Like the last leg of the Kentucky Derby, the AL playoff race is coming down to the final moments.
While the National League playoff teams are pretty much set in stone, the AL playoff picture is pretty much a “pick em” at this point. The Yankees, Astros, Rangers and Twins are all vying for Wild Card spots, but which teams are we buying as legitimate contenders, and which teams are we selling? Let’s see.
Sell: New York Yankees (77-60)
Up until Sept. 9, if I were a betting man, this would be the one team bubble team I would have put money on on to make the playoffs. Whether it was by way of winning the AL East or winning the Wild Card, The Yankees were in great shape. To date, they are 1.5 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East and are 3.5 games ahead of the Texas Rangers for the top Wild Card spot. However, with remaining series against the Blue Jays and Rays, the Yankees can’t afford to slip.
Oh, and more importantly they just received some horrific news that right-hander Nathan Eovaldi will likely miss the rest of the season with elbow inflammation, and Mark Teixeira’s return is questionable with nerve issues in his leg. With the subtractions of their top pitcher and big-time slugger, combined with the consistent play by the Blue Jays, the Yankees could very well be watching the playoffs from their homes in October.
Buy: Texas Rangers (73-64)
Sitting just one game behind the Houston Astros for the division lead and 2.5 games ahead of the Minnesota Twins for the second Wild Card spot, the Rangers are in a real good position to make the playoffs. Assuming the Astros take care of business and win the AL West and the Toronto Blue Jays hold on to win the AL East, Texas could very well take the first Wild Card spot. Of course those are some major assumptions, but the Rangers can essentially control their own destiny.
Remember, this is the team that came back after being down 10 games in the AL West just a couple months ago so they are hot, and hot teams always make a run come playoff time. With the addition of ace Cole Hamels, who survived a scary line drive on Wednesday night, and their new-found timely home run hitting, the Rangers are armed for a pivotal four-game series with the Houston Astros. If the Rangers can take that series, or at least two games, they will be in a great spot to enter October.
Sell: Los Angeles Angels (69-69)
The Angles are 5.5 games out of the AL West and 4.5 games behind for the second Wild Card spot. Unlike the Astros, Rangers and Twins, the Angels are a significant amount of games behind both the division and Wild Card to make a run. Either the Astros, Rangers, Yankees or Twins are going to take the first Wild Card spot, so that leaves the Angels battling with the Indians and Rays (very unlikely) for the second Wild Card Spot.
With Albert Pujols limited to the DH position because of inflammation in his foot and the loss of second baseman Johnny Giavotella—the Angels’ most consistent hitter—LA is in some serious trouble. After making zero trade-deadline moves and then losing 19 games in August, the Angels will need something short of a miracle to make the playoffs in 2015.
Buy: Minnesota Twins (71-67)
Up until very recently, the only chance the Twins had at making the playoffs was via the second Wild Card spot, but things have changed quickly. The Blue Jays are pretty much a lock for the AL East, and seeing as the Yankees are a toss up, the Twins could still take the top AL Wild Card spot. In a truly up and down season, the recent play of the Twins should have the Minnesota faithful hopeful (12-6 over the past three weeks).
The Twins are relying pretty heavily on rookie Miguel Sano, who has played just 56 games in the MLB. At some point, Sano could struggle—it’s inevitable (see the Astros’ Carlos Correa), right? Not necessarily.
The Yankees have hit a bit of a skid and have been bitten by the injury bug, whereas the Twins have not. If the Yankees continue their collapse, look for the Twins to slide into the top spot of the AL Wild Card.
Sell: Cleveland Indians (67-70)
While you can never fully count a Terry Francona team out, this 2015 Indians team has just too much ground to make up. Though they have great starting pitching, their hitting has been far too inconsistent to make a significant playoff run. With the loss of 2014 Cy Young winner Corey Kluber to a hamstring injury, the Indians will really need some help from other AL teams.
While Michael Brantley is doing everything in his power (hitting five home runs in the last seven days) the rest of the Indians are struggling to produce runs. To date, the Indians are six games out for the second Wild Card spot with just three weeks left in the regular season. In even worse position than the Angels, the Indians will also need a miracle to play in October.
Buy: Houston Astros (75-64)
While the Astros are trying everything in their power to lose the AL West, look for Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel and key trade deadline addition Scott Kazmir to help stop the bleeding. With the Rangers playing their best baseball all season (one game behind the Astros for the top spot in the AL West) the Astros could very well turn their magical season into a one game play-in Wild Card game.
The Astros have one crucial remaining series with both the Angles and Rangers, which will make or break their playoff chances. If there is one aspect with the Astros that should give their fans hope, it’s this: They will not go down without a fight. This is why the Astros will not only make the playoffs but will hold on to win the AL West.
Sell: Washington Nationals (71-68)
Maybe the biggest sell on this list, the Nationals started the season as legitimate World Series contenders. General Manager Mike Rizzo made a big-time trade for closer Jonathan Papelbon, moving Drew Storen to the set up position. Together, Storen and Papelbon should shut teams down late in games in October, if the team makes it there.
They are seven games behind the New York Mets in the NL East, and 9.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs for the second Wild Card spot. In order for the Nationals to have a chance at making the playoffs, it is going to take a massive collapse by the Mets, which has happened before, and their pitching staff is going to have to keep the runs to a minimum. If the Nationals do not make the playoffs, Manager Matt Williams could very well be unemployed in the next month.