Duncan Robinson is one of the best shooters in the NBA, but as he enters free agency this offseason, the question of whether Miami keeps the 26-year-old shooter is a big one. Last season, Robinson had one of the best shooting seasons of all-time and has shown it was not a fluke.
However, the further we get into the season with Miami sitting below .500, the prospect of Robinson returning looks more unlikely at each passing day. If they do not want to be put into a tough position with Robinson, they need to start winning and turn their season around quickly.
Here is why Duncan Robinson’s next contract may be too pricey for Miami and if they do trade him, what can they get in return?
Duncan Robinson may be worth too much money for Miami
I want to make it clear that I do not want Duncan Robinson to be traded or leave the Miami Heat. I love how he plays the game and wish he could spend the entirety of his career with the team. However, I am also realistic in the fact that the Heat may have to face the reality of this offseason.
NBA officials expect Robinson to receive a contract that pays $15-20 million annually. The Heat already have Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo on max-contract deals, which is an important factor when it comes to Robinson remaining with Miami past this season. But, do the Heat believe Robinson can be that third or fourth guy?
Robinson is one of the best shooters in the NBA, but teams have started to defend him differently now that the jury is out on the abilities. There have also been times during the game where he has seemingly disappeared on offense when they needed him to provide a spark to a stagnant team.
Miami needs to weigh the pros and cons of trading Robinson at the deadline, whether they are in contention to win a championship or not. With other players available this offseason such as DeMar DeRozan and Victor Oladipo, they may prioritize a two-way player, rather than an offensive or defensive specialist.
What could the Miami Heat get for Duncan Robinson in a trade?
The Miami Heat could go about a Duncan Robinson trade in many different ways. They could go the traditional route of trading him to another team for a first-round pick or include him in a three-way deal that would send a first-round draft pick to the team sending Miami a good player.
As I talked about in this Miami Heat trade scenarios article, Robinson could be a major key in completing a trade for someone like Oladipo, who still eyes the Miami Heat as his end destination. They could also include him in a deal for a good power forward to fill that hole at the four.
In any trade, Robinson should net a first-round pick due to his shooting abilities alone, even though he is an impeding free-agent. It would be difficult for Heat fans to watch Robinson contend on another team, but the benefits of trading him could go in either direction.
One scenario nets the Miami Heat a first-round pick of their own, which would be important since their current first-round pick will end up with either the Houston Rockets or Oklahoma City Thunder. The other includes that pick being moved for a good player. Either way is a win-win for the Heat.
One topic that many fans have discussed is whether they would move Tyler Herro or Duncan Robinson in a trade. Personally, I would move Herro because I don’t envision him being an all-star, while Robinson does one thing really, really well and that’s shooting the ball.
Herro has struggled shooting and his shot selection has been poor. He’s not a bad player, but Spoelstra is trying to have him handle way too much responsibility on offense and his defense isn’t up to par with Robinson’s defense. The Heat love Herro, which makes it realistic from the standpoint of Robinson being the one on the move.
Hopefully, the Heat will turn their season around, but whatever does happen for them, Duncan Robinson most likely needs to be on the move. Even if some people will not agree with the move.