Oftentimes, seasons are defined by the MLB players that jump to the net level as much as the stars who were expected to be great.
Who are those guys heading into 2017? Which fast-improving youngsters are ready to take it to the next level? Which steady veterans are on track to become stars?
Which youngster on the rebuilding White Sox do we most like in 2017? What about those on the stalwart NL West franchises? What young pitchers in the normally hitter friendly American League East do we like to take the next step?
We’ve already gone over some of 2017’s top storylines and made some predictions.
Now, which 10 MLB players do we expect to explode with big numbers in 2017?
Dansby Swanson, shortstop, Atlanta Braves
The 2015 No. 1 pick appeared in 2016 for a brief, but impressive cameo.
In 2016 he’ll be a featured player, and one we expect to help lead his team to good things.
Jumping straight to the majors from AA, Swanson slashed at .302/.361/.442 in 129 at-bats. But more important than any number is that he never looked overwhelmed by the Major League scene. In fact, he looked like a 10-year vet.
Swanson unquestionably has high expectations heading into 2017. But the way he handled a big jump in 2016 rather seamlessly gives us confidence that the stage won’t be too big this year.
Swanson is a gifted five-tool baseball player. He’ll enter 2017 with Major League experience and a full Major League camp under his belt.
That only brings reason for optimism heading into the season.
Kevin Gausman, starting pitcher, Baltimore Orioles
For the first time in his brief career, we got to see a full Major League season out of Gausman. He threw 179.2 innings in 2016.
The Orioles can’t really afford to be even that conservative with Gausman in 2017. Not if they want to contend.
They aren’t going to get enough quality innings from the starting rotation, and quite frankly the Baltimore bullpen in front of Zach Britton isn’t good enough to consistently carry the load. Buck Showalter will have to take the reigns off of Gausman, letting him pitch deep into games.
That’s a good thing, though.
The 2016 results gave reason for long term hope. In those 179.2 innings, Gausman posted a 3.61 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and struck out nearly a hitter an inning. It’s also important to remember that he’s only 26. In many ways, he’s still learning how to pitch.
Given the numbers that a relatively raw version of Gausman posted in 2016, it only stands to reason that a slightly more mature version will be even better in 2017.
Domingo Santana, outfielder, Milwaukee Brewers
The 2016 season could have potentially been Santana’s breakout campaign, but he was slowed by injury. Still, what we saw was darn impressive.
In 246 at-bats, Santana slashed at .256/.345/.447 and hit 11 home runs. Extrapolate those numbers out to a full season and we have a man with more than 20 home runs. That’s not bad for a guy who’s only 24.
Additionally, while a .345 OBP isn’t fantastic, it does show that even with a high strikeout rate, Santana is willing to look for his pitches. That limits the holes in his approach that opposing pitchers can take advantage of.
We can also expect the Brewers to give Santana time to grow.
Remember, it was only a year ago that Milwaukee traded the massively powerful Khris Davis as a way to clear room for Santana in the outfield. That means that if he can stay healthy, a very talented hitter will get a full season’s worth of at-bats in the launching pad that is Miller Park. Don’t be surprised to see him push 30 bombs in 2017.
Jose DeLeon, starting pitcher, Tampa Bay Rays
The negative from DeLeon is that he got into four Major League games in 2016 and wasn’t very good. The positive is basically everything else.
In AAA Oklahoma City, DeLeon posted a 2.61 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and a highly impressive K/9 rate of 11.6. In fact, through DeLeon’s MiLB career, he had a 12.1 K/9 rate. Now, he’s moving from Los Angeles to Tampa. In most cases, that wouldn’t be such a great move.
But for someone like DeLeon, it is.
The Dodgers are one of baseball’s best teams. Teams like that can’t afford to let rookies struggle at the Major League level. That shouldn’t be such a problem for the Rays, who are unlikely to be anywhere near contention. DeLeon can go through the typical growing pains of a rookie and not worry about getting demoted.
With the ample MLB time that DeLeon should get, expect him to show the form that’s allowed him to dominate every level of the minors.
Hunter Renfroe, outfielder, San Diego Padres
Playing a full season in AAA last year, Renfroe hit 30 home runs and slugged at .557. When he finally got to the majors in September, the power didn’t go away.
In only 35 at-bats, Renfroe hit four long balls and slugged at .800.
Granted, a 60 home-run season is probably not in the cards, so we’re not expecting that kind of clip again. But as the presumed starting right fielder entering the year, we are expecting Renfroe to show a lot of power.
The bad news is that the Padres still boast a rather unimpressive lineup. So statistically, Renfroe may struggle to drive in (or score) many runs.
There’s some good news there, too.
One, playing time isn’t likely to be a big problem. Two, Renfroe figures to bat near the top of the San Diego order. If he’s not batting right in front of or behind Wil Myers to start the year, expect him to slide into one of those spots in the early going. So, he’ll get a lot of at-bats in the prime part of the order.
Look for that to translate into a big statistical year, giving Padres fans a key youngster to pin their hopes on for a brighter future.
Julio Urias, starting pitcher, Los Angeles Dodgers
By and large, the Dodgers were conservative with Urias in 2016. Between AAA Oklahoma City and the majors, Urias was held to only 122 innings in 29 appearances and 22 starts.
But when he was out there, Urias was excellent. In 45 AAA innings, he posted a 1.40 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 49 strikeouts. When moving up to Los Angeles, Urias posted a 3.39 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 84 strikeouts in 77 innings. The Major League WHIP is a little high but remember, Urias didn’t even turn 20 until August of 2016.
