Some look at the San Francisco 49ers fall from grace this past season and ensuing Jim Harbaugh drama and take it as an indication that the team will not be contending for a playoff spot or a Super Bowl title in the foreseeable future.
While somewhat well reasoned, those points only begin to scratch the surface. We have absolutely no idea how the new coaching staff is going to turn out. San Francisco also dealt with more injuries last season than at any time in the history of the franchise. This is still an immensely talented team with Super Bowl aspirations.
What general manager Trent Baalke does in the offseason will go a long way in determining the future success of the franchise. It’s also important to note that San Francisco’s current cap situation—reportedly over the threshold—isn’t as nightmarish as many would like to believe. Let’s get started with that aspect of the team’s offseason as well as four other things San Francisco must address between now and August.
1. Tend to the Salary Cap
Looking at Spotrac.com’s numbers, San Francisco is currently about $3 million over the cap. That number has been cause for alarm around Northern California in recent weeks, but the 49ers cap situation is nowhere near as bad as some might want to point out. There are a ton of inflated veteran contracts that will not be on the books at their current value when the 2015 season comes calling.
Patrick Willis ($8.2 million), NaVorro Bowman ($8.4 million), Ahmad Brooks ($9.7 million), Vernon Davis ($7 million) and Stevie Johnson ($6 million) will not be back at those cap figures next season. Most of them will likely agree to restructures, while others will be released outright. In fact, releasing Brooks, Davis and Johnson would save San Francisco about $16 million in cap room. This doesn’t even take into account the potential that Colin Kaepernick could/will backload some of his $15.3 million cap hit, enabling him to receive a bit more in guaranteed money.
By no means is this an indication that Baalke doesn’t have his work cut out for him. Even if San Francisco were to shed $25-$30 million of its cap number for 2015, the team needs to be smart with the way it restructures some contracts in order to create the same type of cap flexibility moving forward. It also needs to find a happy medium, because unlike other years, the 49ers will have to dip into free agency this March. That brings us to our next point.
2. Sign a Top-Tier Wide Receiver
From Randy Moss and Braylon Edwards to Brandon Lloyd, San Francisco has made the habit of dipping into the watered-down free-agent market for veteran receivers that provided very little on-field impact. Outside of trading a sixth-round pick for Anquan Boldin, this is a position the current front office has struggled with for some time now. It’s now time San Francisco bites the proverbial bullet and spends money on a young free-agent option.
The likes of Randall Cobb and Torrey Smith—two young receivers with great down-field capabilities—seem to be the best fits here. One of the major things that Kaepernick has been missing since taking over the 49ers starting quarterback job from Alex Smith back in 2012 is a down-field threat. The team tried with the selection of A.J. Jenkins, but that was an utter failure. And while youngster Bruce Ellington has shown some flashes, the 49ers need to get themselves a proven commodity here. It’s not outlandish to believe Baalke and company could make a strong play for Cobb or Smith when March comes calling. By potentially releasing Stevie Johnson, the cash would be there under the cap to get something done with one of these young talents. In short, San Francisco can’t afford to hold its cards close to the vest here. It needs to hit the market strong early.
3. Address the Cornerback Concerns
Surprisingly, San Francisco’s pass defense was one of the best in the NFL last season. After losing the likes of Carlos Rogers, Tarell Brown and Donte Whitner in free agency, the 49ers still ranked fifth in the NFL in that category. Unfortunately, both Perrish Cox and Chris Culliver are slated to become free agents this offseason. San Francisco needs to retain at least one of them in order to maintain this high level of play.
With 2014 first-round pick Jimmie Ward sized up to play a nickel role, San Francisco also needs to think long and hard about drafting another outside cornerback in April. This is only magnified by the fact that the 49ers must pick their battles in free agency, and wide receiver has to be the top priority there.
4. Acquire a Reliable Backup Quarterback
In watching tape of Colin Kaepernick from this past season, one thing stood out more than anything else. Kaepernick’s tape was nowhere near as bad as it looked live. While he failed to progess in certain areas, the talent is there if San Francisco is willing to let the quarterback play his game. And that’s where our next point comes in.
Did you ever wonder why Kaepernick had so much success in leading San Francisco to the Super Bowl in 2012? Some of that clearly had to do with defenses not fully understanding what he brought to the table. However, the primary reason for Kaepernick’s success was that San Francisco had a backup quarterback in Alex Smith it could trust should Kaepernick go down with injury. That simply hasn’t been the case the last two seasons with Colt McCoy and Blaine Gabbert acting as his primary backups. If you don’t think this played a role in Kaepernick’s lack of success, I am not sure what to tell you.
The reality of the situation is that San Francisco didn’t allow Kaepernick to utilize his talents to the best of his ability due to the fear of having to throw McCoy or Gabbert out there the past two seasons. Think about it this way. Would DeMarco Murray have been successful in Dallas if the Cowboys told him not to run betweem the tackles because they didn’t want Joseph Randle touching the football?
The best-case scenario for Kaepernick and the 49ers is for the team to go out there and sign a veteran backup it can trust to take over should the embattled starter go down. The likes of Josh McCown, Michael Vick, Jake Locker and even former 49er signal caller Shaun Hill could make sense here.
5. Find Replacements for Aging Veterans
San Francisco has done a tremendous job finding young talent in the draft to replace aging veterans. While not up to the level of a team like the Seattle Seahawks in that category, this will enable the team to remain competitive for some time. At some point soon the likes of Carlos Hyde, Tank Carradine, Chris Borland, Brandon Thomas, Marcus Martin, Jimmie Ward and Quinton Dial will take on larger roles. This doesn’t mean the job is anywhere near done.
We mentioned the wide receiver position earlier, but that has to be the team’s central focus. Anquan Boldin may be a borderline No. 1 receiver, but he’s unlikely to play beyond next season. Michael Crabtree is also as good as gone. That leaves San Francisco’s long-term future at wide receiver pretty dim. In addition to signing a young veteran, the 49ers will have to dip into the early rounds of the draft once again. That’s definitely a necessity.
Outside of wide receiver, there are a couple other question marks down the road. San Francisco selected Vance McDonald in the second round of the 2013 draft, but he’s been an absolute bust. With Vernon Davis potentially on his way out—either this year or next—tight end becomes a need position. Much like Crabtree, former first-round pick Mike Iupati is likely as good as gone. In addition to this, Alex Boone has just one year remaining on his deal and held out throughout the preseason last year. Brandon Thomas might be one option down the road, but he’s coming off a red-shirt rookie season. Obviously, guard is going to be a position of need.
Photo: USA Today