Some people look at regular season records and have predetermined that this World Series between the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks will be a dud. While that could end up being true in the ratings, with the lack of a noted villain for the public to hate-watch, this Series has the makings of a true Fall Classic.
When the postseason began, I set out with the intent of determining which team had the easiest route to a World Series berth. I quickly found that there was just no way to tell how this postseason would shake out.
Sure, the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Baltimore Orioles won at least 100 games so they should be the presumed favorites. But each team in the field had flaws. Even the ones that are still standing. The three 100-win teams won a combined one game in October, and all three were bounced in their respective Division Series.
That hasn’t sat well with some fans on social media, who want the teams that won their divisions to get more of a reward. Currently, the two best teams in each league get to skip an entire round of the postseason which seems like a pretty good treat for winning a few extra games.
One less round of randomness, and a three-game series at that. But on the other side of the coin, fans of those teams decided that the layoff was too long and that’s why their teams came out flat. There’s not fix-all solution here. If you want the championship to be played between the two teams that you’re expecting, watch basketball.
The MLB Playoffs are filled with randomness. You’ll hear people say the words “small sample size” throughout the course of the regular season, and the games in October are just that. There’s a lot of luck that goes into getting to the World Series, but there is also a ton of talent on any team that makes it this far. You can’t luck your way all the way to a World Series win. Those are still earned with hits in key moments and performing when the lights are brightest.
World Series: Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers records
A lot has been made about the records of the Texas Rangers (90-72) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78) and how they “shouldn’t” be in the Series. First off, the Rangers had the same exact record as the Houston Astros at the end of the regular season and lost the division because of their head-to-head record.
The Astros got to skip the Wild Card round, and the Rangers swept the 99-win Tampa Bay Rays. In the following round, Texas had to take on the 101-win Orioles, and swept them, too. They weren’t given any handouts to make it to the World Series. They took the path of most resistance and still made it, and that should be celebrated.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are a relatively unknown team on the national scale, which is another reason why people are so grumpy about this matchup. They swept the Milwaukee Brewers, who won their division, and swept the Los Angeles Dodgers, who won the division Arizona plays in.
The D-Backs played one home game total in those two series and dominated both of them. They then took their show on the road to Philadelphia, where not even the Atlanta Braves have won a postseason game the past two years, going 0-4, and took games six and seven. Nobody saw that coming. That is literally David beating Goliath, and people are mad because the big market team didn’t win at home.
Part of the reason people seem frustrated by the matchup is because they likely forget these teams exist during the regular season, but that’s not the fault of the clubs. It’s the networks that choose to put the same matchups on year after year that has forced people to tune out because Red Sox and Yankees just isn’t as compelling as it was 20 years ago. If you want to grow the game, you have to show people a variety of teams because there are good baseball players on every team. Even bad teams have compelling storylines.
The Rangers and Diamondbacks have done nothing wrong. But enough about that. Let’s talk matchup.
Texas Rangers weakness
The Rangers weakness has been well documented, and it’s their bullpen. During the regular season, Texas’ bullpen ranked 24th in ERA with a 4.77 and they ranked 27th in saves with 30. During this run, their bullpen still hasn’t been great compared to other teams in the postseason, but it has improved to post a 3.72 ERA.
Josh Sborz holds a 1.04 ERA across 8 2/3 postseason innings after posting a 5.50 ERA during the regular season. His walks are up and his strikeout rate is down, but he’s getting the job done. Aroldis Chapman holds a 1.42 ERA, but he has as many walks (4) as strikeouts and his FIP sits at 6.41. He could piece together a few more effective innings and be leaned on, or he could implode. These two players could be the linchpin guys for Texas.
José Leclerc has become the closer, closing out three games this postseason, and he has been effective for the most part. His biggest blow-up was against Houston in the ALCS when he had a long layoff in between innings while the benches cleared and order was restored after Bryan Abreu hit Adolís Garcia. He allowed three runs on a home run to José Altuve, but can hardly be deemed at fault for that one. Still, manager Bruce Bochy has been leaning on Leclerc heavily this postseason, using him in all but two of Texas’ games. How much will he have left in the tank?
