Chase Elliott fractured his left tibia in a snowboarding accident in Colorado before the NASCAR Cup Series race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Six weeks later, Elliott will strap into the car for the first time since the accident at Martinsville Speedway.
Let’s dive into the driver of the No. 9 car’s playoff situation as he climbs back behind the wheel this weekend.
Chase Elliott’s path to the 2023 NASCAR playoffs without a victory
Elliott currently sits 34th in the point standings as the lowest full-time driver behind Ty Dillon. He only competed in the first two races of the 2023 NASCAR season so the 49 points he earned are minimal as the sport enters its ninth official points race.
Currently, Elliott is 134 points behind the playoff bubble held by RFK Racing driver Chris Buescher. It seems like a large gap but there is a possibility that Elliott can easily catch and make his way into the playoffs on points alone.
Christopher Bell leads the point standings and clears Buescher by 98 points through eight races. It seems very likely that Bell will end up being 134 points above the cut-line sooner rather than later which is one example of why Elliott should be OK.
The 2020 Cup Series champion has some of the best equipment with Hendrick Motorsports. It would be shocking to see Elliott not come home with a victory during the regular season but it is hard to win in the Cup Series.
Depending on how long it takes Elliott to get back to his old self, the points situation might not be a problem if the cut-line is actually the 16th driver in the point standings. This was not the case last season when Martin Truex Jr. missed the playoffs despite being fourth in the standings.
This also brings up another scenario. Let’s say Elliott ends up winning a race but doesn’t crack the top-16 in points, it doesn’t mean he will be locked into the playoffs right away. If there are 17 winners and the driver of the No. 9 car is the lowest winner in the standings, he would be out.
It doesn’t seem very likely that NASCAR will see 17 winners; however, there have been seven different winners through eight races. The possibility is there and it means Elliott needs to perform well soon.
As said above, Elliott will probably win a race during the 2023 regular season and there likely won’t be 17 winners. It is simply important to highlight these possibilities because the NextGen car’s debut season ended up with a total of 19 different winners.
If Elliott does win a race in the regular season, which tracks represent the most likely place for him to make it happen? Continue reading to find out more about the schedule ahead!
Related: Chase Elliott’s conversations with Dale Earnhardt Jr. revealed following leg injury
Evaluating the best tracks for Chase Elliott to secure a victory
The good news for Elliott is that the majority of his best tracks are ahead. One of them is coming this weekend at Martinsville Speedway but it is very hard to imagine Elliott performing at a high level in his first race back in action.
Therefore, the 28-year-old driver’s outlook will go beyond this weekend, starting with a great stretch of races following Martinsville. NASCAR heads to Talladega and Dover the following two weekends. Remember the last time the sport went to those tracks?
Elliott won his only playoff race at Talladega while claiming his first victory of the 2022 season at Dover. This could not be a better stretch for Elliott to begin his comeback as it represents two great opportunities.
In May, NASCAR will have its longest race of the season at Charlotte Motor Speedway with the Coca-Cola 600. The 2020 Cup Series champion has run well at Charlotte and should be race fit by the time it arrives.
Meanwhile, Sonoma and Watkins Glen are during the summer months and he should be the favorite every time NASCAR enters those venues. The next road course isn’t for two more months so it will allow Elliott to get into a groove.
Outside of these specific tracks, there are two more superspeedway events at Atlanta and Daytona. Elliott has always run well on superspeedway tracks so they will represent a good opportunity for a win too.
Overall, Elliott missed some of his strong tracks but the majority of them still remain. It would be shocking to see him not secure a victory but winning in the Cup Series isn’t easy. The path to the playoffs starts this weekend at Martinsville and Elliott will be up for the task.
Whether you are watching Elliott’s return live or looking for how to watch NASCAR on TV, Sportsnaut has you covered for the upcoming weekend at Martinsville Speedway!