The 2025 NASCAR season is underway with the countdown on until the green flag is waved at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Sunday’s Ambetter Health 400 is the second points race of the Cup Series season, covering 260 at the superspeedway race in Atlanta. Ahead of Sunday’s race, our NASCAR predictions will project the top-5 finishers, race winner and a few potential surprises at the Ambetter Health 400.
Kyle Larson finishes outside top 20 in Ambetter Health 400
A year ago, Kyle Larson finished 11th (Daytona 500) and 32nd-DNP (Ambetter Health 400) in his first two races of the season. The No. 5 car might be headed for another underwhelming start in the 2025 campaign. A week removed from a 20th-place finish at Daytona, Larson now heads to a track where he ranks 48th in average finish (29.8) at Atlanta Motor Speedway. He is also just one of six drivers (Noah Gragson, B.J. McLeod, Austin Dillon, Todd Gilliland and Chase Briscoe) with six races in Atlanta since 2022 without a top-10 finish. Larson might finish Sunday’s race, which would be just the second time in seven tries, but some damage in a small crash will keep him well outside the top 20.
Related: NASCAR standings
Daniel Suarez snags another top-5 finish in Atlanta with a stage win
Daniel Suarez emerged victorious in a photo finish at Atlanta Motor Speedway last season. How he’s back at the track that got him into the Cup Series playoff with hopes of repeating history. Atlanta’s superspeedway has proven particularly favorable to Suarez as of late – second in the Quaker State 400 (2023-’24) – which again bodes well for Sunday. While we won’t predict another back-to-back champion, which happened last week, Suarez will snag a top-5 finish with a stage win.
Noah Gragson crashes out of the Ambetter Health 400
Noah Gragson (four) and Kyle Larson (five) have the most DNFs at Atlanta Motor Speedway, but Gragson has never led a lap here. He wrecked out twice in Atlanta last season and since he’ll likely spend most of Sunday in the middle of the pack, that only increases his chances of getting taken out in a wreck. Gragson’s day will once again end prematurely in the Ambetter Health 400, resulting in the No. 4 car falling even further behind in the points standings.
Related: NASCAR standings
Top 5: Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Austin Cindric, Daniel Suarez, Kyle Busch
Joey Logano had the fastest car in Atlanta (43 laps led) before some overaggressiveness helped cause his crash in the final laps of the 500. That wreck also took out Kyle Busch, who had a strong chance at a top-5 finish. Both drivers will rebound in this one, navigating multiple big wrecks on Sunday, with each of them picking up their third top-5 finish at AMS. It’s also going to be a great Sunday for Austin Cindric, who has finished no worse than 12th at Atlanta in his last five races including double-digit stage points in three of the last four. Cindric, Logano and Ryan Blaney will come out of the Ambetter Health 400 with the most points gained.
Related: The inconsequential stupidity of NASCAR’s Daytona 500 right now
Ryan Blaney wins the Ambetter Health 400
Logano and Ryan Blaney were arguably the two best drivers on Sunday, but wrecks prevented both from coming out on top. One week later, Blaney gets his first win of the year at the track he’s dominated. The No. 12 car has finished in the top 10 at Atlanta Motor Speedway in five of his last six races while leading the Cup Series in average finish (7.2) and average starting position (3.5) since 2022. This time avoiding messes caused by those around him, Blaney will be celebrating in victory lane on Sunday with his first victory at Atlanta Motor Speedway since the QuiKTrip 500 in 2021.