History doesn’t look kindly upon third-string rookie quarterbacks making strong Super Bowl runs.
Neither do sportsbooks.
The San Francisco 49ers’ odds of winning the Super Bowl skyrocketed after quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s season-ending foot injury on Sunday. With rookie seventh-rounder Brock Purdy now at the helm of the offense, the 49ers saw their odds of winning the title nearly double at most major sportsbooks.
San Francisco went from +750 at BetRivers to +1200, a distant fifth behind Buffalo (+375), Kansas City (+460), Philadelphia (+500) and Dallas (+700). The 49ers shifted from +600 to +1100 at BetMGM, where they are tied for the fifth-shortest odds with Cincinnati.
Interestingly, they are still ahead of the 9-2 Minnesota Vikings, who are +1400 at BetRivers and +1600 at BetMGM despite having a firm grip on the NFC North title and still being in the hunt for a first-round bye.
The 49ers are now the third favorites to win the NFC title at both sportsbooks. Their conference championship odds lengthened from +300 to +500 at BetRivers and from +230 to +450 at BetMGM. That puts them behind Philadelphia (+200, +185) and Dallas (+300 at both).
Purdy helped San Francisco (8-4) maintain a one-game lead in the NFC West with Sunday’s victory over Miami. The 49ers are still -375 to claim the division title at BetRivers, although they entered Sunday at -715.
Purdy steps into a critical three-game stretch for the 49ers, who will host Tampa Bay (5-6) on Sunday before a Week 15 Thursday night game at division rival Seattle (7-5) and a Christmas Eve visit from Washington (7-5-1).
The Buccaneers are atop the woeful NFC South while the Seahawks no doubt see the door cracked to stay in the NFC West race while also competing with the Commanders, among others, in the wild card picture.
Purdy, dubbed “Mr. Irrelevant” as the final pick in the NFL draft, stepped in for the injured Garoppolo to throw for 210 yards and a pair of touchdowns against an interception in the 33-17 victory over Miami.
He’ll be extremely relevant moving forward for the 49ers, who will support the rookie with the league’s top-ranked defense.
After intercepting Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa twice and holding former 49ers running back Raheem Mostert to 30 yards on the ground, San Francisco is allowing a league-low 283.9 yards per game.
Miami’s fourth-quarter touchdown on Sunday represents the only second-half points the 49ers have allowed in their past five games.
“We’re going to be ready to do our best to overcome this,” Shanahan said about Garoppolo’s injury after the game. “We had a strong team, guys who love football. We’ve got to make sure to really ride that high the rest of the year and hope it can keep making us better.”
Purdy’s first NFL start will come against future Hall of Famer Tom Brady, who was drafted in the sixth round by New England in 2000.
Purdy was four months old at the time. He turned two years old shortly before Brady led the Patriots to their first title in Super Bowl XXXVI.
“I’ve always had confidence and belief in myself that I could play at this level,” Purdy said. “To get in, play and start next week, it’s something I’ve always looked forward to. I’ve honestly told myself that it’s going to happen, so, here we are.”
–Field Level Media