Overreaction Monday is always fun, especially after just one week of action.
There were some really interesting developments—some good, and some very bad—during the NFL’s Week 1 schedule on Sunday. Of course, along with those developments, without fail, the accompanying hot takes can be outrageously over the top.
According to Twitter and other social media platforms, Peyton Manning is absolutely done after he showed signs of age and struggled to find open receivers, Marcus Mariota is the next NFL demigod and Jameis Winston is a scrub.
These are just a few of the hot takes dominating the NFL landscape right now.
Let’s go ahead and press the pause button on some of these judgements. But are they all crazy? That’s what we’re going to determine. So without further ado, here we go.
Buying: Peyton Manning’s arm strength is a big problem for the Denver Broncos
Lame ducks are starting to show up in Denver.
On. A. Regular. Basis.
The velocity just isn’t there for Manning, and we are only in the second week of September. Fatigue hasn’t even begun to set in, yet the legendary quarterback is struggling to even get simple 10-yard out-routes to his receivers with any pop at all.
Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller believes he could do a better job than Manning at this point in terms of velocity, and he may not be wrong.
Here’s an example of what we’re taking about.
Manning had nothing on this throw. Granted, he had pressure in his face, but this ball hung in the air a long, long time. Without the ability to step into his throw, Manning couldn’t get any zip on the ball at all. And this was not a long throw.
We’ve been keeping our eye on this development. So have others who follow the game, including NFL Media analyst Brian Baldinger, who can’t believe what he’s seeing when watching tape of the future Hall of Famer.
“When you watch some of these throws, you can’t believe it could possibly be the same guy. You just (wonder) is it the arm, is it the new offense, is he thinking too much, is that possible … those plays are lay-ups for Peyton Manning.”
The Broncos were supposed to help cover up any deficiencies with a run-first approach this year under new head coach Gary Kubiak. That was what we heard all summer long, yet when bullets started flying in a tough battle against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday the Broncos couldn’t stop passing the ball.
Manning threw the ball 40 times, completing 24 passes for 175. The 4.4 yards per attempt is beyond pathetic. Granted, Denver’s running game was crap, too, but they only ran 25 times. That’s a 5-8 run-to-pass ratio, and it’s not going to cut it going forward.
Kubiak must seriously adjust his strategy in the weeks to come to account for Manning’s “significantly diminished” arm strength.
Selling: Jameis Winston is the next JaMarcus Russell
Coming out of Florida State, it was known Winston had a bit of a problem with discernment when it comes to protecting the football. Heck, we recently made predictions for all the first-round draft picks from the 2015 draft class, and we had Winston’s interception total at 24.
However, when his first NFL pass resulted in a 26-yard pick-six to Coty Sensabaugh—right after Mariota had just thrown a 52-yard touchdown strike—social media was on fire with hot takes about just how bad he will flame out in the NFL, with many comparing him to Winston.
Never mind that Brett Favre also started his career with a pick-six.
At the end of the day, Winston completed less than half his passes (16 of 33) for 210 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. His quarterback rating was 64.0. It was a miserable outing for the rookie in his first action.
However, people need to realize Tennessee’s defense is being coached by Dick LeBeau, who is notoriously brutal to rookie quarterbacks.
Winston is plenty talented. His arm is as live as any of the top quarterbacks in the league. He has extraordinary anticipation, is intelligent and possesses an outstanding work ethic. He’s not going to flame out like Russell did with the Oakland Raiders.
No doubt he’ll take plenty of lumps as a rookie, but so have almost all the great quarterbacks the league has seen.
Buying : Marcus Mariota is an NFL demigod
Ok, so he’s not REALLY divine, but Mariota is a legitimate superstar in the making.
While Winston flailed away during his first NFL start, Mariota was so good his farts smelled of lavender and his sweat glistened with gold flakes.
The Titans rookie finished with a perfect 158.3 passer rating, completing 13-of-16 passes for 209 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions.
He was even pulled in the fourth quarter—receiving the preferred veteran’s treatment—when the game was out of hand and head coach Ken Whisenhunt inserted backup Zach Mettenberger to play in garbage time.
While most of America marveled at the brilliant performance, Mariota’s teammates weren’t surprised at all.
“Now he has shown everybody what he can do in a real game and a lot of people will be surprised,’’ receiver Kendall Wright said, via the team’s official website. “But that’s the way he played all training camp and all of the preseason. It’s what we expected.”
Mariota entered the league with a phenomenal set of skills, including the most important attribute for NFL quarterbacks, which is pin-point accuracy. His teammates raved about it all summer long, and fans finally got to see it in action for a full game.
Selling: Seattle Seahawks might not win half their games
There is no sugar-coating how bad the Seahawks were in some ways on Sunday in St. Louis.
The offense was abysmal, featuring an front line that couldn’t protect quarterback Russell Wilson or keep the Rams from abusing Marshawn Lynch and the rest of Seattle’s running backs. Wilson was sacked six times and seemed to be running away from pressure at least half the time he dropped back to pass.
Seattle’s defense didn’t fare well, either. Aside from a couple of huge plays, including a fumble returned for a touchdown, the “Legion of Boom” was mostly impotent. Meanwhile Kam Chancellor is still sitting at home. No doubt his allegiances were torn on Sunday, as he personally won (the Seahawks need him, clearly) while his teammates lost.
Before casting a shadow of doom on Seattle’s season, however, it’s important to note two key factors.
First, the Rams have a ferocious defense, especially at home. That front four—with Chris Long, Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers and Robert Quinn—is capable of dismantling even the most glued-together offensive lines in the league.
