He is arguably the biggest name on the free-agent market this season—the biggest star on the defensive side, anyway. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh has been a game-wrecker since the moment he stepped onto an NFL field. And despite the controversial way he plays the game, he is about to be a very rich man.
In his five years with the Detroit Lions, Suh racked up more sacks (36) than any other defensive tackle in the league, and he missed a tackle in run defense just four times out of 135 attempts, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
That’s an impeccable three percent missed-tackle rate.
This table charts the top five defensive tackles in terms of total sacks over the past five years in an experimental stat called Positive Play Percent. We take stats gathered from PFF and combine them to get an idea of how productive a defensive player (predominantly a member of the front seven) is when doing the two things he does most—rush the passer and defend the run.
Suh is expected to sign a deal that would at the very least match the $95.2 million given to Gerald McCoy by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season. Who will fork over that kind of coin?
These five teams have the bankroll and, in most cases, the need to do so.
Detroit Lions
Quotable: “I think it’s important for you guys to know that we want him back and we are willing to franchise him, transition him, whatever.” —Lions general manager Martin Mayhew on Suh, as told to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press.
Birkett mentioned it in the linked column, so it’s also important to note that hitting Suh with the franchise tag would cost Detroit $36.6 million toward its 2015 salary cap due to what would be a $26.9 million fully guaranteed salary plus $9.7 million of “dead money” the team owes him.
Tagging Suh while the two sides work out a long-term contract makes sense. With a current estimate of about $15.2 million in cap space, the Lions cannot afford Suh if he plays on a franchise tag agreement. But it also makes sense for the fact that, depending on which tag they use, the Lions would be compensated for losing him to free agency should another team sign him.
Oakland Raiders
With an estimated $49.5 million, the Raiders have the second-most cap space in the NFL, behind only the Jacksonville Jaguars’ estimated $60.8 million. If Suh is going to follow the money, he would also be wise to choose a franchise that either can contend in 2015 or appears to be on the verge of contention in the next handful of seasons.
The Raiders fall into the latter category. They are a few pieces away from being a playoff contender for the first time in a decade and a half, and Suh would be a major selling point for other free agents pondering a move to the Bay Area.
The Raiders finished eighth in run defense last season, allowing 4.0 yards per carry. Suh would only make them better in that area while giving them a pass-rushing presence on the inside not seen in Oakland since Warren Sapp finished with 19.5 sacks in his final four seasons in a Hall of Fame career.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts could be major players in the Suh sweepstakes for three reasons: They already own the AFC South, they’re a run defense away from being legitimate Super Bowl contenders and, most importantly, they can afford to overpay for him ($35.6 million in cap space).
Indianapolis runs a 3-4 defense these days, so Suh would likely play the J.J. Watt-type role at 3-tech defensive end. But he’s also powerful enough to play nose tackle and simply ruin the interior offensive line and any semblance of a run game any opponent wished it had.
Finishing 23rd in run defense last season, the Colts watched two different running backs from the New England Patriots demolish them. First, Jonas Gray sprinted to a 201-yard, four-touchdown performance during a Week 11 beat-down; then, LeGarrette Blount put Indy away in the AFC Championship game by carrying 30 times for 148 yards (4.9 yards per carry) and three touchdowns.
That would not happen if Suh were plugging up running lanes.
You’d think quarterback Andrew Luck will receive a contract extension at some point this calendar year. He’s owed just over $7 million in 2015, so getting that out of the way before free-agency begins could be a good idea if for nothing else but the potential of freeing up a few extra million bucks. Luck could defer most of his 2015 salary to a signing bonus that would be spread out over the next several years—this would be similar to the deal Peyton Manning signed in 2004 that helped the Colts retain some key free agents.
Anything to help lure Suh to Indy is a good idea.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
On paper, the Buccaneers should have been a good team in 2014. A solid rushing attack with Doug Martin, two towers on the outside in receivers Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans and a defense that totaled six Pro Bowls and three All-Pro selections in their respective careers.
But that was not the case, as Tampa finished 2-14 and now owns the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL draft.
The Bucs already have one of the better defensive tackles in the game. We discussed him earlier: Gerald McCoy. Pairing the two in the middle of that defense would be terrifying for opposing offenses. Both are adept at getting to the quarterback, but McCoy is not known for being particularly strong against the run.
That’s where it would be nice for defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier to have Suh next to McCoy, plugging gaps and stopping running backs.
Tampa had the seventh-best run defense in the league last season, allowing 3.9 yards per carry, but that was thanks in large part to B- and C-gap defenders doing their jobs; outside linebackers Danny Lansanah and Lavonte David, as well as defensive end William Gholston, played the run particularly well in 2014.
But the defense was suspect up the middle. Tampa has an estimated $27.9 million to spend, so it can afford to add Suh in order to bolster the pass rush and the run defense and give Buccaneers fans hope for the future.
Seattle Seahawks
Put this in the “Because Life’s Not Fair” file and forget about it. The Seahawks have over $23 million in cap space this offseason, and though it’s presumed quarterback Russell Wilson will be allotted most of that in the assured massive extension he is soon to get, general manager John Schneider could work his magic and fit both Wilson and Suh into the budget in 2015.
Defensive tackle Brandon Mebane missed Seattle’s Super Bowl run after being placed on the season-ending injured reserve list with a hamstring injury in November. He returns in 2015 with a $5.7 million price tag, but with only $200,000 in dead money, the Seahawks would save $5.5 million if they were to cut him.
That move would make sense if Schneider feels he cannot work out major deals for both Wilson and Suh with the current cap situation, but having Mebane and Suh on the field at the same time would be twice as frightening for opposing running backs as both excel in stuffing the run.
Yeah, like we need the Seahawks defense to be better.
It’s worth noting Suh’s first choice is reportedly Seattle because he grew up in Oregon and would like to be closer to home.
The Seahawks had the No. 2 run defense in the NFL behind only Detroit last season.
Photo: USA Today