The end of the year is a time for reflection, and a chance to look ahead at what’s to come. If your baseball team had a lousy season, you’re likely looking forward to a new year. A new chance for your team to compete.
Today, let’s take a look at 10 MLB predictions for the upcoming season. We have records being broken, awards predictions, a powerhouse club missing the postseason for the second consecutive year, and a whole lot more.
Shohei Ohtani breaks the single-season home run record
Ohtani won the AL MVP in 2021 after a tremendous season on both sides of the ball. He finished second in the MVP voting in 2022 because Aaron Judge decided to hit 62 home runs, breaking Roger Maris’ AL record. It seemed like that didn’t sit well with Ohtani, because he came out in 2023 and put up 44 home runs in 135 games before missing the final weeks of the season because of injury. There were points in the campaign when it really looked like he had a shot to re-write history.
With Ohtani focused solely on hitting in 2024 and having questions around baseball about whether he’s “worth” the $700 million contract he signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers this offseason, if he wants to make a statement, he could go all-in on breaking Barry Bonds’ home run record of 73. That’s the same mentality that got Bonds to break Mark McGwire’s record in the first place. Bonds hadn’t topped 49 homers before he went completely berserk in 2001, so it’s all about mentality and conditioning for Ohtani, who was already the best hitter in baseball last season.
Los Angeles Angels finish with a better record in 2024 without Ohtani
Ohtani is great. Mike Trout is great. The problem for the Angels has seemed to be their reliance on both of those players to be great in order for them to potentially compete. Now, with Ohtani playing elsewhere and Trout’s health over a full season a relatively big question mark, the Angels will finally need to build up their depth around the diamond.
This prediction is banking on the Angels making some moves and signing at least one big-name free agent, but it stands to reason that Arte Moreno won’t just go quietly into the night and allow the Dodgers to lord over Southern California. The Angels are going to have to make moves to even stay relevant in their home market, and Perry Minasian seems to be the right guy in charge to build up that roster.
It doesn’t hurt that the Angels record in 2023 was just 73-89 with both Trout and Ohtani. If they can get Anthony Rendon and Trout into more games next season, then that would be a big boon for the franchise’s fortunes.
New York Yankees, Houston Astros both miss the postseason
Here is the reasoning: As of right now, the Yankees have added Juan Soto, but that may not be enough to get them into the postseason alone. They still need to make other moves to improve their pitching staff. Healthy seasons from Carlos Rondón and Nestor Cortes would go a long way to improving their outlook, but they’re not locks, either.
The Houston Astros will be without Martín Maldonado who recently signed with the Chicago White Sox, and he has been a huge help to their pitching staff. Houston also hasn’t made many moves at all, with their signing of catcher Victor Caratini being the lone exception. If it wasn’t for Seattle crumbling down the stretch, the Astros would have missed the postseason in 2023. As things stood at the end of last year, Houston made it in by two games and New York missed out by seven.
Baltimore is on the rise, and they are coming off of a 101-win season. Tampa Bay traded Tyler Glasnow, but they don’t just give players away. Expect the pitchers they got back to be major contributors in 2024. This prediction basically comes down to whether Toronto can keep collecting wins to keep New York on the outside, and whether or not Seattle does enough to take a small leap to catch Houston.
Philadelphia Phillies miss the postseason, Atlanta Braves still fall in NLDS
The past two postseasons the Atlanta Braves have been knocked out by the Philadelphia Phillies despite finishing 14 games ahead in each season. The Phillies are a good team, and could very well make the postseason. That’s actually the part of the prediction that seems harder to make come true. But a big injury to a key player could be enough to sink their postseason chances, too.
As for the Atlanta portion of this prediction, it’s pretty simple. The Dodgers will be the top seed in the National League, which leaves Atlanta, presumably the No. 2 seed, to face off against the winner of the six/three matchup. That would be whichever team finishes atop the NL Central versus arguably the hottest team in the National League, since they had to play their way into the final Wild Card spot.
This past season that sixth seed was the Arizona Diamondbacks. In 2022 it was the Phillies. Both teams ran the table against the National League and made it to the World Series. Atlanta was able to coast down the stretch last season and was unable to turn it on when the postseason began. It’s a bad mixture, and they will get bounced in the NLDS for a third straight season.
Related: Ten bold predictions for the NBA in 2024
Los Angeles Dodgers don’t win the World Series
Since Ohtani signed his massive contract, people have been saying that what the Dodgers are doing isn’t fair. Here’s the thing with baseball: You still have to win when it counts. The San Francisco Giants were arguably never the best team in baseball in 2010, 2012, or 2014, and yet they rattled off three World Series titles. Sometimes being the best just isn’t enough.
Plus, you factor in that Ohtani is likely to be gassed after setting the home run record, and he might not have enough unicorn magic left for October baseball.
The pitching staff will be improved and the Dodgers are going to roll through the regular season, but there is more of a chance that they don’t win the title at the end of the year.
Oakland A’s stay at Coliseum for 2025-27 seasons
The Oakland A’s have announced their intention to leave town for Las Vegas. There are still a lot of questions that need to be answered, like how owner John Fisher will be paying for the ballpark and where the team plans to play once their lease at the Coliseum site in Oakland ends after the 2024 season.
