The Bay Hill & Lodge has long been one of the favorites stops on the PGA Tour, in part due to the legacy of Arnold Palmer.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational received elevated status this year, as it’s the fourth of eight signature events and features a $20 million purse with $4 million to the winner. That has drawn an elite field to Orlando this week, and our golf experts preview the tournament while providing their favorite prop picks and best bets to win.
ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL
Location: Orlando, Fla., March 7-10
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge (Par 72, 7,466 yards)
Purse: $20M (Winner: $4M)
Defending Champion: Kurt Kitayama
FedEx Cup Leader: Matthieu Pavon
HOW TO FOLLOW
TV: Thursday-Friday, 2-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel); Saturday-Sunday, 12:30-2:30 p.m. (GC), 2:30-6 p.m. (NBC)
Streaming (ESPN+): Thursday-Friday, 7:30 a.m.-6 p.m. ET; Saturday-Sunday, 8 a.m.-6 p.m.
X: @APInv
PROP PICKS
–Rory McIlroy to Beat Scottie Scheffler (+105 at DraftKings): Scheffler is Mr. Consistency, but Bay Hill has been one of McIlroy’s favorite tracks throughout his career. His six top-10s since 2015 lead the field and include a win in 2018 and a runner-up last year. McIlroy is coming off a T21 at PGA National.
–Emiliano Grillo Top 30 (-120 at BetMGM): The Argentinian has made seven consecutive cuts, including four finishes of T22 or better. Grillo finished top-30 in two of the first three signature events of the year, and only needs to be 39 players in the 69-player field for this prop to pay out.
–Min Woo Lee Top Australian (+225 at DraftKings): Lee has far less experience at Bay Hill than countrymen Jason Day (+190) and Adam Scott (+250), who are both in solid form. Lee also has to beat Cam Davis (+500) for this prop to pay. We’re banking on Lee gaining valuable knowledge from his missed cut last year. The young Australian plays with no fear and closed with a 66-67 over the weekend to claim a T2 at the Cognizant Classic.
2024 Prop Picks Record: 12-14-1
BEST BETS
–Scottie Scheffler (+650 at BetMGM) has gone T4-1-T15 in his past three starts at Bay Hill. He hasn’t finished worse than T17 in his past five starts on tour, but Scheffler is seeking his first official tour win since The Players last March. Since opening at +700, Scheffler is second in the field with 8.9 percent of the bets and 10.8 percent of the money backing him to snap that winless streak.
–Rory McIlroy (+900) won the API in 2018 and was the runner-up last year. He is the BetMGM’s biggest liability this week, drawing 14.6 percent of the money since opening at +1000.
–Viktor Hovland (+1400) makes his first start since a T19 at the Genesis. Hovland is third in the field with 6.0 percent of the total bets backing him since opening at +1200.
–Ludvig Aberg (+2000) has shot up to 11th in the world rankings with a pair of top-10s ahead of a T19 at the Genesis in his most recent start. He’s the book’s third biggest liability with 6.0 percent of the money backing the young Swede.
–Min Woo Lee’s (+4500) late charge for a T2 at PGA National helped earn a spot in the field. He enters the week a career-best 31st in the world rankings.
NOTES
–This is the second of three player-hosted invitationals along with Tiger Woods’ at the Genesis and Jack Nicklaus’ at the Memorial. It’s also the fourth of eight signature events, featuring a $20 million purse and 700 FedEx Cup points. Player-hosted signature events are the only ones to feature a 36-hole cut, with the low 50 and ties advancing to the weekend.
–Tony Finau is the only eligible player among 70 who is not competing this week.
–Kitayama seeks to become the first player to successfully defend at Bay Hill since Matt Every in 2015.
–The API has three qualifying spots available for The Open Championship to those not already qualified.
–European Ryder Cup players Nicolai Hojgaard and Shane Lowry are in the field on sponsors exemptions, and will be joined by 2018 Players champion Webb Simpson.
–North Carolina junior David Ford will make his first start on tour after winning a vote of his peers at the 2023 Palmer Cup.
–Payne Stewart holds the tournament scoring record of 264 set in 1987.
–Field Level Media