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Holiday Bowl: Oregon-North Carolina Preview, Props & Prediction

Oct 8, 2022; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) against the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

In an era in which the stars of the show routinely opt out of bowl games, No. 15 Oregon and North Carolina follow their leading men into the Holiday Bowl on Wednesday in San Diego.

Ducks quarterback Bo Nix is returning for the 2023 season and Tar Heels phenom Drake Maye is also playing in the game that is being held at baseball venue Petco Park for the first time.

Nix was a big hit after transferring from Auburn and completed a Pac-12-leading 71.5 percent of his passes for 3,388 yards, 27 touchdowns and six interceptions.

The Ducks (9-3) are looking to rebound from a demoralizing 38-34 loss to Oregon State. The Tar Heels (9-4) also feel the urgency after being whipped 39-10 by Clemson in the ACC title game.

“Honestly, North Carolina had kind of a similar end of the season, if you really look at it,” Oregon center Alex Forsyth said. “We both are gonna have a bad taste in our mouth, and look to get that bad taste out.”

This will be the first Holiday Bowl since 2019. The 2020 game was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic and last year’s game between North Carolina State and UCLA at Petco Park was canceled due to COVID-19 issues in the Bruins’ program.

The former host stadium, best known as Jack Murphy Stadium or Qualcomm Stadium, was demolished during 2020 and 2021.

DUCK, DUCK, DOMINATE?
Despite losing two of their past three games, the Ducks are a near two-touchdown favorite.

The line opened at 10.5 points at BetMGM but shifted to 13, with North Carolina now having the edge with 53 percent of the spread-line bets and 51 percent of the money backing the Tar Heels.

The action has been split on the 13.5-point line at DraftKings, where the Tar Heels have drawn 56 percent of the bets while the Ducks have been backed by 53 percent of the spread-line money.

PROP PICK
Over 76 Total Points (-110): The Ducks average a robust 39.7 points per game while the Tar Heel average 35. The market continued to shift at BetMGM and DraftKings before settling at 76 on Wednesday. The total opened at 73.5 at BetMGM but continued to rise with 51 percent of the money backing the Over.

QBs MINUS SOME STARS
Nix found no difficulty in staying with the Ducks instead of leaving for the NFL.

“That was kind of easy for me,” Nix said. “I just really enjoy playing football, I enjoy playing for Oregon and I enjoy playing for Coach (Dan) Lanning. So any time I have that opportunity, I’m going to make the most of it.”

Maye, the ACC Player of the Year, faced different issues as coach Mack Brown revealed other colleges were tampering with his star who passed for 4,155 yards, 35 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season.

“It’s 100-percent tampering,” Brown said of schools trying to influence Maye to enter the transfer portal. “He decided to stay and he could’ve very well left. Most people would’ve left.”

When pressed, Brown declined to say which schools were offering million-dollar name, image, likeness packages to Maye.

“I can’t say that and don’t ask Drake,” Brown said. “You know who they are. Just look at all the ones who are getting all the top recruits.”

Maye added 653 yards and seven scores on the ground for the Tar Heels (9-4). Nix rushed for 504 yards and 14 touchdowns.

The Tar Heels, who have dropped three straight games, won’t have star wideout Josh Downs, who recently declared for the NFL Draft. Downs caught 94 passes for 1,029 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Linebacker Cedric Gray (137 tackles) announced he is returning to North Carolina for the 2023 season.

Oregon lost three key defenders leading up to the bowl — cornerback Christian Gonzalez (four interceptions), linebacker Noah Sewell (56 tackles) and defensive end DJ Johnson (six sacks).

PREDICTION
Bowl games have become increasingly difficult to peg with so many players opting-out. What we do expect is a high-scoring affair. The Ducks have deeper talent on both sides of the ball, the question will be whether or not they can cover that huge spread. –Oregon 41, North Carolina 35

–Field Level Media