Hindsight is a funny thing when it comes to determining winners and losers from NFL drafts. What might look like a bad draft-day deal out of the gate, might end up being an absolute steal years down the road. It’s intriguing to look back at previous drafts and see where specific players were selected after the dust has settled, especially looking at it from a value perspective.
In any event, here are how some of the biggest draft-day trades of 2013 look one year later. Keep in mind that the sample size is especially small here, so nothing really has been decided yet.
| Rams Acquired | Falcons Acquried |
| Alec Ogletree, Linebacker, Georgia | Desmond Trufant, Cornerback, Washington |
| Stedman Bailey, Wide Receiver, West Virginia | Seventh-Round Pick in 2015 |
| Sixth-Round Pick, Traded to Houston |
Courtesy of Falcfans.com: Trufant was a stud for the Falcons in 2013.
It remains to be seen just how well this is going to work out for the Rams, who could have had a Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback opposite Janoris Jenkins if they had stood pat. For the Falcons, this was one heck of a deal. Trufant came in and started all 16 games as a rookie, recording 70 tackles, 17 passes defended and two interceptions. He’s a shutdown guy for them, and hasn’t even hit his prime.
Meanwhile, Ogletree performed much better than most people expected he would as a rookie. He started all 16 games as well, recording 100-plus tackles, six forced fumbles and nine passes defended. For his part, Bailey didn’t do anything as a rookie. Attempting to team him up with fellow West VIrginia product Tavon Austin, the third-round pick recorded just 17 receptions for 226 yards without a single touchdown. At the end of the day, this is a deal that might end up working out for both teams.
| 49ers Acquired | Cowboys Acquired |
| Eric Reid, Safety, LSU | Travis Frederick, Center, Wisconson |
| Terrance Williams, Wide Receiver, Baylor |
A couple things here. When it was announced that San Francisco had yielded just a third-round pick to move up from 31 to 18 in the first round, it appeared that Trent Baalke and Co. robbed Jerry Jones’ Cowboys. At the very least, Dallas should have been able to acquire an additional fourth rounder in this deal.
Then San Francisco shocked everyone by taking Reid over other targets that many believed it would end up selecting after the trade up. Well that worked out pretty darn well. Reid recorded over 90 tackles with four interceptions and 12 passes defended in a Pro Bowl campaign. He’s a legit top-five safety in the NFL right now.
As it relates to the Cowboys, many skeptics gave them a straight “F” for the selection of Frederick, who many had pegged as a mid-round pick. Surprisingly, Frederick ended up being one of the top rookie offensive linemen in the entire league, which included three players selected in the top five. He’s going to be a Pro Bowl-caliber player for years to come.
The icing on the cake here is that Dallas acquired Williams in this deal. Despite some struggles down the stretch, he put up over 700 receiving yards and figures to start opposite Dez Bryant in 2014. This was a solid deal for both sides. Dallas had multiple holes to fill and the 49ers were targeting a specific player with a ton of picks.
| Raiders Acquired | Dolphins Acquired |
| D.J. Hayden, Cornerback, Houston | Dion Jordan, Defensive End, Oregon |
| Menelik Watson, Offensive Tackle, Florida State |
Are the Miami Dolphins on the verge of blowing their team up? (@TheBigLead): http://t.co/GMngdNHOiD pic.twitter.com/WxwaUzNeXL
— USA TODAY Sports (@usatodaysports) March 1, 2014
On the opposite end of the spectrum, this deal doesn’t seem like it has worked out thus far for either team. Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie reached big time by taking a player that had serious injury concerns heading into the draft. Concerns that were magnified after the Hayden missed half of his rookie season due to injury.
In acquiring a second rounder in this deal, Oakland might have also missed on that pick. Watson was absolutely atrocious in limited playing time last year. So much so that the Raiders had to go out there and sign two free agents this offseason.
The likes of Sheldon Richardson and Star Lotulelei were picked after Hayden in the first round, while Johnthan Banks and Kiko Alonso were available in the secound round.
