Aryna Sabalenka has finally broken through to her first Grand Slam final, and she’s favored to finish the job against Elena Rybakina on Saturday.
It’s a matchup that features two of the biggest hitters on the WTA Tour.
Sabalenka, 24, has not dropped a set and has lost a total of only 34 games through her first six matches at Melbourne Park. The No. 5 seed was pushed to her first tiebreak of the tournament by Magda Linette in the semifinals, but lost only one point in the breaker and then routed her unranked counterpart 6-2 in the second set.
It improved Sabalenka to a perfect 20-0 in sets played in 2023, including her title in Adelaide leading up to the Australian Open.
The No. 22-seeded Rybakina has been nearly as dominant, losing a lone set during her run to the finals — and that came to No. 13 Danielle Collins, who reach the finals in Melbourne last year. Rybakina also took out No. 1 seed Iga Swiatek in the Round of 16 — one of four consecutive seeded players she has defeated, while Sabalenka has only faced two thus far.
Sabalenka won the most recent meeting, a 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 battle at Wimbledon in 2021. She also won in three sets the last time the two met on a hard court in Abu Dhabi earlier that year.
Rybakina, 23, does have something on her resume that Sabalenka lacks — a Grand Slam title. That came at last year’s Wimbledon, where Sabalenka was not allowed to play due to the tournament’s ban on players from Belarus and Russia.
“Everything was new at Wimbledon,” Rybakina said. “Now I more or less understand what to expect. It’s nervous no matter what because it’s a final.”
Sabalenka has been installed as the favorite entering Saturday’s match. That includes being offered at -130 at DraftKings, where the Belarusian star has been backed by 54 percent of the bets and 70 percent of the money to beat Rybakina (+110).
BetMGM has even shorter odds on Sabalenka at -140 compared to Rybakina at +120. Among the potential set outcomes, Rybakina winning in straight sets has the shortest odds at +155.
SET BETTING ODDS
Sabalenka 2-0 (+155)
Rybakina 2-0 (+240)
Sabalenka 2-1 (+310)
Rybakina 2-1 (+375)
–Field Level Media