth and it’s a long series for the Pacers.

The Raptors will win if…

…They win the three-point battle. These two teams are pretty evenly matched statistically, but the three-point battle is a different story. Toronto entered the final game of the season with the NBA’s fourth highest three-point shooting percentage at 37 percent, while Indiana was only 16th at 35 percent. Conversely, the Pacers tanked as the third best in three point defense, as opponents make only 33.4% of their shots from long range, while the Raptors held the other extreme, allowing 37.3% of threes to be made, the second worst total in the NBA.

If Toronto wins the three-point battle, it’s awfully hard to see them losing this series.

The Pacers will win if…

…George dominates on the offensive end. If that happens, the Raptors have to focus more energy on stopping him, thereby opening the floor up for the rest of his teammates. Of course, the second part of that would be those other players taking advantage of those openings.

But none of that happens if George isn’t the best player on the floor.

Prediction: Toronto wins 4-1

Toronto has one of the best home records in the NBA. It’s hard to believe that the regular season series was a fluke, as the Raptors handily beat Indiana in their most recent game, even without DeRozan. Indiana just doesn’t have the depth to prevail in this one.

No. 3 Miami Heat vs. No. 6 Charlotte Hornets

Season Series: Tied 2-2

Key Matchup: Hassan Whiteside vs. Marvin Williams/Al Jefferson

As we’ll soon go over, three-point shooting, especially from Charlotte, will be incredibly important in this series. Since even the best three-point shooters only hit on about 45 percent of their shots, rebounding will be important.

Whiteside grabbed nearly 12 boards a game during the regular season. Doing that and limiting the Hornets’ chances from distance will be crucial. Conversely, Williams and Jefferson grabbing boards to extend possessions will give them a tremendous edge.

The Heat will win if…

…They chase the Hornets off of the three-point line. Charlotte was a top-10 three-point shooting team during the regular season, while Miami was in the bottom 10. If we take away the three-point shot, the Heat have the better team, so it will be imperative that they limit the Hornets’ outside shooting.

The Hornets will win if…

…They hit their threes. This one is a little too easy. If Charlotte is hitting their three-point shots, it keeps Hassan Whiteside from just camping out in the paint to block shots. If Whiteside is out of the paint, then it opens things up for Charlotte to drive the lane and get more points in the paint. The Hornets’ three-point shooting really is the key for this series.

Prediction: Charlotte 4-2

These are two very different teams, but Charlotte’s advantages from the outside are too great to ignore. Miami ranked 12th in the NBA during the regular season in opponent’s three-point percentage. And while that’s not bad, it’s not good enough to think that the Hornets will be chased off of the line.

No. 4 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 5 Boston Celtics

Season Series: Atlanta wins 3-1

Key Matchup: Jeff Teague vs. Avery Bradley

The inclusion of Dennis Schroder and Isaiah Thomas adds a twist here, but it’s likely that Teague and Bradley will see a lot of one another. Atlanta is second in the NBA in assists per game while Boston is sixth.

Both teams rely a lot on balance, as neither has what you would call an elite scorer. They do both have depth, but will need to move the ball around to do well in the postseason. That, of course, starts with the point guard. In this, the team that wins the battle of the point guards have a strong inside track towards winning this series.

The Hawks will win if…

…They get the ball into the paint. It’s awfully hard to imagine Boston hanging in this series if Al Horford and Paul Millsap are given the ball in the paint.

Those two guys give Atlanta such a huge advantage that the Celtics would need to own the perimeter to even compete if Horford and Millsap get a lot of touches.

The Celtics will win if…

…They get really hot from the outside.

Getting into a perimeter battle against the Hawks may not seem like a winner for the Celtics, but Atlanta will destroy Boston in the paint. The Celtics have the personnel to win by way of the outside shot, they just need Bradley and a few others to get hot.

Prediction: Hawks win 4-2

The regular season series doesn’t always mean too much in the NBA but in this case, it does. This is a bad matchup for Boston. They don’t have a great inside presence to match Atlanta’s big men and it’d be a pretty significant development if their backcourt did more than fight the Hawks’ to a draw.

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