The college football schedule as of late hasn’t delivered a ton of must-see matchups and ranked-versus-ranked games that dominate the slate. While the college football games today aren’t necessarily jam-packed with heavyweight fights, the release of the College Football Playoff rankings does deliver some added excitement for the matchups today.
Before Saturday’s Week 11 college football action kicks off, we’re delivering our college football picks for the best games today.
(9) Texas Tech Red Raiders – 27, (8) BYU Cougars – 20
It’s safe to say few expected coming into the season that there would be a top-10 matchup between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the BYU Cougars. The two programs are having outstanding seasons, and this matchup carries significant College Football Playoff implications. A bit surprisingly for a matchup between these two defenses, the point total (52.5) is relatively high in Week 11.
BYU is a run-first team, coming into Saturday ranked 29th in rushing rate (57.23 percent) while averaging 4.6 yards per carry. The trouble for the Cougars is that this Texas Tech defense has the third-highest stop rate (81.8 percent) in college football, and it allows just 1.02 points per drive (fourth in FBS). It’s also worth mentioning that the Red Raiders have the best run defense in the nation, allowing just 2.41 yards per carry and 74.6 rushing yards per game.
Texas Tech boasts the defensive advantage over BYU’s offense, and it has home-field advantage in an 11 a.m. local time kickoff. Pushing this one even further in the Red Raiders’ favor, quarterback Behren Morton is healthy, and that gives Texas Tech an edge at quarterback over BYU’s Bear Bachmeier. We expect the Cougars to at least keep it relatively close, but the superior roster stands out in this one.
(3) Texas A&M Aggies – 24, (19) Missouri Tigers – 14
With all due respect to the Missouri Tigers, only being a touchdown underdog at home against the Texas A&M Aggies feels like it is giving too much grace to Mizzou. Tigers quarterback Beau Pribula is out for the season, the team is forced to turn to freshman quarterback Matt Zollers. He performed admirably in relief against Vanderbilt, posting a 92.6 ESPN QBR with 138 pssing yards and 1 touchdown. We don’t expect nearly as crisp of a performance this week against Texas A&M.
For one think, Mike Elko has had two weeks to prepare for Zollers and that puts a freshman quarterback at a significant disadvantage. Missouri will try and take some of the weight off Zollers by feeding running back Ahmad Hardy. However, after averaging 146 rushing yards per game in his first seven contests, Hardy is now averaging just 69 rushing yards per game in the last three weeks versus SEC opponents.
Texas A&M has held opponents to just a 3.87 yards-per-carry average this season and it can tailor its game plan to stopping Hardy. On top of that, Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed is coming off a strong two-game stretch and he’s played pretty well on the road (155.4 QB rating, 10 total touchdowns) in three games this season. This just feels like a very special Texas A&M team and one that can dispatch Mizzou without issue.
(6) Oregon Ducks – 21, Iowa Hawkeyes – 17
This Week 11 matchup means a lot to both programs. For the Oregon Ducks, they need a quality win on the road because their resume right now is a 7-1 record with the biggest win coming in double overtime versus a Penn State team that’s now 3-5. Meanwhile, the host Iowa Hawkeyes want to demonstrate to the country that this is legitimately one of the 20 best teams in college football right now.
Weather could be a factor in this matchup, with Iowa City expected to have a chance of rain and moderate winds on game day. Given the Ducks are a pass-first team (53.55 percent passing rate), that matters. It’s also worth noting that Iowa fared better against the Indiana Hoosiers than Oregon did, limiting Fernando Mendoza to 13-of-23 passes completed, and the offense went just 6-for-15 on third downs.
We think the Hawkeyes, potentially with the benefit of favorable weather conditions, will be able to make the Ducks play on their terms. However, Iowa (58.1 percent rushing rate) will likely have issues running the football effectively versus Oregon (3.34 yards per carry allowed). Dante Moore will do just enough to win, with the arm talent and athleticism cutting through the wind and rain to beat Iowa.
(15) Vanderbilt Commodores – 17, Auburn Tigers – 10
The Vanderbilt Commodores have demonstrated the ability under Clark Lea and Diego Pavia to rebound from a loss. We saw it last season when Vandy lost a heartbreaker to Texas at home and then traveled to Auburn and won 17-7. One year later, the Commodores get to host the Auburn Tigers, but this time without the benefit of facing a Hugh Freeze-coached team.
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We have no doubt that Auburn’s defense, now under interim head coach D.J. Durkin, will make things interesting. After all, coming into college football games today, the Tigers are allowing just 2.49 yards per carry and 83.6 rushing yards per game this season. So, Vandy won’t find success on the ground.
If Auburn had a settled quarterback situation and home-field advantage, it might upset the Commodores in Week 11. However, Vanderbilt is an excellent team when playing at home, and Pavia’s ability to deliver scoring drives in critical situations is a sure thing at this point. It won’t be a pretty game, but the Commodores come out of it with an 8-2 record.
(4) Alabama Crimson Tide – 28, LSU Tigers, – 14
The LSU Tigers fired Brian Kelly, ridding themselves of a head coach whose very presence seemed to be negatively impacting this team. However, LSU is playing on the road with an offensive play-caller who has never done it in the Power 4, and he has to try to find a path to success in Tuscaloosa. That’s simply not a recipe for success.
Related: LSU Tigers Coaching Candidates to Replace Brian Kelly
It’s also worth keeping in mind that LSU’s defense has allowed a 5.0 yards-per-carry average and a 48.7 percent third-down conversion rate in its last three games. Meanwhile, the Alabama Crimson Tide have a 49.6 percent third-down conversion rate this season, and Ty Simpson has a 20-1 TD-INT line on the season. So, for as relieved as LSU players are that Kelly is gone and as much as this game means to that locker room, the Crimson Tide are the superior team, and they’ll show it at home on Saturday.