In terms of pitches and innings, expect the Dodgers to remain relatively cautious with Urias. But now he’s already got more MLB experience and success than plenty of pitchers a few years older.
Even with a conservative watch, Urias is expected to take a step forward in 2017. He was missing a lot of bats in 2016, so those numbers were not fluky. Hitters just had a hard time making solid contact.
If anything, his high WHIP was the outlier in 2016. The low ERA and strong strikeout rate were solid indicators that hitters weren’t making loud contact. A few balls might have found holes, but the other numbers show that’s less likely to happen in the future, beginning with 2017.
Even on a conservative pitch and innings count, expect good numbers from the Los Angeles youngster.
Tim Anderson, shortstop, Chicago White Sox
Entering 2016, we knew that Anderson would be a good speed guy if nothing else. During the 2015 season, he swiped 49 bases in AA Birmingham in only 125 games.
The steals were there upon getting called up to the White Sox in 2016. In 410 at-bats, he stole a solid 10 bags and was only cut down twice. But surprisingly, Anderson showed a fair amount of power, slugging nine home runs. In 1,374 MiLB at-bats, he hit only 19 bombs.
Might that be a sign of things to come? Hitting in a powerful lineup at a home run friendly park, is Anderson only just now finding his power? This is a guy who consistently ranked as a top prospect in the minors when he was barely ever hitting the ball over the wall.
If Anderson bats up in the order, don’t expect him to steal too many bases. The lineup is just too powerful to risk losing runners on base to steals. But if he bats down in the order, 40 steals is in play. If not, he won’t steal that many bags, but something like 20/20 is realistic. Batting early in the Chicago order, Anderson would get good pitches to hit.
Either way, Anderson is in line to have a big statistical season, improving on an impressive rookie year.
Ty Blach, starting pitcher, San Francisco Giants
Blach showed a lot of promise in 2016, which we expect will translate to even bigger things in 2017. But before we get into the positive, the biggest negative needs to be addressed.
If healthy, San Francisco’s top four starting pitchers will be Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, and Matt Moore, leaving only one spot open in the rotation. If Matt Cain remains healthy through spring training, expect that spot to go to him. Bruce Bochy has shown extreme loyalty to veterans nowhere near as accomplished throughout their careers as Cain.
But Cain hasn’t had a healthy season for a long time. At some point, a spot is going to open up. That’s where Blach comes in.
In 2016, Blach pitched 162.2 innings in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League. In those innings, he accrued a 3.43 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Upon getting called up to the Giants, he posted a 1.06 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. Included in that was a simply dominant performance against Clayton Kershaw in a must-win game.
The knock on Blach is that he pitches to contact. But he’s throwing to a Gold Glove-winning catcher in Buster Posey, and has Gold Glove-winning middle infielders behind him in Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik. Additionally, if you have to pitch to contact, the spacious AT&T Park is a great place to do it.
At some point in 2017, Blach is going to get his chance. When that happens, look for good things.
Ryon Healy, third baseman, Oakland Athletics
The 2016 season didn’t offer many positives for the A’s, but the play of Ryon Healy was dynamite. In only 269 at-bats, Healy hit 13 home runs and slashed at .305/.337/.524. This was after splitting 337 at-bats between AA and AAA, slashing at .326/.382/.558, and 14 home runs. By some measures, in fact, his 2016 season was an historically good rookie campaign.
With a full year’s worth of at-bats, Healy’s numbers only figure to get better.
Why the optimism?
As is the case with most of these MLB players expected to explode, Healy is now acclimated to the Major League level. He’s not likely to be overwhelmed by anything he sees. That would have happened in 2016.
Additionally, Healy won’t be splitting at-bats with anyone. Danny Valencia and Billy Butler are both gone. That opens up a window for Healy to be a full time player.
Lastly, with the addition of Trevor Plouffe, Healy is expected to play predominantly at first base and designated hitter. Those are far less strenuous defensive positions than third base, which is where Healy played a season ago. Now, he can focus even more on improving as a hitter.
Healy wasn’t especially touted heading into 2016, even within the Athletics organization. But sometimes scouts are wrong. We’re expecting to see big things from Healy in 2017, continuing to show how much of a mistake overlooking him was.
Danny Duffy, starting pitcher, Kansas City Royals
Duffy is different than most players on this list. He’s 28 and debuted in 2011. His MLB career is not in its infancy stages. Still, we feel he’s now ready to jump to the next level.
In 2016, Duffy posted a 3.51 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and struck out 188 batters in 179.2 innings. What caused the improvement?
According to Fangraphs, Duffy’s fastball averaged 94.8 MPH in 2016. From 2013-15, the heaters averaged 93.7, 93.2, and 93.8, respectively. He’s always had a plus fastball, but it’s still improving.
But what we really like is the increased use of the changeup. In 2014 and 2015, Duffy threw his changeup 9.4 and 10.7 percent of the time. In 2016, he used it 17.1 percent of the time. He also dropped what was an ineffective curve from his game.
The increased use of the change shows that he’s really getting comfortable with it. That will only increase as the years go by and he throws it more. With Duffy’s fastball, a decent changeup is a lethal weapon.
Duffy is well positioned to front the Kansas City rotation. The way his pitches are improving gives us reason to expect big things, even compared to a very good 2016 season.