We can all see that the Las Vegas Raiders offense reaches optimal levels when running back Josh Jacobs gets going on the ground early and touches the ball often through 60 minutes.
In each of the last three weeks, Jacobs has registered at least 20 carries and 143 rushing yards with six total touchdowns in that span. He’s third across the league in total rushing yards. Last week, the fourth-year ball-carrier became the first player in Raiders history to run for at least 100 yards and a touchdown in three consecutive games (h/t ESPN’s Paul Gutierrez).
As Jacobs ran through Houston Texans defenders in Week 7, a lot of fans started wondering if the Raiders made a mistake in declining his fifth-year option and should the team sign him to an extension in the middle of the season.
- Josh Jacobs stats: 774 scrimmage yards, 5.7 yards per carry, six total touchdowns
Right now, the answer to both questions is no.
First and foremost, the front office’s decision not to exercise Jacobs’ fifth-year option isn’t a sign that the club plans to move on from him, but it gives team brass financial flexibility in 2023.
Instead of locking themselves into an $8 million commitment with Jacobs, the Raiders can reassess his worth to the team at the end of the 2022 campaign and gauge his value on the open market. Running backs Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, David Montgomery and Tony Pollard are set to become free agents next year. If they hit the open market, Jacobs will have competition for a big-money contract at his position.
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Keep in mind that Barkley leads the league in yards from scrimmage and ranks second in rushing yards going into Week 8. Sanders is on pace for a career year, averaging 80.8 rushing yards per game. Montgomery and Pollard have become two of the better pass-catching running backs in the league.
Secondly, general manager Dave Ziegler had no reason to rush into a multi-year commitment with Jacobs and that still holds true at the end of October.
In the past, Jacobs had issues with durability, and he came off his worst statistical season in terms of rushing yards (872) last year. No one should blame Ziegler for wanting to see how the physical ball-carrier would fare in a contract term.
Every week, players go down with injuries. Running backs take and absorb a lot of hits. Why not wait to see if Jacobs makes it through the season relatively healthy before tossing a big bag of money at him?
As of today, the Raiders don’t need to meet any deadlines to pay Jacobs. Barring an improbable trade, he’s under contract for 2022 with the Silver and Black and cannot go anywhere until the offseason anyway.
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Oftentimes, general managers will wait until 24-48 hours before the NFL’s legal tampering period in March to re-sign a valuable player.
Why is that?
Because they’ve had time to reassess roster needs and think about the short-term direction of the team. At 2-4, in October, the Raiders don’t have a concrete idea of what they’ll need in free agency.
Remember, a club’s win-loss record factors into the construction or reformation of a roster. A 6-11 team isn’t going to approach the offseason in the same way as a 12-5 squad that’s in a Super Bowl window.
With so many unknown variables, the Raiders shouldn’t lock themselves into deals with players at non-premium positions.
Sure, they extended Darren Waller, who plays a non-premium position, but how has that worked out so far? Waller has been hampered by injuries, and he has just 16 catches for 175 yards and a touchdown.
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Point being, so many unfavorable things can happen between now and the end of the season. What if Jacobs gets hurt or his production tapers off later in the year? While teams hope for the best, general managers prefer flexibility in case something goes awry.
If Vegas goes 6-11, Ziegler will likely have more important positions to address than the running back spot.
On the flip side, let’s say the Raiders finish 10-7, win playoff games, and Jacobs had a big part in the team’s success. Ziegler would likely try to extend him before the new league year but also keep a number in mind to allow investments in other areas (i.e the offensive line, cornerback or linebacker groups).
Evaluating Josh Jacobs’ contract value
He could earn top-five running back money, which would slot him above Tennessee Titans tailback Derrick Henry whose contract averages $12.5 million per year.
Ziegler would have to consider the financial implications though. Does he want to pay north of $12 million for a running back if he’s eyeing a high-priced free-agent cornerback and/or right tackle?
General managers cannot just sign or extend good players—their job isn’t that easy. They have to balance a checkbook and make sure the financial ramifications don’t prevent them from spending on major areas of need.
Lastly, the Raiders selected Zamir White and Brittain Brown in the fourth round and the seventh rounds of the 2022 draft, respectively. They didn’t do that by accident. The rookie running backs will make less than $2 million combined in 2023. If the team thinks they can provide 85-90 percent of what Jacobs did at a fraction of his projected salary on a new contract, expect a shift in the backfield next year.
Sometimes, we get caught up in a player’s production, but general managers tend to look at value. In other words, what’s the best bang for their buck, and how can they spread money to address multiple positions during the offseason?
While the Raiders will probably open dialogue with Jacobs’ representation in the offseason if he continues to produce at his current rate, it takes two to tango, and the numbers have to fit into the team’s budget.
Most fans want to see Jacobs with the Silver and Black for the long term, but what does he want on a new deal? What’s Ziegler willing to spend on a running back with a couple of rookies on fresh legs at the position already on the roster?
Neither party has to answer those questions until the offseason. As the 2022 campaign plays out, we should have more clarity as to what’s best for both sides.
Related: If you’re a fan of the Raiders, check out #RaiderNation rumors, rankings, and news here.
Maurice Moton covers the Las Vegas Raiders for Sportsnaut. You can follow him on Twitter at @MoeMoton.