Championship dreams can come crashing down in one loss.
Although upsets can happen at any time, the college football world still has particular dates and matchups circled on the season calendar.
It’s simple, really; When the level of competition is highest, there’s more than a victory at stake. Championship dreams can come crashing down in one high-profile loss.
The list is limited to regular-season contests. Conference title games, though undeniably pivotal, are not included because we don’t know the matchups.
Still, nine of the highlighted contests will help determine which programs win their division.
Who will secure a place in that championship round?
Florida vs. Georgia, Oct. 27
Entering Week 9, there’s a three-way tie atop the SEC East. Florida, Georgia and Kentucky are all 4-1 in conference play, and the first two programs are preparing for their annual clash in Jacksonville. Last season, Georgia dominated the Gators with a 42-7 smackdown. Not only should that result be an outlier anyway, Dan Mullen’s return has sparked Florida’s offense. But after losing to Kentucky, the Gators cannot afford to drop the tiebreaker to UGA, too. That would effectively eliminate UF from SEC contention, while the Bulldogs could set up a winner-take-all date with Kentucky.
Iowa at Penn State, Oct. 27
Iowa is 6-1 with a remaining schedule of Penn State, Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois and Nebraska. While no path to December is easy, that’s about as favorable as it can be. Penn State is the most impactful game, though. Because of a loss to Wisconsin earlier this year, the tiebreaker doesn’t favor the Hawkeyes. They’ll need to pick up a game somewhere, and Wisconsin also plays Penn State. If Iowa knocks off the Nittany Lions, suddenly, the Hawkeyes become the team to beat in the Big Ten West Division. Otherwise, they’ll slowly disappear from the conversation.
Alabama at LSU, Nov. 3
Nick Saban’s squad has rolled to 8-0 thanks to a Heisman Trophy-caliber start from Tua Tagovailoa. Alabama’s schedule hasn’t been extremely difficult, yet the offense is flat-out wrecking every defense on a weekly basis. LSU, at its best, has the ability to slow down anyone. Since the 7-1 Tigers fell to Florida, though, they no longer have a margin for error in the SEC West race. If Alabama wins, it would only be one conference victory away from securing the division crown. LSU’s dreams of a national championship hinge entirely on the outcome of this rivalry game.
West Virginia at Texas, Nov. 3
Texas reestablished itself as Big 12 threat when it defeated Oklahoma. But the Longhorns still aren’t a lock for the conference championship game. Beating West Virginia can change that. As long as Texas navigates a trip to Oklahoma State, Tom Herman’s club will be 5-0 in Big 12 action when the Mountaineers head to Austin. And a 6-0 mark with head-to-head tiebreakers over both Oklahoma and WVU would provide a commanding grasp on one spot in the conference title game. Texas isn’t “back,” but a regular-season Big 12 crown would move the Longhorns a little closer.
Stanford at Washington, Nov. 3
The Pac-12 North is destroying itself. Washington lost to Oregon, which lost to Stanford, which lost to Utah, which lost to Washington. Throw in Washington State and its 3-1 Pac 12 record, and it’s a fun mess. Stanford hosts Wazzu in Week 8, and that result will shape the perception of this meeting. If Stanford wins, then downs Washington, the Cardinal would own a 3-0 mark opposite the other division contenders. That would be a huge advantage. But if the Huskies protect home field and dispatch the Cardinal, Washington will hold front-runner status in the Pac-12 down the stretch.
Georgia at Kentucky, Nov. 3
No matter the result of Georgia’s clash with Florida, this contest means a great deal to Kentucky. Should the Bulldogs take down the Gators, though, both programs could enter this showdown at 5-1 in conference play holding victories over UF. Since every other team in the SEC East already has three league losses, the winner in Lexington would also celebrate a division crown. Surviving the rest of the season wouldn’t be a given, but either UGA or UK could hold an 11-1 record heading into the SEC Championship Game. Win there, and the College Football Playoff awaits.
Clemson at Boston College, Nov. 10
Thanks to a dominant triumph over North Carolina State, Clemson is the only unbeaten team remaining in the ACC. Now, the Tigers can basically lock up the Atlantic Division title with victories against Florida State and Boston College. The latter, though, is Clemson’s final road outing of the campaign. Upsets typically happen on the road, and Boston College is currently 4-0 at home. Given the lack of elite teams in the ACC, Clemson losing this late in the season would put a serious dent in its CFP resume. The Tigers look dominant, but only 13-0 can guarantee a playoff bid.
Oklahoma at West Virginia, Nov. 23
Barring some ridiculous string of upsets, a place in the Big 12 Championship Game will be at stake for either or both Oklahoma and West Virginia. And if you love offense, this matchup is perfect. Kyler Murray-led Oklahoma is pacing the nation in yards per play, while the Mountaineers are relatively close behind at 10th. A little bit of defense could go a long way in Morgantown. Since the Sooners and ‘Eers already have one loss apiece, every resume-padding win is critical. In the Big 12, there’s little better than defeating Oklahoma or taking a top-25 game on the road.
Michigan at Ohio State, Nov. 24
Purdue’s upset of Urban Meyer’s squad threw a wrench in the Big Ten East Division race. However, the possibility of a winner-take-all showdown between Michigan and Ohio State in Columbus remains intact. While both programs no longer have a margin for error with 7-1 records, a victory here would offer the ultimate season-ending boost. The Wolverines and Buckeyes must survive Penn State and Michigan State, respectively, to set up the highest stakes possible, but it’s the likely outcome. Besides, college football is better when “The Game” means this much.
Notre Dame at USC, Nov. 24
For the Fighting Irish, the path to the College Football Playoff is simple: 12-0 gets them in. Things get complicated at 11-1, and the later the loss happens, the worse for Notre Dame’s perception. USC is nowhere close to a respected Pac-12 squad in 2018, having already lost three games before the end of October. Falling to USC would be inexcusable for Notre Dame. Unless the CFP committee still deems ND a superior team to a Big Ten or Big 12 champion — and how could it, given a loss to USC — the combination of that upset and no conference title could be the Irish’s undoing.