The Miami Dolphins and the Kansas City Chiefs meet for the second time this season Saturday night, but this time it’ll be in the AFC wild-card round in what is expected to be among the coldest games in NFL history.
The game-time forecast calls for the temperature at Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium to dip below zero, with wind chill dropping to the minus-20 to minus-30 range.
The last time the two teams played was in Week 9, when the Chiefs defeated the Dolphins, 21-14 in Frankfurt, Germany. Since then, the Dolphins (11-6) have gone 5-3, but two of the losses came over the past two weeks against Baltimore and Buffalo, dropping them to the No. 6 seed. Meanwhile, the No. 3 Chiefs (11-6) have struggled to a 4-4 mark over the same stretch.
Given the weather, the location, the injury status of both teams and more, here are four bold projections for the Miami Dolphins-Kansas City Chiefs game, which will be the first NFL playoff game ever streamed exclusively on Peacock.
Related: The 5 most bone-chilling, coldest games ever in NFL history
Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa will throw for less than 170 yards
The Miami Dolphins quarterback admitted he’s never been exposed to weather under 15 degrees. In addition, the Dolphins are winless over their past 10 games in sub-40-degree weather. Tagovailoa, who leads the NFL in passing yards, has been held under 200 yards passing on only two occasions — last Sunday against Buffalo (173) and in the last meeting with the Chiefs (193).
Kansas City has the NFL’s No. 2 ranked defense, and will make life miserable for Tagovailoa, who might not have one of his best weapons (Jaylen Waddle). The combination of the weather, the location, the Chiefs’ D and Waddle’s status will lead to Tagovailoa having his worst passing day of the season.
Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce will connect for two TDs
The Chiefs’ offense has been a weakness rather than a strength this season, with their points-per-game number dropping from first in the NFL a year ago (29.2) to 15th (21.8). A big reason for the decline has been the poor play from a receiving corps that leads the NFL in dropped passes.
Nevertheless, Mahomes should have a big day against an injury-depleted defense that has lost three of its best pass rushers for the season — Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, and Andrew Van Ginkel — and won’t have cornerback Xavien Howard and maybe both starting safeties, DeShon Elliott and Jevon Holland, who are questionable.
Mahomes should find plenty of time to find his favorite and most reliable target (tight enc Travis Kelce), and together they should tear up the Miami defense.
Related: Why the injury-plagued Miami Dolphins are doomed against the Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill will produce one explosive play
If anyone on the Miami Dolphins is accustomed to the frigid weather conditions, it’s Hill, who played his first six seasons in Kansas City. While he is the NFL leader in receiving yards and touchdowns, an ankle injury has limited his effectiveness; he’s only scored one touchdown over the past six weeks.
In the first meeting against his former team, he caught eight balls for 62 yards and no touchdowns. But this time he will break loose for one of his trademark catch-and-run touchdowns on the frozen Arrowhead Stadium.
With one highlight-reel play, Hill will show what the Chiefs have been missing since he signed with Miami, but otherwise, it won’t be enough to save the Dolphins.
Chris Jones will register two sacks
Jones is a game-wrecker at defensive tackle for the Chiefs, who are second in the NFL in sacks with 57. Jones has notched 10.5 sacks to tie for the team lead with George Karlaftis and is first in tackles for loss with 13.
Jones is at his destructive best he’s collapsing the pocket, and he should find himself spending a lot in the Miami Dolphins backfield, causing problems for Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins’ passing attack. Tagovailoa is among the most difficult quarterbacks to sack, but Jones will find his way to the Dolphins’ quarterback on at least two occasions.
PREDICTION: Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10