The Golden State Warriors are a massive, fundamental problem for any team that hopes to beat them in the NBA playoffs. They’re first in the league in defensive efficiency, second in offensive efficiency. And at 62-13, they’re in the process of putting together the most impressive regular season since the 2000 Los Angeles Lakers.
So how do you beat them?
It won’t be easy. This chart describes the circumstances surrounding their 13 losses, and it won’t instill a lot of confidence in teams hoping to beat them four times in seven games. More times than not, factors beyond its control have led to Golden State’s losses. Still, the Warriors are not undefeated.
Here are the five ways the Warriors have lost this season:
1. Injuries/Rest
This is the first of two causes on the list that neither the Warriors nor their opponents have any control over. At full strength, Golden State has been almost unbeatable, losing only five such games this year. If everyone played all 82 games, the Warriors would not only have reached 70 wins, they would’ve had a real shot at topping the ’96 Bulls’ record of 72-10.
While their rotation runs nine deep, the three players the Warriors need most are Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Bogut. Bogut’s been the most injury-prone of the trio, missing 15 games this season (one was for rest). The Warriors have lost six games without their starting center.
2. Fatigue/They Lacked Energy
Every team will have a handful of these games each season. They’re unavoidable over the course of 82 games. Two of the Warriors’ losses this season can be chalked up to a lackluster effort.
The first of these came in the 110-100 loss to the Utah Jazz in January. What’s weird is that the Warriors were well-rested, with two days between games and coming off of a five-game homestand. Golden State missed plenty of open looks on its way to shooting 8-of-27 from three-point range and lost out on every loose ball and 50-50 rebound opportunity. Even with Utah loading Curry’s side of the floor defensively, the other Warriors could not capitalize.
The second such loss came in Brooklyn. Golden State was finishing its six-game road trip and played in Boston the night before. It was a typical “schedule loss.” Thompson looked particularly gassed, managing only seven points on 3-of-17 shooting.
3. They’re Beaten at Their Own Game
Even though they have the league’s most efficient defense, the Warriors are still built around their offensive talent. They like to get up and down the court and score from everywhere. On a handful of occasions, we’ve seen teams return the favor to varying degrees.
The two most notable examples came against Oklahoma City and Atlanta. Lead by Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka, who combined for a staggering 63 points on 36 field goal attempts, the Thunder shot 53 percent from the floor and 46 percent from deep.
Atlanta was even more impressive. It shot 49 percent from the floor, 56 percent (15-of-27) from three-point range, and 89 percent (33-of-37) at the line. Even the Hawks bench crashed the party, with Dennis Schroder, Mike Scott and Kent Bazemore combining to make all seven of their three-point attempts.
Other displays include the Lakers shooting 52 percent from the field and 46 percent from downtown, and the Suns, Bulls and Cavs making free throws at very high rates.
4. Teams Have Exploited Their Defensive Approach
This is a subset of the previous category, and only gets special recognition because it doesn’t fully explain the performances of Oklahoma City and Atlanta.
Golden State’s defensive success has more to do with personnel than scheme. It boasts five players between 6’7″ and 6’8″ who range from above-average to very good wing defenders, a solid rim protector in Bogut, and much more willingness from Curry to pressure point guards. The interchangeability of much of the roster allows the team to switch every screen, which it does.
Against the Thunder, switching on defense didn’t hurt them as much as their desire to play straight up. Harrison Barnes didn’t have his greatest game, and Durant took it to him all night. There was some reluctance from the Warriors to send double teams, although part of this had to do with Durant catching the ball in the middle of the court, meaning Golden State couldn’t flood one side. Still, without Bogut to patrol the paint, the Warriors had no solution for the reigning MVP.
Whereas Oklahoma City rode its best player, Atlanta took advantage of any weakness it could find. While these teams’ success had more to do with an almost impossible-to-repeat shooting performance, exploiting the soft spots in Golden State’s defense tipped the game in their favor.
The most glaring example of this was the Mike Scott-David Lee matchup. Lee is the Warriors’ worst defensive player, Scott is not the Hawks best offensive player. Still, the Hawks went after Lee, and Scott delivered, torching Lee for eight points in one two-minute stretch.
The second example came when the Hawks attacked the paint. After an initial screen and switch, Jeff Teague would blow by his new defender to challenge Bogut in the paint. Instead of trying to score over Bogut, Teague kept his dribble and glided past the less-than-nimble center, forcing the weak side of the Warriors defense to collapse. From there, Teague was able to hit an open shooter. Not many guards are quick enough to pull this off, but it bears watching in the playoffs.
5. They Don’t Give Themselves Enough Possessions on Offense
The Warriors aren’t good at everything, they just seem that way. In fact, they’re league average—Gasp!—in turnovers and offensive rebounding. The cause and effect of struggling in both of those areas on a given night is a shortage of opportunities to score.
This was more of a problem early in the season when the Warriors were carving out their identity. In its loss to Phoenix, Golden State turned the ball over 26 times and managed only three offensive rebounds. All told, the team managed only 69 field goal attempts, 18 fewer than their season average of 87.
In their next game, a loss to San Antonio, the Warriors had the same problem: 19 turnovers, one offensive rebound and 70 field goal attempts. It didn’t even matter that they shot 54 percent on the night. They also had 19 turnovers against the Lakers.
As much as they corrected the issue, Golden State will have to put extra emphasis on valuing each possession when teams turn up the intensity during the playoffs.
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So that’s how the Warriors have lost. It may not look pretty for the rest of the league now, the crucible of the playoffs introduces new variables. Golden State won’t be able to waltz its way to the Larry O’Brien trophy, it will have to tighten up the team’s weaknesses and make adjustments, just like the other 15 teams.
The blueprint does exist. We just have to wait and see how teams build from there.
Photo: USA Today Sports