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No. 7 Murray State flips to favorite over San Francisco

Feb 24, 2022; Murray, Kentucky, USA;  Murray State Racers guard Tevin Brown (10) against the Belmont Bruins during first half at CFSB Center. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports
Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

The writers’ and coaches’ polls might disagree, but when Murray State coach Matt McMahon takes a look at San Francisco, he sees a team that should be nationally ranked.

“Every analytic site that you look at,” he said, “it’s a no-brainer. That’s a Top 25 team.”

So are the Racers, who carry the No. 20 ranking into their Thursday night East Region matchup against the Dons in Indianapolis.

Murray State opened as a 1.5-point underdog at BetMGM but has moved to a 2.5-point favorite with one-sided action backing the Racers with 73 percent of the spread bets and 72 percent of the handle.

It is also the only first-round game at PointsBet to see a flip in the favored team. San Francisco opened at +2 at the sportsbook but was a 2.5-point underdog by Thursday with Murray State backed by 73 percent of the bets and 63 percent of the handle.

There was also a notable move in the moneyline markets at PointsBet. After opening at -125, the Racers shifted to +100 with 73 percent of the bets and 63 percent of the handle backing them. Meanwhile, the Dons moved from +105 to -130.

Seventh-seeded Murray State (30-2) hasn’t lost since a 71-58 defeat Dec. 22 at Auburn, which won the Southeastern Conference regular-season title and spent a fair chunk of conference play as the No. 1 team in the country. The Racers carry a 20-game winning streak into the NCAA Tournament.

Murray State did have to survive some close calls in the Ohio Valley Conference. Morehead State pushed the Racers to the limit twice, including a 71-67 nail-biter in the OVC tourney title game on March 5. Tennessee-Martin and Southeast Missouri State each delivered inspired efforts at home before taking two-point losses against the Racers.

Murray State has answered every challenge, thanks to the trio of KJ Williams, Tevin Brown and Justice Hill. Williams averages team highs of 18.2 points and 8.6 rebounds, and he poured in 39 in a Feb. 10 win at Tennessee State.

Brown adds 16.9 points per game and is a steady threat from 3-point range. He put up a team-high 23 in the OVC title game. Hill averages 13.2 ppg, more than double his production as a freshman last season, while dishing out five assists per contests.

There has been much talk of a potential Murray State-Kentucky matchup in the second round that would be the ultimate cause game for the Racers against the big state school. When a local reporter asked McMahon about that possibility, he quickly shut it down.

“It’s a one-game season for us,” he said.

That one game figures to be tough enough. Tenth-seeded San Francisco (24-9) earned a much-deserved at-large bid from the West Coast Conference even though it finished fourth behind Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara.

The Dons boast excellent guard play from Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz.

Bouyea averages 16.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and four assists per game, sinking 46.8 percent of his field-goal attempts. Shabazz puts up 14 ppg, and he pumped in 27 in an 81-71 loss against No. 1 Gonzaga on March 7 in the WCC semifinals. Over his past eight games, Shabazz is averaging 19.9 points, with five games of 21 points or more.

San Francisco will also regain the services of center Yauhen Massalski (13.5 ppg, 9.4 rebounds), who sat out the loss to Gonzaga with a knee injury sustained in a March 5 win over BYU. Massalski gives the Dons solid inside-outside balance.

This is the Dons’ first NCAA tourney appearance since 1998, and they are aiming for their first tournament victory since 1979, when Bill Cartwright was their star player. San Francisco won two national championships in the mid-1950s with teams led by Bill Russell and K.C. Jones.

Bouyea stated that the Dons aren’t just going to the NCAAs this year for novelty’s sake.

“We want to be in the tournament to win games,” he said. “I don’t think this is the end of our journey. Hopefully, we get to a Sweet 16 or something like that.”

–Field Level Media