As it relates to the Dolphins, they missed big time. Jordan was perceived as a freak athlete coming out of Oregon and seemed to have what it took to be an elite pass rusher heading into his rookie campaign. Unfortunately for fans in South Beach, the Dolphins figured it made sense to hold Jordan back as a rookie. He recorded just 26 tackles and two sacks in limited playing time as a rookie. Ziggy Ansah, who the Detroit Lions selected two picks later, recorded eight sacks as a rookie.
| Patriots Acquired | Vikings Acquired |
| Jamie Collins, Linebacker, Temple | Cordarrelle Patterson, Wide Receiver, Tennessee |
| Logan Ryan, Cornerback, Rutgers | |
| Josh Boyce, Wide Receiver, TCU | |
| Seventh-Round Pick, Traded |
This was an interesting trade. For what seems like the first time since the Reagan Administration, the Patriots were short draft picks last season. Mainly due to the trade of Percy Harvin to the Seattle Seahawks, the Vikings were flush with picks. This enabled these two teams to come together in a deal that looks like it has worked out for both.
In getting Patterson, the Vikings were able to replace the headache (pun intended) that was Harvin with a young playmaker at a position of utmost need. While Patterson didn’t see the field too much early in the season, he picked it up big time later. The Tennessee product put up over 2,000 all-purpose yards and scored six total touchdowns. He also put up 344 yards from scrimmage in the final four games of the season.
Needing more help than one first-round pick could bring, New England was able to turn its top pick into three players and another selection it used to move up in the later rounds. Collins, one of my draft crushes from last April, started eight games and recorded over 50 tackles with five passes defended. He’s going to be a full-time starter as a sophomore in 2014.
Ryan dropped big time during the 2013 NFL draft, falling on to the Patriots’ laps in the third round. He started seven games as a rookie at a multitude of positions in the secondary, recording five interceptions and 10 passes defended in the process. Ryan figures to play a larger role as a full-time player in 2014. Boyce struggled with injuries and consistency as a rookie. In reality, there seemed to be better options on the board in the fourth round for the Patriots. Higher-upside skill-position players such as Quinton Patton, Denard Robinson (athlete) and Kenny Stills were still on the board there. Despite giving up four picks for one, Minnesota seems to have come out on top in this one, at least through one season.
| Bills Acquired | Rams Acquired |
| EJ Manuel, Quarterback, Florida State | Tavon Austin, Wide Receiver, West Virginia |
| Kiko Alonso, Linebacker, Oregon | T.J. McDonald, Safety, USC |
| Marquise Goodwin, Wide Receiver, Texas | |
| Chris Gragg, Tight End, Arkansas |
Timothy J. Ludwig, USA Today: Alonso was stellar as a rookie in 2013.
In a trade that might end up backfiring on the Rams down the road, they traded two key picks and a later rounder in order to move into the top 10 and select an under-sized Tavon Austin, who really didn’t have the impact that they expected as a rookie. All said, Austin accounted for less than 600 yards from scrimmage and put the football on the ground four times. It was an awkward fit to begin with, especially due to the physical defenses St. Louis goes up against the NFC West. Long term, it remains to be seen whether he’s going to be able to handle the grind of the NFL.
McDonald, once a high-rated prospect, was picked up in the third round. The son of former Pro Bowl safety Tim McDonald, this youngster broke his leg in late September and missed six games. Upon his return, McDonald played pretty well as the Rams starting strong safety, a position that seems to fit his skillset to a T. In the end, he could very well be the Rams’ biggest addition in this deal.
Despite the fact that most experts had Geno Smith ranked as the No. 1 quarterback in the 2013 draft, Buffalo was clearly targeting Manuel when it moved down in the first round. Skeptics questioned this move, and Manuel didn’t do much to quiet them as a rookie. Battling injuries throughout the entire season, the young signal caller did compile 13 total touchdowns compared to nine interceptions in 10 starts. He did, however, average less than 200 passing yards per outing. That’s going to have to change moving forward. With all that said, the talent is there. Expect Manuel to be given multiple chances over the next couple seasons to prove he can be a franchise guy. If my opinion matters at all here (it really doesn’t), he will be a solid NFL quarterback. After all, I was one of the few “experts” out there to give him a first-round grade.
