Just over a week after the San Francisco Giants earned their third World Series in five years, the MLB hot stove is about to get going big time. There are a ton of top-tier free agents that will either sign with new teams or return to the cities they starred in over the past few years.
From Jon Lester and Max Scherzer at the mound to Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval on the field, these top free agents are difference makers.
Taking into account rumors around the hot stove and our own predictions of what might happen this offseason, here are our picks of where the top-10 MLB free agents will land.
1. Jon Lester, Starting Pitcher, Oakland Athletics
According to the NY Daily News, the New York Yankees aren’t expected to target any of the top-three starting pitchers this offseason. While that could very well change, it is a sign that one of Lester’s top potential landing spots could be out of the equation right now. Now add into account the fact that Lester’s current team was never really in the conversation, and his price tag seems to indicate that the field of suitors will be limited to just a few teams.
Lester, 30, had the best season of an already stellar career this past year. He posted a 16-11 record with a 2.46 ERA and 1.10 WHIP between the Boston Red Sox and Oakland in 2014. There have been some rumors that Boston may very well make a play to re-sign Lester and it does have the money to get something done. Though, that franchise has been against giving long-term deals to players on the wrong side of 30.
One team that makes a whole lot of sense for Lester is the Chicago Cubs. After bringing in the biggest free agent thus far in the form of manager Joe Maddon, the pieces are in place for the Cubs to make a play for some big-name free agents. Adding Lester to the mix with another frontline starter in the form of Jake Arrieta could be huge for this team. And while Chicago may be a year away from contention, Lester could very well be sold on the plans here. Prediction: Chicago Cubs
2. Max Scherzer, Starting Pitcher, Detroit Tigers
Scherzer might not have been as dominating this past season as he was in 2013, but he was still able to put up 18 wins with a solid ERA under 3.30. Those are ace numbers right there. Interestingly enough, Scherzer is being seen as a better long-term option than Lester despite the fact that both are 30 years old. While some teams won’t buy into that, it makes sense due to the fact that Scherzer has put up about 350 less innings than his free-agent counterpart.
Considering Scott Boras is pegged to negotiate Scherzer’s deal, you can expect him to get a huge payday. This is yet another indication that larger-market teams will be bidding against one another for Scherzer. Considering the Los Angeles Angels are rumored to be looking to move infielders for pitchers, Scherzer could very well be a free-agent target of the defending AL West champions. The idea here would be to move the contracts of the likes of Howie Kendrick and David Freese in order to help free up money for Scherzer. Prediction: Los Angeles AngelsÂ
3. Pablo Sandoval, Third Base, San Francisco Giants
After yet another World Series championship, Sandoval is fully prepared to bank in big time here. He turned down a Giants offer during Spring Training and the two sides didn’t talk extension during the regular season. Don’t take this as an indication that Sandoval will not return to the Giants. Rather, the two sides likely just wanted to wait until after the year to work out a deal.
And while Sandoval turned down the Giants qualifying offer last week, he has indicated an interest in returning to the only city he’s played in throughout a seven-year career. The largest issue with finding a value for Sandoval is his lack of regular season success compared to amazing performances during the Giants three World Series runs in the past five years. It’s also important to note that his conditioning has been a point of contention in San Francisco. With all that said, it’s hard to imagine the defending champs letting Panda walk. Prediction: San Francisco Giants
4. James Shields, Starting Pitcher, Kansas City Royals
Big Game didn’t necessarily live up to his nickname during the postseason, but he’s a frontline starter with a capability of putting up 200-plus innings and 34 starts. After all, Shields has surpassed that plateau in each of the past seven seasons. At 32 years old, he will likely draw a shorter-term deal than other top free-agent pitchers on the market. So, that could very well intrigue some teams out there.
It also goes without saying that the Royals will not be able to afford Shields, especially considering they will be tasked with going up against larger-market teams. With the Yankees and Red Sox presumably out of the equation, Shields will have to look elsewhere to draw a big contract. In the first wild card, I am looking at the Seattle Mariners as a reasonable landing spot. Adding Shields to the mix with Felix Hernandez would be absolutely huge for the team’s chances of competing in the AL West this upcoming season. And in reality, this is franchise that seems to have the necessary money to go out there and get a big name in free agency. Prediction: Seattle MarinersÂ
5. Nelson Cruz, Outfield, Baltimore Orioles
MLB’s free agent rules impacted him big time last offseason. After the Texas Rangers made him a qualifying offer, most teams that decided to sign the star outfielder would have had to yield a first-round pick. Coming off a 50-game suspension for PED use, there weren’t many willing to do that. Cruz ended up signing a one-year, $8 million contract in late February. He proceeded to hit a MLB-high 40 homers for the eventual AL East winning Baltimore Orioles.
