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The Miami Dolphins and cornerback Xavien Howard are at an impasse, with the All-Pro defender requesting either a pay increase or to be traded from the team.
At first glance, Howard has good reasons to feel undervalued. He was the first defensive back to log double-digit interceptions since Antonio Cromartie (2007). He also led the league in pass deflections (20, started all 16 games for the Dolphins for the first time since 2017 and surrendered just a 53.0 passer rating in coverage, per PFF.
Howard has a case for another raise, even after signing a 2019 extension that then made him the highest-paid cornerback in the NFL. He wants that title back, especially since teammate Bryon Jones (fifth highest-paid corner) makes more per season than Howard.
But here are a few reasons the Dolphins should entertain Xavien Howard trade offers instead of extending him.
Feasting on poor offenses
While Howard’s 2020 stats were phenomenal, a closer look at the numbers leaves much to be desired.
He held opposing wide receivers to zero catches three times last season. But those offenses were the 1-15 Jacksonville Jaguars, the C.J Bethard-led San Francisco 49ers and the 2-14 New York Jets.
Meanwhile, against elite offenses, Howard wasn’t nearly as dominant
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), his five lowest-graded coverage games came against the New England Patriots (Week 1), Buffalo Bills (Week 2, 17), the Seattle Seahawks (Week 4) and the Arizona Cardinals (Week 9).
Great cornerbacks get beat by good offenses all the time, as is the nature of the position. The more worrying sign is how feasting on poor offensive play padded his stats last season.
While he snagged interceptions from stellar quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russel Wilson, here are the other QBs he picked off last year:
- Gardner Minshew II, Jimmy Garoppolo, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Sam Darnold, Brandon Allen and Matt Barkley
Again, great cornerbacks should feast on below-average quarterbacks. But it’s worth noting how much this inflated his end-of-year statistics.
Interceptions aren’t sticky
Howard is a ball hawk in every sense of the term, but even the NFL’s best defensive playmakers haven’t sustained their interception output year-to-year.
New England Patriots corner Stephon Gilmore, Minnesota Vikings safety Anthony Harris of the Minnesota Vikings and Bills corner Tre’Davious White led the NFL with six interceptions apiece. The following season, they put up one, zero and three interceptions, respectively.
Going back to Cromartie, the last player to have 10 picks in a season, he also regressed. He pulled in just two interceptions the following year, despite having 168 more coverage snaps.
Even Marcus Peters, considered one of the NFL’s best ball hawks today, has not been able to recreate the interception highs of his early days in the league. He had eight interceptions his rookie season in 2015 and six the next year. However, he hasn’t grabbed more than five in any of his last four seasons.
Granted, Howard not only led the league in interceptions last season, but was in a three-way tie for the lead in 2018, too. He’d likely argue his track record so far shows he can sustain a high interception rate in a way others haven’t, and he may be right. But that would undoubtedly make him an outlier.
Long story short: If the Dolphins choose to reward Howard with a new contract, they should do so based on his snap-for-snap play, not his interception highs.
Allocation of resources
The Dolphins seemingly value the cornerback position more than any other team in the league. That’s not unexpected, considering head coach Brian Flores’ past experience with the Patriots, which also put a premium on its secondary. Plus, it’s a viable strategy to build a team back to front, prioritizing stopping the passing game above all else.
However, there comes a point where a line should be drawn.
According to Over the Cap, the Dolphins have the most money devoted to the cornerback position by a wide margin in 2021. This season, the team has just under $43 million being spent on the position, accounting for about 45% of its overall spending on defense.
The Patriots are in second for overall spending on cornerbacks with $34.6 million devoted to the position this season. That’s just 31% of the team’s overall spending on that side of the football.
To put the Dolphins spending further into perspective, the gap between Miami and New England in spending on corners is greater than the gap between New England and the New York Giants, which will spend the seventh-most on the position in 2021.
The team’s spending on cornerbacks has to stop somewhere, especially with weaknesses along the offensive and defensive lines persisting. Even if it means losing an integral piece of a unit near the top of our Sportsnaut NFL defense rankings, trading Howard might be the best option.