Journalism is a sizable favorite at the 2025 Kentucky Derby. However, a racing insider has revealed two horses that could score an upset with conditions at Churchill Downs less than optimal.
We are just a few hours away from the start of this year’s edition of the Kentucky Derby. Heading into “The Run For the Roses,” Michael W. McCarthy-trained Colt Journalism is the popular choice to win. However, bettors are looking for horses that could score an upset this weekend. Well, with the track expected to be very wet and muddy on Saturday, ESPN reporter Marty Smith revealed a name that could surprise at the Derby.
Related: Final ranking of all the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses on race day
“It’s going to benefit front-runners,” Smith said about the poor condition on a Saturday morning edition of “SportsCenter.” “I spoke with two-time Kentucky Derby champion trainer Todd Pletcher earlier today, and he explained to me that horses who are front-runners, who have speed early and get out early, have an advantage in these types of conditions.
“They’re kicking up that mud and debris that’s hitting jockeys and horses behind them directly in the face at 40 miles per hour. One of those horses that’s a front-runner is Bob Baffert’s Citizen Bull. Starting in the one post.”
However, Smith also mentioned that no horse has won the Derby from the one post since Ferdinand in 1986. Nevertheless, his trainer has won at this event a record six times. That only adds to Citizen Bull’s threat to win Saturday’s race.
However, Smith threw out one more name that could make Journalism work hard to reach the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle. “One other thing that Pletcher told me is that Journalism and Sovereignty have looked absolutely fantastic on the backside.”
Sovereignty has the second-best odds (5-1) heading into today’s race. Thirteen of the 19 horses competing in the 151st edition of the Derby have never raced on a wet track.
Related: 2025 Kentucky Derby – Everything you need for the May 3 race, including final betting odds