NBA fans will soon consume something that produces both the biggest joy and agony during the postseason.
Game 7.
The winner experiences elation over its heroic play and its triumph over adversity. The loser feels sorrow over its shortcomings and its finality.
When the Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals tonight (8:30 p.m., TNT), which team will feel which emotions?
Will the Celtics feel joy over becoming the first team in NBA history to overcome an 0-3 series deficit? Or will they endure disappointment over their comeback effort still leading to a failed outcome?
Will the Heat feel relief for winning a decisive Game 7 on the road after nearly squandering a 3-0 series lead? Or will they experience agony for being on the wrong side of history?
Whatever happens, just hope that Game 7 becomes as riveting as Game 6. The winner moves on to face the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals. Below are five storylines to watch in what could be a matchup for the ages.
What version of the Boston Celtics will we see?
Conventional wisdom suggests that Boston would treat Game 7 with the urgency of a must-win game because, well, it’s a must-win game. It would also suggest that the home-crowd intensity would boost the Boston Celtics into playing their best game of the season.
For better and for worse, though, the Celtics have stayed wildly unpredictable. They looked dominant against teams above .500 (33-15) and complacent against teams below. 500 (24-10). The trend continued in the postseason. They experienced Game 5 clunkers at home against Atlanta and Philadelphia. They then had dominant close-out wins in Game 6 (vs. Atlanta) and Game 7 (vs. Philadelphia). Heck, the Celtics nearly squandered a nine-point lead in the final three minutes in Game 6 against Miami.
The Boston Celtics will provide immediate clarity on how much urgency they will play with Game 7 after opening tip. That quality, though, might remain fluid throughout the game up until the final buzzer.
What version of the Heat will we see?
Miami may have lost Game 6 in devastating fashion following Derrick White’s putback with 0.2 seconds left. But the Heat are not going to enter Game 7 showing any signs of deflation.
Miami has showcased resiliency all season with overcoming regular-season injuries, leaning on its strong culture and showcasing its competitiveness. Don’t expect that to go away suddenly. If anything, expect the Heat to show further resolve. How will that affect the team’s actual execution, though? Consider how differently the Heat played between their three consecutive wins and losses against the Boston Celtics.
Miami shot lights out from deep in its wins in Game 1 (51.6%), and Game 3 (54.3%) before hitting a drought in its losses in Game 4 (25%) and Game 5 (39.1%). The Heat had statistical outliers with overcoming a poor outside shooting night in a Game 2 win (34.6%) and failing to capitalize on a strong shooting performance in a Game 6 loss (46.7%). Similar trends emerged with the Heat’s low amount in turnovers in their wins in Game 1 (12), Game 2 (10) and Game 3 (nine) before playing more sloppily in their losses in Game 4 (15) and Game 5 (16). Miami only had five turnovers in Game 6, but still lost. Go figure.
Which star player has a break-out performance?
In the first two games, Heat star Jimmy Butler went toe-to-toe with Boston Celtics star Jayson Tatum before taking over in the fourth quarter. Tatum had a clunker in a Game 3 loss (14 points on 6-for-18 shooting) before bouncing back in wins in Game 4 (33 points), Game 5 (21 points) and Game 6 (31 points). Butler still played well in all of the Heat’s losses, but he shot inefficiently in Game 6 (5-for-21).
Celtics star Jaylen Brown had erratic shooting nights during losses in Game 2 (7-for-23 overall, 1-for-7 from deep) and Game 3 (6-for-17 overall, 0-for-7 from 3) before shooting well in wins in Game 5 (9-for-18) and mixed in Game 6 (9-for-16 overall and 8-for-10 from free-throw line; 0-for-4 from 3). A similar dichotomy emerged for Miami forward Bam Adebayo in a Game 1 win (35 points on 12-for-25 shooting) and a Game 6 loss (11 points on 4-for-16 overall).
How Brown and Adebayo score and shoot will not mainly influence the outcome. That falls mostly on Butler and Tatum. Makes sense. They represent their team’s No. 1 offensive option and leader. That means Butler and Tatum have to play with aggressiveness and efficiency, particularly in crunch time. That will likely become the main factor that determines the outcome.
Which role player becomes an X factor?
White forever put himself in Celtics lore with an unexpected putback following Marcus Smart’s missed 3 on the final play of Game 6. Who will join him as a role player that makes a notable play?
Will Smart make a big shot to rectify his missed potential game winner in Game 6? Will Heat guard Max Strus make a key defensive stop after failing to cover White after he focused first on denying Tatum the ball on the inbounds pass? Will Heat guard Gabe Vincent have another stellar shooting performance after missing Game 5 with a sprained left ankle?
Both Miami and Boston have plenty of serviceable role players. It seems inevitable they will all make a handful of critical plays. Though the outcome will likely fall on the stars, the teams’ respective depth could tilt the scale.
Which coach rises to the occasion?
Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra entered the playoffs with plenty of pedigree based off of two NBA championships, five Finals runs and 12 postseason appearances in 15 seasons. That resume only grew with the eighth-seeded Heat advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Boston Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla entered the playoffs with uncertainty on if he could manage a talented team and make adjustments in any competitive playoff series. That scrutiny increased with how he prepared his players, used his timeouts and handled his rotations during the Celtics’ inconsistent postseason performances.
Since then, Mazzulla has received praise for keeping his players engaged and making adjustments in the Celtics’ last three wins. Spoelstra has not received the same criticism with Miami’s struggles partly because of his resume. Regardless, that sets up an interesting subplot. Which coach will become most effective with managing the group, the Xs and Os and any other unexpected turbulence in Game 7?
Mark Medina is an NBA Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter and on Instagram.