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Why the Dallas Cowboys should be the Super Bowl favorites

Dallas Cowboys
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Before the 2021 NFL season began, many viewed the Dallas Cowboys as a playoff contender with a defense that held this team back from reaching its ceiling. As we enter the final weeks of the regular season, the Cowboys should be viewed as the Super Bowl favorite and the best team in the NFL.

This is about more than an overreaction to one game. Dallas decimated the Washington Football Team on Sunday Night Football, catching the attention of the NFL world with a statement performance that showcased what this team is capable of accomplishing.

Instead, this is a culmination of years of excellent decisions by the front office. The Cowboys have been one of the best teams at drafting in recent years, with their 2020 and 2021 draft classes standing out even more. Pair that with improved coaching and one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, you’ve got the ingredients for a team that can bring the Lombardi Trophy back to Dallas.

Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs gives Dallas Cowboys defense a new edge

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

A year ago, this was one of the worst defenses in football. Under the play-calling of defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, Trevon Diggs struggled in his rookie season, the pass rush lacked consistency and the Cowboys’ secondary gave up big plays routinely.

But changes made this offseason resulted in one of the most unexpected defensive turnarounds in years. It’s a credit to Smith, Diggs and a rookie season from Micah Parsons like we’ve never seen before.

YearTotal YPG allowedPressure RateSacksINTsAvg. QB rating allowedPPGScoring Rate:
2020386.422.8%3110100.429.643.1%
2021350.226.5%372574.120.831.2%
Dallas Cowboys defensive stats via Pro Football Reference

The improvements are incredible and even more stunning when factoring injuries into the numbers. DeMarcus Lawrence, a two-time Pro Bowl selection, missed 10 games this season with a broken foot. Randy Gregory, enjoying a breakout season, missed five games and still has 37 pressures on the year.

Without two of their best pass rushers, Parsons and Diggs carried this defense. A season after allowing a 96.9 passer rating when targeted in coverage, Diggs is now the leading Defensive Player of the Year candidate thanks to a league-leading 11 interceptions, 21 pass deflections and two pick-sixes. In just his second NFL season, quarterbacks now have a 72.3 passer rating when throwing at the former Alabama star.

But Parsons is the star in Dallas. Enjoying one of the best rookie seasons by a defensive player since Lawrence Taylor, the 12th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft almost instantly became one of the best defenders in the NFL.

  • Micah Parsons stats (2021): 60 solo tackles, 32 hurries, 29 quarterback hits, 18 tackles for loss, 13 sacks, three forced fumbles

With Lawrence and Gregory healthy, we’re seeing a much more dominant version of the Cowboys defensively. They played at a high level in November and that bar is already being surpassed in December.

  • Dallas Cowboys defense stats (Week 13-16): 181.5 pass ypg allowed, 5-10 TD-INT ratio, 13 sacks, 47.6% completion rate, 47.8 passer rating

Dallas now boasts the pieces to match up with the best teams in the NFL. If they draw a matchup with the Green Bay Packers, the pass-rushing trio of Lawrence, Parsons and Gregory will cause problems for Aaron Rodgers and Diggs can match up with Davante Adams. If the Cowboys draw a rematch against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, playing at AT&T Stadium, the Cowboys no longer have to worry about Chris Godwin and this pass rush will make Tom Brady uncomfortable.

But all of that was true before Week 16. What matters even more now is this team has an offense ready to match its defense with elite play.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys’ offense finally clicking

NFL: Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Cowboys don’t have to win shootouts anymore, though this unit is still capable of that at its peak. Instead, Dak Prescott and Co. are tasked with turning great field position into points and building a sizable enough lead for the pass rush to pin its ears back and go wild.

Early in the season, we saw the best version of Prescott and this offense. During a 6-1 stretch, the Cowboys averaged 32.1 points per game with a stellar 110.9 passer rating, a 47.9% third-down conversion rate and only 18 punts. But due to a mix of injuries and poor play, things fell apart in the middle of the season.

From Week 9-15, a 4-3 stretch, Prescott no longer played like an MVP candidate. While he completed 64.8% of his passes, it came with a pedestrian 84.9 passer rating and a 9-6 TD-INT ratio. A Cowboys’ rushing attack that dominated early in the year also struggled, averaging just 104.4 yards per game.

But some public criticisms, extra practice reps and healthier versions of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard made a difference. Amari Cooper voiced his frustrations with his role and Prescott spent additional time working with each of his wide receivers. Even without All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith, Dallas rediscovered its elite offense on Sunday against a defense that allowed just 215.9 passing ypg with 16 sacks from Week 7-14.

  • Dallas Cowboys stats (Week 16): 497 total yards, 6.8 yards per play, 66.7% third-down conversion rate, six TDs

Dallas will face tough defenses in the playoffs, but there are matchups to exploit. If Elliott and Pollard are healthy, they can run against a Packers’ defense allowing 499 rushing yards and 6.7 ypc in the last three games. As for a potential matchup against Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers’ pass rush and secondary isn’t playing at the elite level we saw in 2020.

This is the most well-rounded team in the NFL with the playoffs approaching and just like the Packers, a top left tackle could rejoin the offensive line for the postseason. As long as the coaching continues to deliver and this team doesn’t lose a star, this could finally be the year Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys end their Super Bowl drought.

Related: If you’re a fan of the Cowboys, check out #DallasCowboys rumors, rankings, and news here.

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