The latest NFL MVP odds have Brock Purdy ranked sixth behind five other quarterbacks. That would make sense if five other quarterbacks have played better than the San Francisco 49ers’ passer.
The problem is, not one has.
Not Jalen Hurts, who’s led the Philadelphia Eagles to the NFL’s best record. Not two-time and reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes, whose claim to the top spot slipped through his receivers’ hands Monday night.
Not Lamar Jackson. Not Tua Tagovailoa. Not Dak Prescott. What have any of the previously named quarterbacks done that make them a superior MVP candidate to Brock Purdy entering Week 12 of the NFL season?
Not nearly enough.
The arguments against Purdy, whose 49ers play the NFC West rival Seattle Seahawks on Thanksgiving night, are all stuffing and cranberry sauce, but with no turkey.
The odds themselves reflect an ongoing and rather widespread disbelief that stems from Purdy being “Mr. Irrelevant” as the last pick in the 2022 draft.
But instead of fixating on him being the 262nd overall pick and wondering how 31 teams could possibly overlook him, focus instead on what he’s produced on the field. Comparing him to the other quarterbacks in the MVP conversation, there are no significant metrics to support Purdy as anything but the league’s best quarterback through 10 games.
Try looking at completion percentage, TD percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, QB rating and QBR as worthy numbers to evaluate his performance as effectively and objectively as possible.
In all six categories, the result is the same. Purdy ranks No. 1.
Purdy’s QB rating of 115.1, if it stood for the rest of the season, would rank 11th all-time. Of course, let’s not forget that Purdy achieved a perfect passer rating of 158.3 in the 49ers’ 27-14 victory over Tampa Bay.
To be fair, Jackson has done that twice in his career, and Prescott once. But not this season.
Also rather telling is the yards per attempt stat. Purdy’s 9.7 YPA is the second highest through 10 games in NFL history among quarterbacks with 250 or more passing attempts. The only one higher was Boomer Esiason in 1988 (9.8), while Dan Marino had a 9.7 in 1984 and Aaron Rodgers a 9.6 in 2011. All three went on to win the NFL MVP award.
Brock Purdy’s metrics set him apart
Want more advanced metrics? Pro Football Reference uses Passing Success Rate to assess how well a quarterback performs on each down. Who’s No. 1? Yes, it’s Purdy again (56.3 percent).
Another site has a stat called EVE, for efficiency vs. expected, which measures success on every single play compared to the league average. Once again, Purdy is No. 1.
Uh, notice a trend yet?
Still, critics of Purdy’s MVP candidacy might point to his exceptional teammates as the primary reason for his success. And yes, the 49ers might have the best skill position players in the league, with Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
As Exhibit A, the Purdy non-believers like to call up the 49ers’ recent three-game losing streak because Purdy threw five interceptions while playing without all of his weapons, including Samuel and left tackle Trent Williams, and with McCaffrey limited due to injury.
But doesn’t every quarterback need playmakers to win? Doesn’t Hurts need D’Andre Swift, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith? What about Prescott with CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard, and Brandin Cooks? How about Tagovailoa without Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert?
Quarterbacks don’t win without a strong supporting cast, whether your name is Tom Brady or Brock Purdy. Mahomes won an MVP and a Super Bowl without Hill. But after Monday’s loss to Philadelphia, do you think he wants him back now?
Plus, how did Purdy respond to his first taste of regular-season adversity? With 296 passing yards and three TD passes in a blowout road win over Jacksonville, followed by a perfect outing (333 yards, three TDs) against Tampa Bay. In other words, like an MVP.
Really, the only case against Purdy that has any merit involves team record. Why? Because the quarterback on the team with the best record typically wins the MVP award. That’s happened in seven of the past 10 seasons, meaning Hurts (9-1) would have a distinct advantage over Purdy (7-3).
But if team record is such an important factor, then why does Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff, whose team is 8-2, rank only 11th among oddsmakers for the award?
Argument diffused.
And if you’re left with sheer individual numbers to compare Purdy and Hurts and Goff … well, the numbers are irrefutable. They provide clear direction to the only logical choice.
Brock Purdy for MVP. Bet on it.