Second, Chancellor is going to come back, and the Seahawks are going to be much more cohesive on the back end when he does.
Do the Seahawks have some issues? Yes, and the offensive line is definitely an area of concern. That said, this is a team that still managed to force overtime on the road despite mistake after mistake. The offense will get better as the season wears on, and the Seahawks will still make the playoffs, despite this inauspicious beginning.
Buying: Oakland Raiders won’t win more than four games
No offense to the Cincinnati Bengals, but it’s not like the Raiders lost because Marvin Lewis’ gang was just so amazing.
Oakland looked really bad, and quarterback Derek Carr was sketchy. He was jittery in the pocket and inaccurate on many easy throws—not the kind of start the Raiders needed from him to open his sophomore season. Worse still, he injured his hand and had to leave the game, though thankfully the x-rays came back negative.
Matt McGloin wasn’t great in reserve, either. He completed a high volume of passes but the team only managed 183 passing yards between both quarterbacks, averaging only 4.7 yards per attempt—abysmal numbers by any measure.
Adding insult to injury, rookie receiver Amari Cooper received some rough treatment from Bengals defensive back Adam Jones, who ripped his helmet off and then slammed his head on that helmet.
Perhaps more concerning than Oakland’s sputtering offense was the team’s defense, which got zero pressure on quarterback Andy Dalton, despite the recent addition of Aldon Smith, and which was unable to stop the Bengals from running at will.
Cincinnati moved the ball up and down the field on Oakland’s supposedly improved defense, gaining 396 total yards en route to a 33-13 victory.
The Raiders do have more talent this year than they have in recent memory, but in no way is this team ready to ascend out of the basement of the AFC West. There are too many systemic issues at play for head coach Jack Del Rio to fix at this time.
Selling: Blake Bortles is a bust
Bortles had a miserable day playing against the Carolina Panthers, but then again that sounds like something we’ll be saying about opposing quarterbacks who face this dominant unit on a weekly basis.
Even after Luke Kuechly left with a concussion, Carolina’s defense was in attack mode, dictating the pace of the game.
Bortles put up similar numbers to Manning on this day, passing for 183 yards on 40 attempts, adding a touchdown and two interceptions. One of the interceptions was not necessarily his fault, as his arm was hit when he threw the pass.
It’s actually very strange that he did throw the ball that much, considering Jacksonville was successful on the ground, averaging 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. Offensive coordinator Greg Olson should take note of this for future reference.
Bortles will bounce back from this difficult lesson. He was outstanding during the preseason and will continue to build on that progress. And, don’t forget, he is without the team’s star tight end Julius Thomas, who is expected to return to action around Week 4.
Buying: Jay Cutler is done as the starter in Chicago after 2015
At this point, there is no doubt Jay Cutler’s time as the starter in Chicago is coming to an end. Nobody should be surprised if he ends up getting benched at some point this season, to be honest. Cutler stunk up the joint at home on Sunday against the hated Green Bay Packers, and a late interception sealed the embarrassing performance and a loss for the Bears.
In the end, the veteran completed exactly half his passes (18 of 36) for 225 yards with a touchdown and that critical interception—one that has some historic value, and not the good kind.
Matt Forte carried Chicago in Week 1, rushing for 141 yards at an amazing 5.9 yards-per-carry clip while adding another 25 yards on five receptions. Taking those five away from Cutler’s total of 18 completions, we find a devastating lack of production from Chicago’s current quarterback to actual receiving targets.
Cutler was the subject of trade rumors this offseason, barely a year after he signed a lucrative seven-year contract with Chicago, worth $126.7 million, with $54 million guaranteed.
He’s been an interception machine throughout his career, and despite his enormous talent has never been perceived as a guy who gives his all to the game and his teammates. Barring an unexpected turnaround, he’s going to be playing somewhere else in 2016.
Selling: The growing feud between Chuck Pagano and Ryan Grigson will sink the Colts
Just like we saw in 2014 when rumblings of a Jim Harbaugh/Trent Baalke feud were developing before the season began, whispers of discontent are emerging from the Indianapolis Colts franchise in similar fashion.
Head coach Pagano and general manager Grigson are reportedly butting heads, and people are beginning to wonder if the 2015 Colts team will tank the same way Harbaugh’s 2014 San Francisco 49ers did. Of course the team’s brutal opening-day loss to the Buffalo Bills only further fanned the flames of this theory.
It would be a mistake, however, to assume one bad game against a really good team on the road means the season is doomed.
Pagano is in lame-duck status in the final year of his current contract and was reportedly “insulted” by owner Jim Irsay’s one-year extension last year, per Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports.
“Given their differences of opinion on staff matters, personnel issues, a growing inter-personal strain and the minimal attempt made to extend Pagano, it’s created a culture where any coach would feel as if his future is elsewhere.”
There are major differences when you compare this situation to the one in San Francisco last year.
First off, Pagano isn’t Harbaugh, who is the kind of person who eventually eats away at your soul if you are around him long enough. Pagano is an easy-going guy who isn’t going to rock the boat, despite his differences with Grigson.
Secondly, Andrew Luck isn’t your average franchise quarterback—he’s the best young passer the league has seen since Peyton Manning. Though he had a poor outing against Buffalo’s terrifying defense, you’d be a fool to bet against him in Week 2 when the Colts host the New York Jets.
The Colts will be fine. They’ll win the weak AFC South, and there is plenty of time for Pagano and his staff to get the roster playoff-ready. This is still a team capable of winning big playoff games, and any discontent going on between Pagano and the front office will not have any bearing on the team’s fortunes.