Simulation gives Cavs stunningly low chance to win NBA Finals

By David Kenyon

Despite the continued struggles of the Cleveland Cavaliers, many fans and analysts believe LeBron James and Co. will eventually reach the NBA Finals anyway. That shouldn’t necessarily be the case, so says a simulation from Basketball-Reference.com.

According to the site, the “playoff probability report” is an empirical estimate based on simulating the remainder of the season 7,500 times each day.

And the Cavs hold a meager 0.4 percent chance of winning the NBA Finals.

Due to the simulation’s nature, the method does not include theories — for example, how LeBron tends to carry his team through the postseason. No matter if you personally like him, there’s a really good reason his teams have reached the NBA Finals in seven straight seasons.

Nevertheless, it’ll take a little time for many NBA followers to accept the Toronto Raptors owning an Eastern Conference-high 25.4 percent chance of celebrating a league title. The simulation also gives Toronto a 52.0 percent chance of reaching the Finals, while the Cavs hold only a 2.7 mark.

Yes, Cleveland’s actual chances are likely to be viewed more favorably as the team starts winning more often, especially as the playoffs approach.

But the simulation is a great example of just how much the numbers dislike the toiling Cavs right now.