Top 10 takeaways from MLB’s first half

Every MLB team has played 83 or more games. That means that we are now beyond the halfway point of the 2016 MLB season.

So, looking back over the last few months, what have been the most significant developments? What are the most important things to remember as we head deeper into the second half of the MLB season?

These are the top 10 takeaways from MLB’s first half.

1. Extremely good and bad teams

When play finished on July 4, six teams were on an extreme pace. The Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, and Texas Rangers concluded their games that day on a 100-win pace. Conversely, the Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves, and Cincinnati Reds all concluded play on Independence Day on a 100-loss pace.

That’s a pretty extreme split when compared to MLB’s recent trends, especially the number of winning teams.

Mind you, that doesn’t even include the Cleveland Indians, who won on July 5 to get on a 100-win pace.

It’s hard to figure out exactly what’s causing this. Of course, it could just be an outlier season. But this could also be a continued product of the expanded postseason. With the Wild Card Game on the schedule, winning the division is a real advantage. So, the best teams are more aggressive than normal on the trade/free agent market and not merely settling.

On the other hand, with an additional Wild Card team, more teams are legitimate playoff contenders. That makes them more aggressive and in turn puts MLB’s truly bad teams at a greater disadvantage more often.

Obviously the second Wild Card has been in place for a few years, and this is the first time we’ve had such drastic splits. This suggests an outlier. Still, it could also be that organizations are now getting used to the new system and building rosters accordingly.

2. Cubs’ overwhelming start

Since Day 1 of the 2016 MLB season, Chicago has been baseball’s best team. Even though the Cubs have cooled down a little bit recently, they still hold baseball’s best record.

So, what’s going right at Wrigley?

The starting pitching has been extraordinary. Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, and Jon Lester all have ERAs under 3.00. Chicago’s other starters — John Lackey and Jason Hammel — are not far behind.

Offensively, the signing of Jason Heyward hasn’t gone well, but just about everything else has. Ben Zobrist has been a sterling addition, while Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant are both real MVP candidates.

The National League is stacked at the top, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Cubs finally break through, win the pennant and possibly the World Series.

3. Even year magic in San Francisco

If you’re not a fan of the Giants, you are no doubt at least a little tired of hearing about this being an even year. But, true to form following World Series wins in 2010, 2012, and 2014, San Francisco leads the NL West with one of MLB’s best records.

The Giants aren’t overwhelming teams like the Cubs, but they are very adept at winning all kinds of games.

Few teams have a stronger 1-2 punch than San Francisco’s duo of Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto. Also, while the Giants don’t hit for much power, they are a good hitting team.

San Francisco is 11th in team batting average, fourth in OBP, fifth in walks drawn, and seventh in hits. So, while the pop may not be there, men are often on base to score when the Giants get other hits.

Certainly, there are teams with scarier overall stats. But San Francisco has consistently won games all year and stands in great shape to make the playoffs. Given the Giants’ playoff success this decade, you’d have to search long and hard for a team that would look forward to seeing Bumgarner, Cueto, Buster Posey, Bruce Bochy and company in the opposite dugout come October.

4. Washington Nationals rebounding from 2015 disappointment

The Nationals have some even year magic of their own. While Washington doesn’t have the playoff success of the Giants, this team did make the playoffs in 2012 and 2014, while missing in 2013 and 2015. The 2016 season has been kind to the Nats, who have one of baseball’s best records.

Now, some Nationals are likely due for regression. Daniel Murphy and Wilson Ramos are both having career seasons, and realistically they should be expected to come back closer to normal at some point. On the other hand, stars like Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon could be much better. A strong second half from them could offset any regression from the others.

Washington will be judged by whatever playoff success it enjoys. The Nationals have had great regular seasons in the past. The same can be said for manager Dusty Baker. But the Nats and Baker have both consistently struggled to find postseason success.

This could either be the year where all of that ends, or another in a long line of disappointments and frustrations.

5. Are the Rangers this year’s Royals?

The Kansas City Royals didn’t just win the 2015 World Series after narrowly losing in 2014. Kansas City was dominant all year and played like a team on a mission. The 2015 Rangers weren’t quite as close as the Royals were in 2014, but they did hold a 2-0 ALDS lead and held a late lead in the fifth game.

Texas has been the American League’s best team all year. At 53-32, the Rangers hold the American League’s best record. While the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros are both in playoff contention with winning records, neither is close to the Rangers in the American League West.

While Prince Fielder is having a down year, Rougned Odor, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Cole Hamels and Colby Lewis are all having stellar seasons.

The Rangers have also gotten a great first half from Ian Desmond, who looks like one of the offseason’s savviest signings.

The better news for Texas is that its biggest weakness lies in the bullpen. While a poor bullpen is very frustrating, it’s also the easiest thing to upgrade at the trade deadline. If the Rangers do bolster the bullpen, this team will be very hard to beat.

6. Good summer for Cleveland

June was very good to the city of Cleveland. As the Cavaliers were winning the NBA Championship, the Indians were 22-6 and in the midst of a 14-game winning streak.

Before that streak started, the American League Central looked like it might be a close race. Now, not so much. Cleveland is up 7.5 games. There’s a lot of baseball left to be played. But if the Indians are going to lose this lead, a couple things need to happen.

