Unless you’re a fan of the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, or Carolina Panthers, you’ve probably got at least one eye on what your team may look like next season.
Who will be gone? What new faces might come in?
Those are good questions to have, and today we’ll take a shot at answering them. These are 10 guys that could all be looking for new homes next season.
Note: All cap info courtesy of Spotrac.
Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
2016 Cap Hit: $24,008,000 ($12,916,000 dead cap)
There are a couple caveats to this one. One, Calvin Johnson could take the decision out of the Detroit Lions hands and retire. Two, there are no rapid signs of decline. Johnson may not be the receiver he was in his record-setting 2012 season, but he’s still easily one of the best 10 in the game.
The problem is that cap number. Johnson and quarterback Matthew Stafford make up more than 30 percent of Detroit’s projected 2016 cap. That’s not ideal for any team, but it’s disastrous for a team that hasn’t won a playoff game since 1991. The Lions need to reshuffle some of their money to become a more complete roster. Cutting ties with Megatron is one of the best ways to do that.
Because of how much he’d likely make, it’s hard to project a team or list of teams for Johnson. But one that comes to mind is his current NFC North rival, the Green Bay Packers.
Mario Williams, Buffalo Bills
2016 Cap Hit: $19.9 million ($7 million dead cap)
Before the 2015 season ended, news broke that the Buffalo Bills would cut Mario Williams. So, while he’s not a free agent yet, we’re pretty sure that it’s going to happen.
The Washington Redskins, Seattle Seahawks, and Arizona Cardinals were all playoff teams this season that ranked in the middle of the road in team sacks, and those are just the contenders.
Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
2016 Cap Hit: $16,155,000
Given the success of the Washington Redskins and Kirk Cousins in 2015, this is a certainty. In a league with a hard cap, you can’t pay a backup quarterback $16 million.
With the #Redskins season over, they'll release RGIII. Just a matter of timing. Was important to owner Dan Snyder he be on the team all year
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 11, 2016
Here’s the thing with Robert Griffin III, though. We’re not that far removed from a time when he was taking the league by storm. Yes, NFL defenses have seem to have largely caught up with some of what was going on in 2012, but Griffin is clearly talented. Mobile quarterbacks are still an asset, and RG3 is that.
Plenty of teams around the NFL have quarterback needs. The San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, and Philadelphia Eagles all have apparent holes at the quarterback position. The one team that needs to really try to make this happen is the Houston Texans.
Peyton Manning will be 40 in March, while Tom Brady will be 39 in April. Those are the quarterbacks of the two teams in the AFC Championship Game. The AFC is wide open and the Texans can contend, but not with Brian Hoyer. A quarterback with Grffin’s skills can make them a real contender.
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
2016 Cap Hit: $15,890,753 ($7,397,260 dead cap)
Very much like RG3, Colin Kaepernick once looked like an evolutionary quarterback, but not in the last two years. A return to San Francisco makes some sense, but not at that cost. The San Francisco 49ers were no worse with Blaine Gabbert under center in 2015 and while Kaepernick is the more skilled of the two, it makes no sense for them to bring him back at nearly $16 million. They may be able to restructure the deal but if not, Kaepernick will almost certainly be a free agent.
His 2015 was abysmal and 2014 was largely disappointing, but we can’t forget how good he was in 2012 and 2013 for the 49ers. He’s only 28, has a huge arm, and great physical tools that need to be harnessed.
If they can make it work financially, a return to San Francisco does make sense. If Kaepernick wants to start over, all of the teams that made sense for Griffin make sense for Kaepernick.
Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks
2016 Cap Hit: $11.5 million (5 million dead cap)
This is another move that seems a virtual certainty. The Seattle Seahawks are entering a potentially very difficult season in relation to their salary cap.
Marshawn Lynch missed much of the 2015 season, but Seattle still found a way to have the No. 3 rushing attack in the NFL. As much as he’s done for the team in his time in Seattle, Lynch does seem expendable now that he’s approaching 30.
