As Formula 1 arrives at the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya for the final race of the triple header, predictions of the result are all over the board. Following Lando Norris’s victory in Monaco, attention turns to whether McLaren can maintain their momentum or if another team will rise to the occasion. With Red Bull’s Max Verstappen remaining a threat and his history in Spain makes him a strong candidate to win the Spanish Grand Prix.
Here’s our look at potential podium finishers and a key contender for the Spanish Grand Prix:
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P1 Spanish Grand Prix: Max Verstappen | Red Bull
While Oscar Piastri is listed as the betting favorite for the win, Max Verstappen has a strong history at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, with the track being the site of his debut F1 win in 2016. More recently, he has won the last three Spanish Grands Prix from 2022 to 2024. Verstappen and Red Bull have made good progress with tire management, a characteristic expected to carry over to Barcelona, which is considered a broadly similar circuit to Imola. This could position Verstappen for another masterclass. Also of note: Verstappen has finished on the podium in every other race for the last 14 races. After not being on the podium in Monaco, the trend suggests a podium finish in Spain. With the circuit in Madrid fast, it fits Verstappen’s style. The historical dominance of Verstappen and Red Bull at this circuit in recent years, combined with expected performance carry-over from Imola, makes Verstappen a strong candidate for the win.
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P2 Finisher: Oscar Piastri | McLaren
Although Oscar Piastri had to settle for P3 in Monaco while his teammate Norris took victory, he remains the championship leader by just three points. Piastri is tipped as the most likely winner of the Spanish GP in many of the betting odds, and is also the favorite for securing pole position. While everyone seems to be hot on Norris in this race, Oscar Piastri needs a good performance to keep his edge in the overall driver championship race. Expect him to show his moxy during qualifying and exert himself to keep this race for the driver title close.
P3 Finisher: Lando Norris | McLaren
Lando Norris is hot on Piastri’s tail and he seems to be the popular favorite to win. Fresh off his victory in Monaco, Norris will leverage his big win in Monte Carlo with the sense that his confidence continues to grow. Like Monaco, winning pole position at the Spanish Grand Prix is paramount: 23 of the last 34 races have been won by the driver who took pole and Norris is considered the favorite to do so. The McLaren team is heavily favored to win the race, indicating that a strong performance is expected from both Norris and Piastri. While some suggest McLaren might be at risk from the new technical directive on flexi-wings, some predictions indicate this TD may not have a significant impact on the pecking order. Given his recent win and strong position in the odds, Norris is a solid choice for a podium spot.
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Contender Prediction: Charles Leclerc | Ferrari
After a successful Monaco Grand Prix, Charles Leclerc recognizes that Ferrari needs to change their expectations for the Spanish Grand Prix completely. The conventional Barcelona circuit will present a completely different and much more demanding racing experience compared to the Monaco track.. The SF-25’s strengths in Monaco’s slow corners and bump handling will not translate to Barcelona, so Leclerc understands it will be a more challenging weekend. Despite this, Charles Leclerc’s recent success and technical changes, including a new front wing, should help against Red Bull and McLaren. The latest technical regulations offer a possible way to reduce the gap with the leaders. Ferrari and Leclerc know they are a long way back, but we’re betting here that the hot hand continues keeping Charles Leclerc in contention in Spain.
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