Speaking of “experts,” how did everyone miss so badly on Kiko Alonso? The Oregon product was clearly one of the top candidates for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2013. He recorded over 150 tackles with four interceptions, five passes defended and a forced fumble as a rookie. As it relates to Goodwin, the speedster put up a few solid games, but wasn’t a consistent performer. Moving forward, he’s likely to see a larger role with the Bills, even with Mike Williams now on the team. Overall, the Bills obviously came out on top in this deal. Ultimately, we have to look five years down the road to see how Austin and Manuel pan out.
| 49ers Acquired | Titans Acquired |
| Tank Carradine, Defensive End, Florida State | Justin Hunter, Wide Receiver, Tennessee |
| Third-Round Pick in 2014 |
San Francisco originally acquired the second-round pick it moved to Tennessee in the Alex Smith deal. Feeling the need to get even more out of that original deal with the Kansas City Chiefs, Trent Baalke and Co. moved down just six spots in the second round and acquired an additional third-round pick in the draft next week. In the process, San Francisco was able to nab a Florida State product in Carradine that Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller ranked as the fifth-best prospect in the entire draft, even after he tore his ACL in his last game with the Seminoles.
Talk about a great trade from San Francisco’s perspective, even though “Tank,” as he is called, sat out the entire 2013 campaign. It really is like having a top-five pick in the 2014 draft added to the mix. Just think about that for a second. In terms of the third rounder next week, San Francisco can easily trade that in order to acquire a higher pick in the initial round.
Hunter was a blessing for the Titans in 2013. With Kenny Britt playing a smaller role and eventually moving on to the St. Louis Rams in free agency, Hunter was one of the most valuable rookies on their roster. He averaged nearly 20 yards per receptions and scored four touchdowns as a rookie. Hunter will likely find himself in the starting lineup this upcoming season. With that said, the Titans could have selected him with their original pick, not yielding a third rounder next week. Advantage is clearly on the 49ers’ side here.
| Cardinals Acquired | Chargers Acquired |
| Kevin Minter, Linebacker, LSU | Manti Te’o, Linebacker, Notre Dame |
| Earl Watford, Guard, James Madison (X) | |
| Andre Ellington, Running Back, Clemson (X) |
(X)Arizona acquired a fourth-round pick from San Diego to move down seven spots in the second round. It then traded down with the New York Giants in the fourth round, acquiring the picks it would end up using on Watford and Ellington.
Wow, did Arizona pull of an amazing deal here. Just moving down seven spots in the second round, it was able to land a likely starting guard and a electric running back that tallied over 1,000 yards and averaged six yards per touch as a rookie. Ellington’s future is as bright as any young running back in the NFL and he came to the Cardinals for pennies on the dollar.
Minter was also an important acquisition here. He’s going to be tasked with replacing Karlos Dansby, who moved on to the Cleveland Browns in free agency. The Cardinals were able to let Dansby walk because of this deal, saving a lot of money in the process.
Always an enigma, Te’o played well in 12 starts for the Chargers last year. He recorded over 70 tackles with four passes defended. Unfortunately for fans in Southern California, this Notre Dame product doesn’t figure to be much more than a decent starting linebacker in the NFL. Looking back, the Chargers obviously would rather have what Arizona ended up with in this deal, but hindsight is 20-20.
| Packers Acquired | 49ers Acquired |
| Eddie Lacy, Running Back, Alabama | Vance McDonald, Tight End, Rice |
| Sixth-Round Pick, Traded |
Another wow moment here. San Francisco actually traded up in the second round to nab McDonald, who was a downright disaster as a pass catcher last season. In fact, two important drops throughout the season helped cost the 49ers home-field advantage in the playoffs and a likely trip to the Super Bowl. However harsh that might sound, he just wasn’t that good last year. If a team decides to move up early in the draft, it must hit on that player. Despite a ton of raw talent, it remains to be seen whether McDonald will pan out.
The same cannot be said for Lacy, who dazzled fans as a rookie. Following a slow start to the season, this Alabama product put up over 1,400 total yards and 11 scores in 2013. Moving forward, he’s going to give Aaron Rodgers a dynamic running back weapon, something the Super Bowl-winning quarterback hasn’t had in his time with the Packers. That backfield now looks downright scary. The one saving grace for San Francisco here is that it was able to pick up Marcus Lattimore, who would have been a first rounder if not for injury concerns, in the fourth round.
Photo: Mike Dinovo, USA Today