Matt Johnson
A field of 64 in the NCAA Tournament has quickly been cut down. However, there has been very little chaos in March Madness, as evidenced by the fact that 13 of the teams are seeded fifth or higher.
That means the best college basketball teams this season largely avoided upsets, leading to a battle between true heavyweights later this week. Let’s dive into our Sweet Sixteen predictions.
Purdue Boilermakers 83, Texas Longhorns 74
Credit where it’s due to the Texas Longhorns, who made it to the Sweet Sixteen when we predicted they would get knocked out of the First Four. The Longhorns squeaked by NC State (68-66) but then managed to take out No. 6-seeded BYU and No. 3-seeded Gonzaga by 14 combined points. However, as much as Texas has improved defensively during the NCAA Tournament, we don’t see that continuing versus the Purdue Boilermakers. Facing a team that had the ninth-highest field goal percentage (50.3 percent) and ranked first in KenPom‘s offensive efficiency during the regular season, we think four Boilermakers will score in double figures, with Trey Kaufman-Renn leading the team in scoring and sending Purdue to the Elite Eight.
Nebraska Cornhuskers 72, Iowa Hawkeyes 68
We’re only getting one regular-season rematch in the Sweet Sixteen: a battle between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Iowa Hawkeyes. The two Big Ten rivals will battle for both a spot in the Elite Eight and historic bragging rights. It’s also a shot at revenge for Nebraska star Pryce Sandfort against his former team as he goes head-to-head against another standout guard, Bennett Stirtz. Iowa won the first meeting 57-52 on February 17, but Nebraska took the regular-season finale 84-75 in overtime on March 8. In the rubber match, we think the Cornhuskers’ defense will pave the way to a hard-fought victory.
Arizona Wildcats 85, Arkansas Razorbacks 72
Could freshman Darius Acuff Jr. carry the Arkansas Razorbacks to the Elite Eight? It’s certainly possible. Projected to be a top-10 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, Acuff has already combined for 60 points and 13 assists in two March Madness games thus far. However, the 6-foot-3 guard—as is a theme with this team—leaves much to be desired defensively. We fully expect Arizona Wildcats guard Jaden Bradley, the Big 12 Player of the Year, to take full advantage of that. Coach John Calipari can feel good about his program advancing further than Kentucky did, but the run likely ends here.
Houston Cougars 79, Illinois Fighting Illini 77
It’s probably not wise to pick against Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars in the Sweet Sixteen. What we have a lot of confidence in right now is the ease with which the Illinois Fighting Illini score, as they’ve demonstrated in their first two tournament wins. The standout for Illinois has clearly been freshman guard Keaton Wagler—the Big Ten Freshman of the Year—but this is a deep group featuring high-impact transfers like Andrej Stojakovic. However, home-court advantage matters immensely here. Sampson’s ability to prepare his team for high-stakes environments, paired with a pro-Houston atmosphere at the Toyota Center, should be enough to swing a very tight game in favor of the Cougars.
Duke Blue Devils 84, St. John’s Red Storm 75
Even with injuries that are preventing the Duke Blue Devils from looking like the clear title favorites, freshman Cameron Boozer is proving he can carry this team on a deep March Madness run. He has delivered a double-double in both tournament games so far, including a dominant 19-point, 11-rebound performance against TCU where he shot 70 percent from the field. It’s also hard not to be impressed by how Isaiah Evans has filled the void left by Caleb Foster’s foot injury; Evans has averaged 17.7 points over his last three outings, including a clutch 17-point showing to help sink the Horned Frogs. We think the star power of this duo is what propels the Blue Devils to a statement win over Rick Pitino and St. John’s.
Related: Cameron Boozer May Be No. 1 Pick for Specific Team
Michigan Wolverines 88, Alabama Crimson Tide 74
We think the biggest blowout of the Sweet Sixteen comes when the Alabama Crimson Tide take the court against the Michigan Wolverines. Even making it this far without Aden Holloway—who remains suspended following his arrest last week—is impressive. This program did it convincingly by crushing Hofstra and Texas Tech by 20-plus points. However, there’s a reason Michigan went 19-1 in the Big Ten this season. The quartet of Aday Mara, Elliot Cadeau, Yaxel Lendeborg, and Morez Johnson Jr. beats what Alabama has to offer. Michigan has a “core four” who can play different roles and take over games at different moments. That’s what you need to reach the Elite Eight, and the Wolverines will likely make it look easy on Friday.
Michigan Statae Spartans 72, UConn Huskies 69
Dan Hurley’s UConn Huskies versus Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans. Need we say more? The most exciting part of this matchup is the opportunity to see what guard Jeremy Fears Jr. can do in the biggest game of his life. While Fears is a high-level facilitator, what stands out about Michigan State this season is how well-rounded the team is on both ends of the floor. The new-look Huskies have shown more cohesion as of late, but we think Fears is headed for a double-double that, paired with great defense from his teammates, sends Izzo to the Elite Eight.
Tennessee Volunteers 68, Iowa State Cyclones 67
Rick Barnes is attempting to make it three consecutive Elite Eight appearances with the Tennessee Volunteers. Complicating that is the fact that freshman Nate Ament is playing hurt. On paper, the Iowa State Cyclones lineup is better, but All-American forward Joshua Jefferson will either be out or playing through an ankle injury in the Sweet Sixteen. We think that matters, especially against a physical Volunteers team that defends very well. In a nail-biter, guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie rallies the Volunteers in the second half and hits a clutch shot that sends Tennessee back to the Elite Eight for the third consecutive year.
