Big bets back Tom Brady claiming fourth NFL MVP award

Tom Brady knee injury
Aug 21, 2021; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) looks on before a game against the Tennessee Titans at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Tom Brady has built his legend around defying the odds, and some deep-pocketed bettors are banking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback having at least one more epic ride up his sleeve.

Brady isn’t the favorite to win his fourth Most Valuable Player award this season, but he is the most heavily backed player at BetMGM. A $5,000 bet to win $70,000 at +1400 has contributed to Brady being backed by 32.5 percent of the money at the sportsbook, more than double that of MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes (14.9 percent of the money at +600).

The large wagers have skewed the money towards Brady, who has only been backed by 4.2 percent of the total MVP bets as his odds have shortened since starting at +1600.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+1400) has a clear lead with 17.2 percent of the total MVP bets placed at BetMGM. That’s well ahead of Kansas City’s Mahomes with 9.5 percent and new Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (+2000) with 8.4 percent.

The most significant line movement belongs to San Francisco 49ers rookie Trey Lance. He opened as a +30000 longshot to win MVP honors but is now +10000 as Lance tries to win the starting job away from Jimmy Garoppolo.

That effort hit a speed bump with 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan announcing Monday that Lance will miss about a week with a small “chip” in his finger.

Lance has been backed by 4.3 percent of the money and 4.4 percent of the MVP bets at BetMGM, making him the book’s biggest liability in the MVP market ahead of Allen and Brady.

Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers has the second-shortest odds at +1100. The Green Bay Packers star has been backed by a modest 3.0 percent of the MVP bets and 1.2 percent of the money.

The most bets placed on a non-quarterback to win MVP has been for Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry, who has been backed by 3.5 percent of the bets and 1.5 percent of the money.

–Field Level Media