By unscientific speculative observation, there are four teams with a legitimate chance to win the 2024 NBA title.
As the season begins, the small tier of contenders is outweighed by the high volume of doormats in the Eastern Conference.
Before the regular season opens Tuesday, here’s our view of the league landscape from bottom to top.
–WAIT ‘TIL NEXT YEAR
Next year might not come for a few more years for these rebuilding teams, and a playoff bid would be downright miraculous.
30. Charlotte Hornets
Individual pieces to build a foundation exist, but our doubt is borne out of whether they can be fit together. LaMelo Ball has All-Star chops and Brandon Miller is on our All-Upside Team. One more year, one more piece, and we could be sold.
29. Washington Wizards
Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma are equally capable of scoring 50 and blindly posting a string of 2-for-20 nights. Maybe they’ll outscore some teams, but we’re taking the over on losses for this bunch.
28. Detroit Pistons
Can Cade Cunningham turn into Devin Booker under Monty Williams? If so, we’ll accept the plate-of-crow special.
27. Portland Trail Blazers
Can’t win with or without Dame? A more talented seven-man rotation is in place but Portland isn’t planning on racing this season.
26. San Antonio Spurs
Victor Wembanyama makes the playoffs seem feasible for some reason. Reality says the loaded West won’t make room for San Antonio to sneak in just yet.
–PLAYOFFS WITHIN REACH
There’s a subset of teams that could slide into the postseason picture or fade into the darkness before the trade deadline and All-Star Game. These are those teams.
25. Toronto Raptors
The Larry O’Brien landing in Canada feels like 10 years ago in part because Kawhi and Fred VanVleet found greener pastures. Contending might not be in the best interest of the Raptors, who could opt to instead shop Pascal Siakam and Gary Trent and chase from rebuild mode.
24. Houston Rockets
So much to like, so little to trust. If Houston’s talent takes to guidance from new coach Ime Udoka and newcomer Fred VanVleet, prepare for liftoff.
23. Orlando Magic
Paolo Banchero does a lot of things right and flashed star power as a rookie. But unless Orlando trades its way into perimeter shooting, even the play-in games are a reach.
22. Brooklyn Nets
Maybe the Ben Simmons renaissance becomes reality. Or maybe the Nets are destined to float around .500 for the next few years.
21. Utah Jazz
Behind Lauri Markkanen stands a load of youthful talent looking to contribute. Will multiple lottery picks develop rapidly enough to push Utah into the playoff picture?
20. Indiana Pacers
Arguably the most likeable roster in the NBA thanks to Tyrese Haliburton, our concern with Indy is matching up defensively in crunch time.
–FEELING THE HEAT
Nobody thought Miami had the chops to swing from a team trailing the Chicago Bulls entering the fourth quarter of the play-in tournament finale to the Eastern Conference title. If there are teams in the same bracket this season, it’s likely from this group.
19. Atlanta Hawks
Trae Young and Dejounte Murray can win a series. What Atlanta gets from the rest of the bunch determines the Hawks’ staying power.
18. Memphis Grizzlies
Ja Morant starts the season with a suspension and Derrick Rose is 15 years removed from his last starring role in Memphis. A slow start could either cause an implosion of epic proportion or set the stage for a dramatic comeback story authored by Morant.
17. Chicago Bulls
Billy Donovan could prove this roster isn’t a test in defined insanity, but why do we expect the same cast to produce a dramatically different result?
16. Oklahoma City Thunder
Chet Holmgren has Rookie of the Year ability and opportunity, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is ready to prove he’s unstoppable with a legitimate sidekick.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves
Fully on board with the Anthony Edwards hype train, the question is whether Karl-Anthony Towns willingly plays passenger.
14. Dallas Mavericks
Shortcomings are one thing. An established and worrisome track record of losing with the team’s two stars in the same lineup puts hard limits on the Mavs going any further.
–THE FINE LINE
If everything, or almost everything, breaks the right way these are teams with enough to jump up to the championship contender weight class.
13. New York Knicks
Villanova East, with Jalen Brunson at the controls, and Julius Randle is enough to warrant top-4 billing in the East. Injuries, or the Tom Thibodeau play-if-you-have-a-pulse factor, are the concern holding us back.
12. New Orleans Pelicans
Speaking of staying healthy … this story can’t change until Zion Williamson rewrites it.
11. Los Angeles Clippers
Ahem, about the availability thought: Paul George, Kawhi Leonard are no strangers to sitting.
10. Miami Heat
Jimmy Butler pulled a legendary playoff run and gets more help from Tyler Herro this time around. With the core trio — Bam Adebayo is No. 3 — driving, can they surprise the remodeled Bucks and Celtics once more?
9. Cleveland Cavaliers
Size, slashers and now shooters, the Cavs are a sneaky safe playoff pick haunted by last year’s no-show against the Knicks. An Eastern Conference finals appearance wouldn’t be a shocker.
8. Golden State Warriors
No team has more stock in over-30 stars than the Warriors, who swapped out Jordan Poole for 38-year-old Chris Paul. We soon find out if head coach Steve Kerr is the sagacious one, playing his chips on a big leap from Jonathan Kuminga and a rebound from Andrew Wiggins.
7. Los Angeles Lakers
Post-deadline the Lakers looked like a contender and crashed the Western Conference finals.
6. Sacramento Kings
Where would the Kings have gone with a healthy De’Aaron Fox in the 2023 postseason? We are about to find out.
5. Philadelphia 76ers
It’s less about James Harden and more about what the 76ers can secure in return.
–TROPHY SHELF
4. Milwaukee Bucks
Does new coach Adrian Griffin know something we don’t, or will one (Damian Lillard) minus one (Jrue Holiday) leave the Bucks exactly where they were last season?
3. Phoenix Suns
If the Suns win 50-plus games feels irrelevant given the likelihood of injuries leaving the team shorthanded at some point. What kind of team forms around Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal and whether they can all take the court in April are variables to ponder.
2. Boston Celtics
Adding Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday to Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum might just make Boston impossible to defend.
1. Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic’s MVP window is wide open, Jamal Murray could be a contender himself, and positive preseason signs from the likes of Christian Braun and Julian Strawther are all we needed to see to double down on Denver.
–Field Level Media