Formula 1 arrives in Monaco this weekend for the sport’s most famous race, the Monaco Grand Prix, held on the iconic Circuit de Monaco.
This street circuit is a unique challenge for the drivers and teams that manage them. It is the slowest and shortest on the calendar, known for its narrow layout and difficulty in overtaking. This makes Saturday’s qualifying session massively important.
Fresh off Max Verstappen’s surprise win at the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix, the championship battle intensifies as McLaren drivers Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris look to extend their lead and claim the team’s first Monaco victory since 2008. Monte Carlo is set for another potentially dramatic weekend with a new mandatory two-stop rule aiming to shake up strategy and the ever-present risk of safety cars.
Here’s our Sportsnaut principality podium prediction!
Read More: Monaco’s New Two-Stop Rule: Shaking up F1’s crown jewel
2025 Monaco Grand Prix Winner: Oscar Piastri | McLaren
Piastri heads into Monaco leading the Drivers’ Championship by 13 points over teammate Lando Norris. McLaren has been the dominant force this season with five wins in seven races, and the circuit characteristics here, particularly the slow-speed corners, are expected to favor the McLaren car more than its rivals. Piastri has been in elite form, already securing three poles and four wins this year. He was the runner-up in Monaco last season, starting from the front row alongside Charles Leclerc. Given the supreme importance of qualifying in Monaco, Piastri’s knack for pole positions this season makes him a strong contender, further reinforced by betting odds listing him as the favorite. FanDuel’s simulations also put his win probability at 40.1%.
Read More: F1 Power Rankings 2025: Top 10 entering Monaco Grand Prix
P2: Lando Norris | McLaren
Lando Norris sits second in the championship and has shown remarkable consistency this season, being one of only two drivers to have finished every race inside the top six. While Piastri might have a slight edge in the betting odds, McLaren’s overall pace suggests a one-two finish is highly probable. Norris himself has the grid’s best finishing average at 2.29. The new McLaren car setup, while sometimes favouring Piastri, means Norris still has a chance to close the gap, especially at a track where raw ability can shine.
Betting odds place Norris firmly in contention for a podium finish and as the second favorite for the win. His consistent performance makes him a safe bet for a top result if the McLaren pace translates to the Monte Carlo streets.
P3: Charles Leclerc | Ferrari
The hometown hero, Charles Leclerc, returns to the Monaco Grand Prix having finally broken his curse here last year with an emotional victory. Despite Ferrari’s disappointing campaign this year, with only one podium so far (Leclerc P3 in Saudi Arabia), Leclerc has a strong history in Monaco qualifying, taking pole in three of the last four years.
While Leclerc admits the Ferrari SF-25 struggles in slow-speed corners, which comprise most of the Monaco track, his teammate Lewis Hamilton still believes Leclerc can perform well again. Leclerc overcame an early crash in FP1 to top the session, showing his ability to rebound. If he can hook up a qualifying lap as he has done previously, his position on the grid could allow him to fight for a podium despite the car’s weaknesses. Betting odds favour Leclerc for a podium finish (3.45 or 11/8), making this a realistic, albeit hopeful, pick for the home crowd.
Could Contend at Monaco Grand Prix: Verstappen & Russell
While McLaren appears to be the team to beat, Max Verstappen cannot be counted out at the Monaco Grand Prix. The two-time Monaco winner showed at Imola that he can still win even when Red Bull might not have the outright pace advantage. If Verstappen can nail qualifying, he is always a threat. George Russell has been Mercedes’ consistent performer, securing four podiums this season and generally finishing inside the top five. Mercedes isn’t bringing upgrades, which could give him the edge needed to challenge for a podium spot if the cars ahead falter. Some have predicted Kimi Antonelli for a surprise podium, but after reliability issues at Imola and facing his first F1 race here, it remains a long shot despite his potential.
It’s shaping up to be a fascinating Monaco Grand Prix. While qualifying is paramount, the new two-stop rule adds an element of uncertainty to the race strategy. Whether it truly injects chaos or merely changes the timing of slow laps through the pit lane remains to be seen. With the championship battle tight and the unique challenge of Monte Carlo, expect a weekend filled with precision, tension, and hopefully, some memorable moments.
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