The Oakland Raiders would seem to be the logical fit. Lynch is from Oakland, went to college at nearby Cal, and has the name of the city tattooed across his chest. They are also clearly a rebuilding team, but had one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL in 2015. Lynch and Latavius Murray would make for a good 1-2 punch.
Mike Wallace, Minnesota Vikings
2016 Cap Hit: $11.5 million
In order to join the NFC’s best teams, the Vikings will need to add a few key pieces for offensive depth, and it’s hard to see that happening with Wallace’s cap number on the roster.
Wallace can still be an effective receiver on a contender, but he’s not a No. 1 guy anymore. He would definitely make sense for a team needing a complimentary receiver. The Kansas City Chiefs and Carolina Panthers both make a lot of sense.
Arian Foster, Houston Texans
2016 Cap Hit: $8,925,000 ($2.3 million dead cap)
The writing is on the wall for this move to happen and it makes total sense for the Houston Texans. Arian Foster will be 30 in August, played only four games in 2015 and only played eight in 2013. That’s not exactly what you want to see out of a feature back.
With that said, Foster was just a shade under five yards per carry in 2014 and had eight touchdowns. In only four games in 2015, he caught 22 passes coming out of the backfield for Houston. So, he’s still a potentially valuable back in an offense.
A specific team that would make a lot of sense would be the New England Patriots. They might be a little gun-shy when it comes to injury prone running backs, but Arian Foster has a skill set that would make the New England offense better.
Antonio Cromartie, New York Jets
2016 Cap Hit: $8 million
There are a couple things at play here. One, Cromartie will be 32 in April and is not coming off of a great season, recording no interceptions. Two, the New York Jets have some potentially big financial needs. Keeping Muhammad Wilkerson will not be cheap, and with Ryan Fitzpatrick’s free agency, the quarterback situation is far from settled. So, the $8 million from cutting Cromartie could be huge.
Cromartie would have a limited market, as it’s hard to imagine a true contending team adding him as a starting corner. With that said, he could be a third or fourth corner, just not for $8 million.
In the pass-happy NFL, plenty of teams need secondary help. The Cincinnati Bengals make a lot of sense, as would a reunion with Cromartie’s former coach, Rex Ryan and the Buffalo Bills. The New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, and Oakland Raiders wouldn’t make as much sense on the field, but could also be strong candidates.
Andre Johnson, Indianapolis Colts
2016 Cap Hit: $7,500,000 ($2.5 million dead cap)
The 2015 season was not a good one for Andre Johnson or the Indianapolis Colts. Mike Chappell of CBS 4 Indy labeled Johnson as “probably gone,” which he should be.
Johnson did catch 41 passes in 2015 and in 2014, caught 85 balls for 936 yards. He’ll be 35 in April, but has been good enough recently to deserve at least one more look as a No. 3 receiver.
From and X’s and O’s point of view, the Carolina Panthers make sense. Kelvin Benjamin will return in 2016, and rookie Devin Funchess slides in well as a No. 2 receiver on a run first team. While Tedd Ginn Jr. works well as a downfield option for Cam Newton, Johnson would be the kind of receiver to pick up tough yards on something like a third-and-six, which is just as important.
Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns
2016 Cap Hit: $2,249,617 ($4,624,170 dead cap)
The marriage between Johnny Manziel and the Cleveland Browns has been rocky, to say the least.
It does not seem as though new coach Hue Jackson wants Manziel on the team anymore, and he shouldn’t. The Browns need a quarterback with 100 percent focus. That’s not Manziel.
Conversely, if Manziel has any chance at thriving, he needs to go to a well structured organization. That’s not the Cleveland Browns. Manziel clearly plays hard and has talent. He just makes a lot of mistakes, both on and off of the field.
The Houston Texans make a degree of sense here, but Manziel as a starter would be an even bigger gamble than Kaepernick or RG3, who are both gambles. Some Dallas Cowboys fans seem to want him and while that’s not the worst fit, it’s not the best, either. Nate Burleson of NFL Network suggested the Philadelphia Eagles as a sensible destination.
For my money, the Denver Broncos are the best idea, as Manziel should back up for at least a season. If he’s committed to have a chance to start right away, the best destinations would Eagles or Los Angeles Rams.