With Bubba Watson’s win at the Northern Trust Open now in our rear-view mirrors, it’s time to turn our attention to the 2016 Honda Classic, which is generally one of the more dramatic stops on the PGA Tour.
With that in mind, let’s check in on the major storylines we should be following as we gear up for the action at the Jack Nicklaus-designed PGA Resort and Spa’s Champion Course for the Honda Classic.
1. How will results change in Florida?
The Honda Classic is not only a big tournament, but it starts a new chapter of the PGA Tour season. The early season courses in Hawaii, California, and Arizona are dramatically different than the ones upcoming in the Sunshine State.
As a result, the success enjoyed in the early West Coast tournaments doesn’t necessarily translate. Never was that more apparent than last season. Nobody who won in Hawaii, California, or Arizona won at any of the tour’s Florida stops.
The Honda Classic is a definite checkpoint in the race for the FedEx Cup. We’ll get a better sense of what the race might look like in the coming weeks, starting at PGA National.
While we’re on the subject of the FedEx Cup…
2. Can Kevin Kisner take the FedEx Cup lead?
Kisner heads to the Honda Classic only 10 FedEx Cup points behind an idle Brandt Snedeker, who leads the pack early on. Kisner enjoyed most of his 2015-16 season’s success at the end of 2015, but he does have two Top-10 finishes in only three 2016 tournaments.
A run through the Southeast was good to Kisner last season. He didn’t contend in any of the initial Florida Swing events but did make the cut each time he played. He then lost in a playoff at the RBC Heritage in South Carolina and at THE PLAYERS Championship when they went back to Florida in May.
Kisner may not be the biggest name in golf right now, but he’s been playing very well for a while now. If he maintains that this week, he may well be leading the FedEx Cup standings come Monday. If he plays well through Florida, he may be leading for a lot longer than that.
3. Patrick Reed’s continued ascension
Reed has been one of the best players in the world for a few years now. While the 2015-16 season has had a few forgettable results, it’s generally been very successful. Reed has notched four Top-10 finishes in only six official events (recording a second and a tie for 12th in two unofficial events).
One thing he hasn’t done is win, but the Honda Classic is certainly a place where that can happen. Reed has played in the event three times and gotten better each year. His most recent memory at PGA National was a tie for seventh in 2015.
Reed has the polarizing attitude that makes him a perfect player to cheer for or against. If he’s continuing to contend consistently, 2016 can be an entertaining year.
4. Will we see another surprise winner?
The Honda Classic has been played at PGA National since 2007, and it’s been one of the more unpredictable tournaments on tour in that time.
The nine Honda Classics at this location have given us nine different winners. A few of those were not necessarily household names, while others like Padraig Harrington in 2015 were well known but well past their primes.
While it’s always a bit surprising when someone from down in the world rankings wins on tour, the Honda Classic has been an event that draws many of the game’s best players. This year is no exception, but if history has taught us anything it’s that we can’t just assume one of the top-ranked golfers will be the week’s best.
5. Resurgence of Phil Mickelson
This will be the first time we’ll see Phil Mickelson since his near miss at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am two weekends ago.
While he hasn’t won any tournaments yet, Mickelson’s 2016 has been highly successful. He has recorded a tie for third, tie for 11th, and a solo second in three of the four events he’s entered.
Mickelson doesn’t have a vast history at the Honda Classic, finishing a respectable tied for 17th last season after a missed cut in 2014.
It will be very interesting to see if Lefty — who is in his first season with new coach Andrew Getson — will continue to contend and perhaps win tournaments. Florida hasn’t traditionally been Mickelson’s happiest corner of the earth historically. So if he continues to put up good showings in the weeks to come it’s a good sign that he may dwell at or near the top of leaderboards throughout the 2016 season.
6. Will Adam Scott continue to thrive with new putter
The anchored ban that was instituted in on January 1, 2016 was going to impact plenty of golfers, but perhaps were more notable than Adam Scott.
How’s he done so far? Well, pretty good.
Look. Adam Scott made some GREAT putts today. Missed a few sure.. BUT since changing to short putter – 8 events worldwide, 6 top10s, 3 2nds.
— Ben Everill (@BEverillGolfbet) February 22, 2016
Scott’s performance at the Northern Trust Open helped make the event exciting to the very end.
With the recent dominance of Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Jason Day, it’s easy to forget that Scott was the world’s top-ranked golfer as recently as 2014.
His continued play without the anchored putter will not only be one of the top storylines at the Honda Classic but through the PGA Tour season, as well.
7. Redemption for Ian Poulter
On paper, a tie for third in the 2015 Honda Classic would look like a positive for Ian Poulter. But the tie for third should have been a win, and probably a convincing one.
Poulter lost five balls in his final-round debacle, including an ugly shank on Sunday and a triple bogey in the Monday finish. Despite all of that, Poulter missed the playoff by only one shot.
Ouch this is gona hurt for a short while. Really disappointing not to finish this week off. Played some great golf. Back to drawing board.
— Ian Poulter (@IanJamesPoulter) March 2, 2015
This is Poulter’s first return to the scene of the crime. He hasn’t enjoyed a ton of success this season, but this would be a perfect time for him to come full circle and right the ship.
8. Rickie Fowler’s redemption
While Ian Poulter will have the chance to redeem himself from a disappointing 2015 Honda Classic, Rickie Fowler will get his first chance at redemption from an incredibly tough playoff defeat in the Waste Management Open.
Fowler has generally been one of the best players in the world this year, but the inability to close the deal at TPC Scottsdale is definitely a noteworthy blemish on his young season.
The fifth-ranked player in the world and second-ranked player in the field, Fowler enters the week with a perfect chance to get back into the winner’s circle.
9. Which Rory McIlroy will show up?
For the first 55 holes of the Northern Trust Open, it looked like Rory McIlroy was going to be in it until the very end. After his first hole on Sunday, the world’s No. 3-ranked golfer completely imploded in a way that we haven’t really seen since the final round of the 2011 Masters.
From a long term perspective, we shouldn’t expect that to be anything other than one bad round.
As it relates to this weekend, it will be interesting to see how quickly he bounces back. McIlroy has had something of a hit-or-miss history at PGA National, winning in 2012, withdrawing after one round in 2013, losing in a playoff in 2014, and missing the cut in 2015.
If McIlroy is on his game, he has potential to make it a boring weekend, but he also has a history of short stays. This is a good field, but there’s no more interesting golfer to follow at the 2016 Honda Classic than McIlroy.
10. Who will “The Bear Trap” claim?
McIlroy is the most interesting golfer to follow, but the drama that will unfold at holes 15, 16, and 17 — also known as The Bear Trap — is the most compelling storyline.
These three holes have certainly demanded the attention of some of the players who have been forced to play it in years past.
“On Sunday when the pin is in the back right on No. 17, this is the hardest hole we play on TOUR.” — Robert Allenby.
“There’s a pretty good reason they call it the Bear Trap because if it doesn’t get you one way, it’s going to get you another.” — Rory Sabbatini.
“Standing on the 15th tee, even with a six-shot lead, I’m going to be nervous still. You’re got to get good shots coming in.” — Mark Wilson.
Of course, The Bear Trap is most noticeable on Sunday, but it’s dangerous from the beginning of the tournament right through the end.
Since the Honda Classic went to PGA National in 2007, only one winner (Camilo Villegas, 2010) has won by more than two shots. Three of the nine winners have won by a single shot, while each of the last two won champs won in a playoff.
Chances are, things will be close as the leaders come to The Bear Trap, which means a lot of pressure packed shots. For as long as the Honda Classic is played at PGA National, this brutal three-hole stretch will always be at the center of attention.