Now a free agent and without the aforementioned restrictions, Cruz is looking to strike it big with a four or five-year deal. Cruz has indicated that the Orioles are his first choice, and it’s hard to imagine them being outbid by other teams on the open market. Simply put, they need that power in the lineup in order to repeat as division champs and contend for a World Series title. Look for a five-year, $75 million deal between the two sides. Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
6. Hanley Ramirez, Shortstop, Los Angeles Dodgers
There are some concerns here. Can Ramirez stay healthy over the course of a full season? After all, he has missed 114 games over the past two years. In addition to this, teams may be wondering whether Ramirez still has the range to play shortstop moving forward. That latter issue might not mean a whole heck of a lot considering he does have the arm to play third base.
At the plate, Ramirez is a difference maker. He hit .345 for the Dodgers in 2013 before dropping down to a solid .283 average this past season. He also racked up 48 extra-base hits.
A logical fit would be the New York Yankees, who are looking to replace Derek Jeter at short. And while the Yankees are said to be avoiding the big-time pitchers on the market, this is a free-agent addition they might have to make. Even if Brian Cashman and Co. don’t believe Ramirez can play short, New York still has a potential void to fill at third. Despite looking for a five-year deal, Ramirez will be in high demand because of his ability at the plate. Prediction: New York Yankees
7. Victor Martinez, Designated Hitter, Detroit Tigers
Despite being at the relatively ripe age of 35, Martinez put up a ridiculously good offensive season in 2014. He hit .335 and led the Majors with a .409 on-base percentage. The near full-time designated hitter also drove in over 100 runs for the fourth time in his career.
Considering Martinez won’t necessarily be tasked with playing the field too often, his options are going to be limited to the American League. And that’s where the Oakland Athletics, who will have some money to spend after dealing Yoenis Cespedes to the Red Sox during the season, come into play. They will likely have an opening at designated hitter and need to add some pop to go with Brandon Moss and Josh Donaldon. We know very well Billy Beane had a long-term back-up plan on offense when he traded Cespedes, and that could come in the form of Martinez. Prediction: Oakland Athletics
8. Russell Martin, Catcher, Pittsburgh Pirates
Martin is going to be an under-the-radar option in free agency. Fresh off a 2014 season that saw him hit .290 with 67 RBI’s and playing a premium position, there is going to be a ton of interest in his services. One team comes to mind here is the Chicago Cubs, and it would make for a nice little battery. 27-year-old catcher Welington Castillo hit less than .240 last season and hasn’t tallied more than 46 RBI’s in either of his two full seasons in the Majors. Martin would be a nice upgrade here. Prediction: Chicago Cubs
9. Melky Cabrera, Outfield, Toronto Blue Jays
Cabrera is coming off a 2014 campaign that saw him put up a .301 average with 16 homers and over 70 RBI’s. He may have some red flags, mainly a PED suspension, but the talent at the plate is undeniable. Teams looking to add Cabrera to the mix have to realize he can only play left field, so that’s also going to limit Cabrera’s market. One team that’s going to look to add some pop at the plate is the Seattle Mariners, who simply don’t have any power in the outfield. Cabrera, despite not really putting up huge homer numbers, could add another bat to the middle of the lineup. Prediction: Seattle Mariners
10. Ervin Santana, Starting Pitcher, Atlanta Braves
Santana is among a group of five or six second-tier starting pitchers who should draw some interest on the open market. He’s coming off a really good season with the Atlanta Braves and has consistently put up 200-plus innings throughout the past five years. While the soon-to-be 32 year older isn’t a front-line starter, he would act as a nice addition for a team like that Boston Red Sox who aren’t into spending top money for players on the wrong side of 30. Santana would be a cheaper alternative for a team that will spend this winter. Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Photo: USA Today