The Indianapolis Colts are heading down I-74 with their four-game win streak to take on the Cincinnati Bengals. This week’s matchup will feature two playoff-hopeful teams and the outcome will have major playoff implications. Currently, the horseshoe is the sixth seed with Cincinnati sitting outside the playoffs.
Both teams are coming off impressive wins if not for different reasons. The Colts are coming off an overtime thriller that saw them block two punts (even if one was later ruled a fumble). Meanwhile, Cincinnati got an incredible performance from their backup quarterback Jake Browning in their game against Jacksonville. He completed 32 of 37 passes for 354 yards and one touchdown while rushing twice for 22 yards and another score.
Now, these two playoff-contending teams will face off against each other, with the winner owning the tie-breaker. Both of these teams are most likely looking at a wild card spot. However, the Colts have an outside shot at the AFC South title with the recent loss by Jacksonville and the injury to their quarterback.
Here are four bold predictions for the Colts vs. Bengals matchup.
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Jake Browning passes for under 200 yards with zero touchdowns and two turnovers
The undrafted quarterback out of Washington put on a show in his start against Jacksonville. Considering Cincinnati lost their franchise quarterback to a hand injury, Browning’s performance last week was a welcomed one. It was surprising, to say the least.
This week though the Colts won’t take him for granted. There is now more NFL film on Browning and the team might be getting a healthy JuJu Brents back as well. Even if Brents isn’t healthy enough to return, this secondary has been getting better as the season progresses. Since Week 5 they have allowed over 250 yards passing just once and they’ve held opponents to under 200 yards passing five times. Browning will be the next quarterback to fall victim to this passing defense.
Related: Where does Jake Browning rank among 2023’s starting QBs?
Trey Hendrickson records four sacks
Trey Hendrickson is tied for sixth in the NFL with 11.5 sacks on the season. The two-time Pro-Bowler is on pace to record the most sacks of his career in a season. The Colts offensive line has been better than they were last season. But this week, Hendrickson causes problems for the passing offense.Â
The offensive line for the Colts has struggled when they’ve gone against some of the better pass rushers in the league. On the season, they’ve given up 27 sacks, and in the games against Josh Allen (twice), Justin Madubuike, and Myles Garrett, they’re allowing an average of at least four sacks per game. This week, Hendrickson wreaks some havoc and brings down Gardner Minshew four times.
Related: 2023 NFL Power Rankings: Evaluating all 32 teams after Week 13
Grover Stewart helps run defense hold Cincinnati under 60 yards rushing
It’s been no secret that a major weakness of the Colts’ defense was their run defense over the past six weeks. During that stretch, they were allowing opponents to rush for an average of 153 yards per game. This is opposed to the first games, where they were allowing an average of 113.5 yards per game.
The difference was the loss of Grover Stewart to a six-game PED suspension. That suspension is now over and Stewart is back to clog the running lanes. It will help that Cincinnati is the worst rushing team in the NFL. They’re averaging 82.5 yards rushing per game, Las Vegas is only slightly better at 82.7 yards. This week, the Colts’ big run-stuffing defensive tackle shows everyone exactly why he’s a valuable piece to the defense. He helps hold Cincinnati’s rushing attack to under 60 yards rushing yards for the fourth time this season.Â
Rookie tight end Will Mallory has a touchdown gameÂ
One piece of the offense that has been inconsistent all season has been the Colts tight ends. And really, it’s been the threat of a consistent, reliable third receiver. The team is set with Michael Pittman Jr and rookie Josh Downs as their top two receivers. But the passing offense could use a consistent third option, whether it’s a tight end or another wide receiver.
Cincinnati has been one of the worst when it comes to covering opposing tight ends. They rank 29th in targets, 31st in catches, 32nd in yards, and 25th in touchdowns. And considering the Colts’ leading tight end in yards is Kylen Granson with 247, anyone from this position group could have a big Sunday.
Every one of the tight ends for the Colts has at least one touchdown on the season, except for rookie Will Mallory. He’s third in the group with a 53.3% catch percentage and facing off against a defense that is poor against the tight end, Mallory finds his first two NFL scores.