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Arizona Diamondbacks weakness
The D-Backs always find a way, or at least they have so far. The Rangers could be their biggest test, because the two offenses aren’t exactly comparable. The Rangers have the best offense this postseason with a 124 wRC+ (100 is league average), while Arizona is right below league average with a 99.
The two pitching staffs as a whole are similar, with Arizona holding a 3.31 ERA and Texas at 3.67, so runs may be hard to come by for both teams, but if you were going to bet on one team being able to put up some big innings, it would be the Texas bats.
That said, Ketel Marte has recorded a hit in each game this postseason, giving him a streak of 16 games to start a postseason career. That’s the most in MLB history. After collecting three hits in the first six games of the NLCS, NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll went 3-for-4 with two RBI and two stolen bases in Game 7. This team gets hits when it matters, but whether or not they can keep up with Texas is the question.
Arizona Diamondbacks x-factor
Both teams have two to three strong starting pitchers with Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Brandon Pfaadt for Arizona, and Jordan Montgomery, Nathan Eovaldi, and Max Scherzer for Texas. Whichever starter falters first could have a big influence on which team is left standing at the end of the series.
The Diamondbacks have one matchup that could tip the scales in their favor here, and have the Rangers relying more on their bullpen than they’re hoping to, and that is the running game. Arizona had the second-most swipes in baseball with 166 and leads the field with 16 steals in the postseason. Carroll stole 54 bases during the regular season and ranks in the 99th percentile in sprint speed.
Jonah Heim was solid behind the plate during the year, throwing out 29% of potential base stealers. The league average in 2023 was 21%, so he was better than most. His pop time to second also ranks in the 45th percentile which leaves a crack for Arizona to exploit.
Rangers’ ace Jordan Montgomery has a 2.16 ERA this postseason in 25 innings, and he also has a 1.28 WHIP, meaning he’s allowing more than a runner per inning on base, on average. Montgomery also struggled to control the running game in 2023, with base thieves being successful 14 times in 15 tries during the regular season. Nine of those steals came when he was still a member of the St. Louis Cardinals, but as a member of the Rangers runners were still successful in five of six tries.
If Arizona can get guys on base against Monty, particularly Carroll, then they may be able to put some pressure on him with the running game.
Related: Texas Rangers take familiar approach to reach the World Series: Bash and bash some more
Texas Rangers x-factor
The Rangers have a talented roster, and if Adolís Garcia is mashing like he did against Houston, then it could be series over. But it’ll be more interesting to see if the Texas bullpen falters how Bruce Bochy reacts. Their x-factor will be bullpen management, especially if one of their starters doesn’t go deep.
Bruce Bochy has won three World Series titles in his career, and is known as a great bullpen tactician in the postseason. The Giants were never considered the best team in 2010, 2012, or 2014, and yet they still have banners for each of those seasons. The determining factor was Bochy, who knew how to use the arms he had available to him. If it means throwing out Madison Bumgarner for five innings to collect a save, then so be it.
He’s typically in tune with what his roster can give him and isn’t afraid to make a switch. In a battle of managers, Bochy has the experience and the hardware.
Buckle in, the World Series is going to be a wild ride
These two teams are fairly well matched even though the Rangers are the heavy favorites. Arizona has been counted out all postseason, and their run to the World Series seemed just as likely as getting bounced in the first round against Milwaukee. That doesn’t mean they don’t deserve this spotlight. They’ve won the games to land them in this spot.
When the Houston Astros won their first title in 2017, they had to go through the old guard of Boston, New York, and ultimately defeated Los Angeles in order to hoist the trophy. They were the new kids on the block at one point too, and now they’re the measuring stick. The Diamondbacks are a young and exciting team, and this could be their welcoming into the national spotlight. The Rangers could be in a similar position for years to come with a nice mix of proven veterans and solid rookies.
If Arizona takes home the trophy, it’ll be their second in franchise history and their first since the memorable 2001 championship when Luis Gonzalez walked it off in Game 7 against Mariano Rivera and the Yankees.
If Texas wins it all, it’ll be their first World Series in franchise history, dating back to 1972 when they relocated from Washington and changed their name from the Senators. The team debuted in 1961 in Washington.
Some fans love the same teams winning over and over and over and over. Not all fans do, and for those this Series will be a breath of fresh air. It should also be quite the matchup.