A dozen interesting stats
Despite what some analysts and a former TV show may suggest, numbers can lie. They also can explain a remarkably positive result in college football.
Context, as always, is what tells the story. And as we reflect on the 2018 campaign, a dozen interesting stats caught our eyes — particularly those that point to excellence or are oddly contradictory to what is normal.
Early in the season, everyone could laugh about small sample sizes and “on-pace” stats. But as the year rolled along, impactful trends emerged.
Now that the three-month stretch of the regular season has concluded, full-slate results and home/road splits offer fascinating stories.
Alabama’s smallest margin of victory
Four teams — Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and UCF — ended the regular season undefeated. Clemson clipped Texas A&M by two points and Syracuse by four, while Notre Dame had four victories of seven points or less. UCF edged Memphis 31-30.
For those programs, the most important thing was the victory; Winning is better than losing. But the Crimson Tide hardly broke a sweat. They defeated every opponent by at least 22 points; only Texas A&M and Mississippi State were within 28 points all season. That’s a ridiculous level of dominance.
Darrell Henderson’s first-half effectiveness
Clearing the 1,000-yard barrier in a season is a typical goal for running backs and wide receivers. If Memphis runner Darrell Henderson was limited to playing in the first half, he still would’ve cracked the mark. The dynamic junior amassed 1,013 yards on 124 carries. His 8.2-yard average led all players who averaged at least eight rushing attempts before halftime. For good measure, Henderson notched 67.5 percent of his total pass-catching production in the first half, too. There wasn’t a more explosive playmaker in the country.
Kansas shows takeaways don’t mean everything
The 2018 campaign ended with Kansas firing David Beaty and hiring Les Miles. Naturally, the Jayhawks wrapped up their frustrating year holding the second-best turnover margin of the regular season. Kansas snatched 27 takeaways and ceded possession just 11 times for a plus-16 rate. Over the last 10 years, the previous high for a program with a losing record was plus-12. Unfortunately for the Jayhawks, that tremendous ratio didn’t provide many positive results in a 3-9 season. Turns out they needed to actually play some defense on the other drives, too.
Five-loss Miami led nation in key categories
Two pillars of success are tackles for loss and third-down success. Havoc creates favorable situations for the defense, and those long-yardage snaps typically lead to a punt. Well, Miami excelled in both categories. The Hurricanes paced the FBS with 126 takedowns in the backfield and allowed a mere 23.7 percent conversion rate.
Miami gave up the second fewest yards per play. However, the ‘Canes slumped to a 7-5 record because they averaged 15.4 points in those losses. Defense can win championships, but the offense still needs to score once in a while.
Mississippi State’s absurd run defense at home
No matter the location, Mississippi State showcased a tremendous defense. That’s a necessary fact to mention right away. However, the Bulldogs surrendered seven rushing touchdowns all season — tied for the third-fewest total allowed — and every single one happened on the road. They kept all seven visiting rushing attacks out of the end zone. During the last decade, only 2016 Alabama accomplished the same thing. It’s not a coincidence that Mississippi State topped the country with a defensive red-zone touchdown rate of 25 percent.
Nick Bosa’s team ranking for sacks
Despite appearing in three games this year, Nick Bosa still ended the regular season as one of Ohio State’s most efficient pass-rushers. The junior defensive end collected four sacks, ranking third on the Buckeyes. Only Dre’Mont Jones and Chase Young tallied more, and they both played 12 games. Bosa underwent a major surgery and withdrew from Ohio State to focus on NFL draft preparations. The defense still would’ve been flawed with him available, but Bosa’s absence contributed to a subpar year for the unit. The Buckeyes won the Big Ten East anyway.
Northwestern was perfect on the road
Every year, the common theme of the biggest upsets is a home underdog knocking off the visiting favorite. Northwestern flipped that general rule on its head, proving to be the outlier of 2018. The Wildcats finished a perfect 5-0 on the road but a meager 3-4 in Evanston.
That ugly home record included a loss to Akron, while Northwestern defeated a pair of then-ranked teams in Michigan State and Iowa at their buildings. After seeing the ‘Cats limp to a 1-3 start, nobody predicted eight straight Big Ten wins would follow. But the road warriors made it happen.
Oklahoma’s abysmal red-zone defense
Kyler Murray has put together a Heisman Trophy-caliber year, guiding Oklahoma to the brink of a fourth straight Big 12 crown. The ugly truth, though, is the Sooners would’ve dropped multiple games without Murray because of a historically bad defense. That’s not hyperbole. Opponents found the end zone on 37 of their 43 red-zone trips, and that 86.1 percent touchdown rate is tied for the lowest clip of the last decade. Murray atoned for the struggles, but that ineffectiveness is a major concern if OU ultimately heads to the College Football Playoff.
Only player to average 40-plus passes had 50
Prior to 2018, nine straight seasons included five quarterbacks who attempted at least 40 passes per game. That’s no surprise, given the dramatic rise in popularity of spread-based systems.
Oddly, the recent campaign ended with Washington State’s Gardner Minshew as the only player to crack an average 40 attempts. Oh, and he soared past that mark. One of 2018’s breakout stars, Minshew racked up 51.1 throws per contest and paced the country in both completions and yards. Did anyone see actually this coming before the season?
Two outscored teams won a division title
According to Sports-Reference, 58 teams hold a negative point differential entering championship week. Of that group, only nine achieved bowl eligibility (with Virginia Tech a possible 10th). Most interestingly, though, both Louisiana and Northern Illinois managed to win their respective division in the Sun Belt and MAC anyway. Louisiana turned in a 6-3 conference record, while NIU posted a 6-2 league mark. The bizarre accomplishment is another reminder that style points are less important than winning games when they matter most.
Tua Tagovailoa’s three-quarter dominance
“Hey, grab a headset.” For a quarterback, that means one of two things: You’re having a dreadful day, or you’ve embarrassed the defense enough. The latter applied to Tua Tagovailoa for the entire 2018 campaign.
Again, the Crimson Tide’s smallest margin of victory was 22 points. That was a product of Tagovailoa accounting for 40 touchdowns in the first three quarters of Alabama’s games. By the time the fourth quarter rolled around, the sophomore had a comfortable spot on the sideline to watch his team burn the clock in another blowout win.
UConn’s record-setting horrid defense
This section is not for the squeamish. Connecticut opened the year without huge losses to UCF and Boise State, but that was entirely expected. When the Huskies allowed 550 yards in a 56-49 win against Rhode Island, however, the concern was real. UConn was just horrible on defense. Throw out the weather-affected tilt against UMass, and the Huskies surrendered 500-plus yards in every game. Eight opponents crested the 600-yard mark, too. As the dust settled on the regular season, UConn’s 8.8 yards allowed per snap was the worst in college football history.
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