One, the teams chasing Cleveland will probably need to dominate the remaining head-to-head games. The Chicago White Sox are in fourth place, 8.5 games back. The Indians are 7-2 against them. The Royals are in third place, 8 games back. Cleveland has managed a 6-4 record against the defending champs. Both of those look modest compared to the Indians’ 11-0 mark against the second-place Detroit Tigers.

So, for any of these teams to dominate Cleveland from here on out, something drastic will have to happen.

If that doesn’t happen, then the Indians will need to go on a few extended losing streaks. With a solid 3.79 ERA, Corey Kluber has the worst ERA among Cleveland’s starters. Trevor Bauer has the worst WHIP, coming in at 1.16. With a rotation like that, long losing streaks aren’t all that likely.

June was good in The Land. October might also be pretty great.

7. Baltimore Orioles slug to top of the standings

The Orioles have baseball’s most powerful offense. They have not only ridden Baltimore to the top of the American League East standings, but also to a history making month of June.

The Orioles have some issues, notably featuring a mediocre starting pitching staff. If the front office can find help via the trade market, this is a team that can be similar to last year’s Toronto Blue Jays.

Adam Jones and Chris Davis have had some struggles, but both have fine numbers at the season’s midway point. Manny Machado is a real MVP candidate. If Desmond is the offseason’s savviest signing, the acquisition of Mark Trumbo was its savviest trade.

Additionally, while Baltimore doesn’t have a great starting rotation, it does boast a good bullpen. That will take the burden off of whatever starters the Orioles might add in a trade.

Baltimore is probably not as good as Cleveland or Texas. Still, the gap is close enough that it could beat either in a playoff series. If nothing else, the power bats will make the Orioles a fun team to watch.

8. Marlins are a darkhorse threat

Right now, the Cubs, Giants and Nationals all hold fairly significant division leads. So, the National League Wild Card game will be the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Big Apple against Hollywood? Noah Syndergaard against Clayton Kershaw? That sure seems fun.

That all might happen, but do not sleep on the Miami Marlins. They sit only 1.5 games behind the Mets for that second Wild Card spot. Best of all, it feels like Miami can still be better.

Yes, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and J.T. Realmuto are all having nice seasons. But while he’s played better recently, Giancarlo Stanton sports a .226/.320/.464 slash line. He may not get to the .265/.346/.606 line from 2015. Still, a player of Stanton’s caliber will probably be closer to .265/.346/.606 than .226/.320/.464 come season’s end. If that happens, we’ll see a strong second half.

The Marlins are also set to get Dee Gordon back from suspension soon. Yes, Gordon will be ineligible for the playoffs, but he can provide great top of the order spark in the playoff push.

Miami is only 5.5 games behind Washington. While that’s significant, it’s not insurmountable. Even if it comes down to the Wild Card Game, the Marlins are in decent shape.

If Miami is in that game, we’ll likely see Jose Fernandez pitch. Fernandez has a 2.69 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 146 strikeouts in 100.1 innings pitched. In a winner-take-all game, you could do a lot worse than that.

9. David Ortiz going out in style. What about his team?

What kind of a year is David Ortiz having? Well, hitting a single not only upsets Big Papi, but causes him to break his bat.

Ortiz is leaving nothing on the field in his final season. He is slashing at .337/.429/.670 and has 19 home runs. Big Papi definitely wants to play into October in his final year. But, will his team comply?

Right now, the Red Sox are in playoff position in the second wild card spot and only three behind the Orioles in the division. So, what’s the problem?

The main thing is the pitching. Boston’s 4.51 ERA is only 21st best in the league. What’s worse is that unlike so many contending teams, the Red Sox pitching doesn’t have a strength. The bullpen is better than the starting rotation, but still well below what a contending team should be.

Ortiz and the offense will be fun to watch through the summer. But in a deep American League playoff race, the pitching will have to get significantly better.

10. Royals magic may not extend to 2016

Kansas City is not out of playoff contention. But the Royals are going to have a lot of work to do if they’re going to return to October and defend their title.

The backbone of Kansas City is its bullpen. That hasn’t been any different this year. The Royals still have one of MLB’s best bullpens. Unfortunately, the rest of the team has been well below par.

With 334 runs scored, Kansas City ranks 26th in the majors. In order for a bullpen to be completely effective, it needs to be given leads to protect. With so few runs scored, leads will be hard to come by.

That’s especially true when the team in question also boasts a mediocre starting rotation. Danny Duffy has given the starting rotation a nice jolt, but by and large, the starting pitchers have just not performed. Other than Duffy’s 3.11 mark, Ian Kennedy’s 4.04 ERA is the best of any Kansas City starter. Edinson Volquez (4.87) is the only other starter with an ERA under 5.00. That’s just not going to get it done.

The good new is that the Royals are not out of playoff contention. They are only two games out of the American League’s second Wild Card spot. Unfortunately, only the Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels, and Minnesota Twins are out of the race in the American League. It’s hard to beat that many teams.

So, what happens if Kansas City misses the playoffs? It would be unfair to call the team’s run over. It’s just very hard to be that good for three years in a row. The Royals have played 29 postseason games over the last two years. Playing that deep into October two years in a row will wear anyone out.

So, don’t count this team out in future seasons. Still, the rest of 2016 will be an uphill battle.