The short version for this prediction is this: By May, the team will own half of the Coliseum site, with the city of Oakland owning the other half. In order for John Fisher to continue to receive his $65-70 million annual check for the RSN deal, the team needs to play at least half of their games in Northern California, but not as far north as Sacramento. That leaves either Oakland full-time, or San Francisco for half of the season with a second (probably minor league) venue for the other half.
It would make sense for Fisher to offer his half of the Coliseum site as part of the negotiation to get a lease extension at the Coliseum and just keep the team there until the ballpark in Las Vegas is ready. Nowhere he goes is going to be great for him financially with fans unwilling to attend games since that means money in his pocket, but at least staying in Oakland would net Fisher the RSN money and need the least amount of work to figure out until he officially leaves.
Fisher could even offer up the A’s name to the city as a sweetener in the deal, allowing him to rebrand the team for their Vegas arrival. Oakland fans would still prefer to have the team, but they’d at least get the name. Vegas residents also don’t seem to want the A’s name, so it’s a win-win for both cities.
San Diego finishes with same record
This one feels bold. The Padres will be without Juan Soto after trading him to the Yankees. Their closer Josh Hader and the reining NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell are still on the free agent market. Their manager Bob Melvin is now in San Francisco. That’s a lot of key departures.
Yet, the team went just 82-80 last season, 10 games below their Pythagorean record. A large part of the reason for this was their 10-28 record in one-run games.
San Diego added some pitching depth in Michael King, Randy Vásquez, and Jhonny Brito in the Soto deal, plus they signed Yuki Matsui to pitch out of the bullpen. If Fernando Tatís Jr. and Manny Machado perform closer to their career norms in 2024, this team shouldn’t take a step back at all. They could even finish with a better record in 2024, but let’s peg them for another 82-win season.
Related: What’s the worst MLB free agent contract of the past 10 years?
Detroit Tigers’ Tarik Skubal wins AL Cy Young
In his age 26 season, Tigers’ starter Tarik Skubal had quite an impressive year, albeit in just 80 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.80 ERA (2.00 FIP) while striking out 32.9% of the hitters he faced and walking just 4.5%. That is a Cy Young caliber stat line, if he can hold it across a full season.
Yankees starter Gerrit Cole won the award in 2023, posting a 2.63 ERA (3.16 FIP), striking out 27% of hitters and walking 5.8%.
One thing that Skubal has going for him is that he plays in the AL Central, and he may be on the best team in that division with Detroit on the rise. If the Tigers are going to continue their ascent, Skubal will likely play a large role. He currently has the seventh-best odds to take home the hardware at +1400 over at BetOnline, slightly worse than George Kirby’s +1200, while basically being a long shot compared to Cole who is at +500.
Cards on the table, this prediction was going to be either Skubal or Cole Ragans of the Kansas City Royals, but the Tigers are a better bet to be a good team in 2024, so Skubal got the nod.
Detroit Tigers win the AL Central
The Kansas City Royals have made some win-now additions to their roster this offseason, which is for one of two reasons (or perhaps both). The first reason is that they are trying to secure public funding for a new ballpark and pumping short-term money into the team may allow for a bigger payout. The second reason is that they see the AL Central as a winnable division.
The Central does appear to be winnable for any team that will spend a little and take it. For Kansas City to win the Central, they’d have to undergo a massive improvement from the second-worst record in baseball at 56-106 and finish roughly 30 games better than they did in 2023. For the TIgers to take the division, they would need to add nine wins to finish at 87, which is what it took Minnesota to win the division last season.
Detroit already finished second in the Central in ’23, and with Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Spencer Torkelson in the lineup, they could reach a little higher in 2024. Add veteran Mark Canha to the lineup and vets Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda to the rotation, and the Tigers may be cooking. Add another piece or two this winter, and they could end up the clear-cut favorites to win the division by the time Spring Training rolls around.
Related: Amazon interested in Bally Sports and that could change local TV for MLB fans
Cincinnati Reds win the NL Central
Our last pick comes to us because there just isn’t a ton of faith in the NL Central as a whole. The Milwaukee Brewers should see a boost on offense with the signing of top prospect Jackson Chourio, but they also non-tendered co-ace Brandon Woodruff, who was set to miss the 2024 season. Milwaukee has question marks.
The Chicago Cubs finished a game above the Reds in 2023 and started the offseason on fire by bringing over Brewers’ manager Craig Counsell, but they just haven’t done much since. In fact, they’re a lot worse currently, with Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman on the free agent market. Another one of their free agents also landed in Cincinnati in Jeimer Candelario.
Of course, there’s also the St. Louis Cardinals, who finished 71-91 in 2023 and have added some veteran arms to their rotation, but the additions they’ve made haven’t really moved the needle all that much. They may not finish last in 2024, but they’re not quite in the top-of-the-division conversation yet either.
The Reds were baseball’s most exciting team for a few weeks heading into the All Star break, and they pushed for a postseason spot until the end, but ended up two games short of the final Wild Card spot with an 82-80 record. The Reds have loads of young talent on their 26-man roster already, plus four top-100 prospects. This team has talent to play and talent to trade. With the addition of Candelario, Cincinnati now has a bit of a logjam in the infield, and the expectation is that they’ll end up trading 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India. If they do, that should re-allocate some of their talent from the bench to an area they could use a boost.
The Reds may not be title contenders just yet, but they may be good enough to win the Central. If they pull it off, it would be Cincinnati’s first Central crown sine 2012, and just their third since 1995.