fbpx
Skip to main content

Pick 3: World Series player props

Sportsnaut
Oct 29, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Philadelphia Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto (10) hits a single during the eighth inning against the Houston Astros in game two of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

World Series Game 3 was postponed to Tuesday night, a delay that expanded the research window into relevant matchups and best odds for player props when the Houston Astros visit the Philadelphia Phillies.

For this exercise, we’re eschewing straight odds and money line picks for the best payouts.

Our MLB betting expert analyzes the best picks, prices and bonuses offered by sportsbooks on gameday.

–Astros RHP Lance McCullers 6+ Ks and Houston win (+270 at FanDuel)
McCullers is relatively fresh for a starting pitcher in November. He threw 47 2/3 innings in the regular season and has 13 strikeouts in 11 postseason innings. At 29, the theory that McCullers would be out of gas has no fuel here.

In a 3-0 loss to the Phillies on Oct. 3, McCullers whiffed five in six innings with one earned run allowed. But that appearance came after a long layoff — his previous start was Sept. 21, an eight-strikeout night in Tampa — and isn’t a true reflection of his late-season performance.

Over his past five starts, McCullers has six or more strikeouts five times with the anomaly standing as the Phillies’ game last month. Note his odds at multiple books for 5-plus strikeouts rate the prop as a virtual given at -200.

–Phillies win and catcher J.T. Realmuto over 1.5 total bases (+350 with Caesars Sportsbook)
Realmuto is 1-for-3 with a single and a strikeout in his career against Astros starter McCullers. He’s one of several Phillies in the middle of the order with a miniscule sample size to measure vs. McCullers.

Realmuto does have 13 hits and six walks in 13 playoff games this postseason and is 3-for-8 in the World Series with a double and home run you might’ve heard about.

Consider the risk assessment of other books. BetMGM has just +260 odds on Realmuto to have at least three total bases and +225 for him to post two hits.

As for the outright win, the Phillies are 5-0 at home in these playoffs.

Expect the Astros to pitch to Realmuto, considering Bryce Harper has a team-best .392 average in these playoffs with 11 extra-base hits and Kyle Schwarber is 1-for-2 in his career vs. McCullers with a home run.

–Astros 1B Yuri Gurriel 3-plus total bases (+310 at BetMGM)
Gurriel doesn’t strike out and faces a pitcher in Ranger Suarez who throws to contact.

He hasn’t whiffed in the playoffs in 38 at-bats and leads the Astros with a .342 average in the postseason.

Gurriel’s only walk in the playoffs is the 10th inning pass in Game 1 of the World Series. But while we now know he’s capable, he’s more likely to put the ball in play.

He had three total bases in that game and had a .740 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers in 2022.

–Field Level Media