After firing Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom, Boston Red Sox chairman Tom Werner declared that the team would be going “full throttle” this offseason, and boy did they! Wait, no they didn’t. They signed Brayan Bello to an extension, but he was already on their roster. The two biggest additions to the team were via trade, and the one free agent signing they made is potentially out for the season.
If the Red Sox had tried just a bit harder you might feel bad for them. The Yankees added Juan Soto and Marcus Stroman. The Orioles are bringing up yet another top prospect in baseball in Jackson Holliday. The Blue Jays are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Tampa Bay is fueled by magic. It’s not looking good for the Sox in 2024.
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While the Sox finished in last place in the AL East last season, they ended the year with a respectable 78-84 record. It’s been an entire five years since Boston won a World Series, and with the removal of Bloom, ownership appears to be looking for a scapegoat for the team’s recent lack of success overall. They’ve made the postseason just once, and that year ended in an ALCS defeat to Houston in 2021.
This run of three out of four seasons below .500 began when the team traded away Mookie Betts ahead of the 2020 season and the closest they’ve finished to the top of the division is when they were second behind the 100-win Rays. They still finished eight games back. Other than that one year, the Sox have been at the bottom of the East and there doesn’t seem to be much sense of urgency to change things.
Red Sox additions and subtractions
Boston made two nice additions to the pitching staff in Liam Hendriks and Lucas Giolito, but the former was already set to miss the 2024 campaign when he was brought aboard, and now the latter is set for elbow surgery, putting his year in jeopardy. Giolito was brought in as a starter who had some nice potential to have a good year, but at the very least he’d provide innings. It was a good plan, but there just wasn’t enough depth behind the move, especially after the team traded away Chris Sale to Atlanta, to have it be enough.
The Sale deal brought back Vaughn Grissom, who is dealing with a groin strain and doesn’t appear likely to be ready for Opening Day. That leaves Tyler O’Neill, whom the club received from the St. Louis Cardinals, as the team’s biggest healthy addition this winter. Full throttle, baby! O’Neill has been a roughly league-average player with the Cardinals for the past two seasons.
As for the players that are no longer with the club, Justin Turner landed in Toronto, Adam Duvall remains unsigned, and Alex Verdugo was traded to the Yankees. In terms of the WAR that the Sox received last year from departing players compared to the projected WAR they’ve brought in, the Sox are in the red at -0.5, and that was before the Giolito injury. He was projected for 0.9 wins. Sure they’ve made moves this winter, but they’re taking one piece away (Verdugo) and replacing them with someone comparable (O’Neil).
If the Red Sox were in the Central, then they could bank on the development of some of their young guys and tout the progress they’ll make, but it’s hard to see more than a slight improvement if any at all.
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Red Sox 2024 outlook
If you haven’t been able to tell thus far, we’re not buying what the Red Sox are selling. They’ll be roughly what they have been the past few seasons, right around .500, and they’ll likely finish in last place in the toughest division in baseball.
FanGraphs has Boston projected for an 81-81 season, while Baseball Prospectus sees them as a 79-83 club. Both have them finishing last in the division. The good news here could be that FG only has Baltimore projected for 85 wins, so Boston could end up within striking distance of not-last if the projections hold.
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When it comes to the postseason, it looks as though the Red Sox are in a tier below the postseason contenders. BP has the Orioles in fourth place in the division with an 87-win season, eight above Boston. That would also be the number that the Red Sox would need to hit to reach the third wild-card spot. It’s not impossible, but they’d also be fighting with the defending champion Texas Rangers, the super-talented Seattle Mariners, and maybe even a surprise Cleveland Guardians team in order to reach that final playoff berth.
On paper, the teams in the West look to have a better shot at playing in October than the Red Sox, especially with how their luck on the injury front is currently going. Then again, when a film crew was recording at Sox games for the movie “Fever Pitch” they ended up breaking the curse and winning the World Series. We’ll see if Netflix can bring some of that luck with them.
Red Sox player to watch in 2024
In order for the Red Sox to reach the postseason they could definitely use some help on the pitching side of things, but they could also use a step forward from one of their younger guys to provide Rafael Devers with a fellow star on the team.
Triston Casas could be that player for Boston. The 24-year-old lefty first baseman has shown that he can get on base, thanks to one of the highest walk rates in baseball last season at 13.9%, good for a .367 OBP. He also hit 24 home runs and put up a 129 wRC+, which was top-20 in baseball. He’s solid on the offensive end.
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For Casas to take that next step, his defense needs to improve. As good as he is at swinging that bat, that’s how bad he was with the glove last year. Statcast had him with -10 outs above average in 2023, which ranked second-to-last among all first baseman ahead of just Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s -13. Out of 261 qualified defenders at any position, Casas ranked tied for 247.
The Red Sox lineup is decent. The pitching is projected to be roughly league average. Boston will need to improve in some facet of the game in order to finish with a better record than they did a year ago, and the defense seems like a good place to start with the current roster.
