Black Monday in the NFL comes immediately after Week 18, with fates often decided for many NFL coaches on the hot seat. We’ve already seen three NFL coaches fired this season and more firings are imminent in the hours and days following Week 18. With the final week of the regular season imminent, let’s dive into our predictions for which NFL coaches on the hot seat will be fired after Sunday.
Doug Pederson and Trent Baalke, Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson holds a 5-17 record since December 2023, the worst mark in the NFL. He also threw Jaguars players under the bus back when the team was 0-4 and it hasn’t gotten any better since. Hired to fix Trevor Lawrence, Pederson has failed to do so and general manager Trent Baalke has failed to build a roster capable of competing. Once the regular season ends, Pederson and Baalke will both be dismissed.
- Prediction: Fired
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Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys
It certainly seems absurd the Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones wouldn’t sign Mike McCarthy to a contract extension after three consecutive 12-win seasons and then give him a new deal immediately following a sub-.500 season. However, that seems to be the very situation Dallas created. McCarthy entered the year among the top NFL coaches on the hot seat and he delivered his second losing season since being hired. However, the team’s improved performance in the second half of the season has seemingly won over the support of the Jones family. McCarthy will get a new contract in 2025.
- Prediction: Signed to new contract
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Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans
First-year head coaches on rebuilding teams are rarely among the names of NFL coaches fired. However, Brian Callahan has shown very little for the Titans organization to feel good about in his first year at the helm. Will Levis regressed under the offensive-minded head coach and the Cincinnati Bengals offense got even better without its former offensive coordinator. However, it’s also a bad look for a franchise that everyone expected to finish near the bottom of the standings to fire their head coach for not winning enough. Callahan is back in 2025, but he’ll be on the hot seat.
- Prediction: Brought back with major staffing changes
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Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders
Antonio Pierce seemed like a near-lock to be among the NFL coaches fired after Week 18 but the Las Vegas Raiders then won two consecutive games. At the very least, the victories show the Raiders locker room is still fighting for him. However, Tom Brady is now a part of the Raiders ownership group and the franchise is already going to be in the quarterback market this offseason. Brady will certainly recognize there’s room to improve at head coach and the best thing an organization can do is have a quarterback and head coach brought in together.
- Prediction: Fired
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Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns fell well short of expectations in 2024 and Kevin Stefanski’s offense was a major disappointment. He also kept Deshaun Watson around as the starter far longer than he should’ve and there was never any reason to start Dorian Thompson-Robinson. However, Stefanski is a two-time Coach of the Year winner who has twice proven he can orchestrate a compete offense even with below-average quarterback play. Cleveland knows Stefanski would land another head-coaching gig days after he was fired, so there’s no sense in moving on from a good coach.
- Prediction: Stays
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Brian Daboll, New York Giants
There have been countless NFL rumors over the past week-plus regarding what direction the New York Giants will take. Cleaning house, firing head coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen, is the wisest option but it also appears to be the one option not likely to happen. Following the Week 17 win, there were even reports that both Daboll and Schoen could return in 2025. We highly doubt a head coach with consecutive seasons with 11-plus losses is retained. However, Schoen has seemingly earned back the trust of Giants ownership after the damage done by Hard Knocks and Saquon Barkley’s departure.
- Prediction: Brian Daboll fired, Joe Schoen stays
Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts
Shane Steichen wasn’t even considered to be one of the NFL coaches on the hot seat until the baffling Week 17 loss to the New York Giants. Now, reports are coming out about players showing up late to meetings and criticisms emerging regarding the Colts’ culture. However, if team owner Jim Irsay was willing to keep general manager Chris Ballard for an eighth season with just a 1-2 playoff record and a sub-.500 mark since 2017, it’s unfathomable to think he’d fire Steichen after two years. However, we do think Indianapolis will make two other big changes.
- Prediction: Shane Steichen remains, Chris Ballard and Gus Bradley fired
Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots
Robert Kraft never conducted a New England Patriots coaching search, he just immediately replaced Bill Belichick with Jerod Mayo. The 2024 NFL season has showcased the gravity of that mistake. Mayo has proven to be completely unprepared for the leadership elements of this job – using post-game press conferences to routinely deflect blame onto the shoulders of players and assistant coaches. He’s also called this team soft, seemingly lied to reports about benching Rhamondre Stevenson and the Patriots’ defense has been a bottom-10 unit under his watch. There’s just not a single aspect of this season that warrants Mayo being retained. We’re now increasingly confident Mayo will be fired, in part because the Patriots coaching vacancy might be the most attractive job in the NFL this winter.
- Prediction: Fired