Well before the season begins, some NFL coaches already find themselves on the hot seat, and according to oddsmakers Jay Gruden has the hottest seat of all.

The folks over at Bookmaker.eu have broken down their odds for which NFL coach will be fired first in 2019. Gruden is seen as more than twice as likely to be fired as the next-most-likely candidate.

Here’s the breakdown for the top 10:

  • Jay Gruden (Redskins) +300 (3/1)
  • Pat Shurmur (Giants) +700 (7/1)
  • Matt Patricia (Lions) +1000 (10/1)
  • Bill O’Brien (Texans) +1400 (14/1)
  • Dan Quinn (Falcons) +1350 (27/2)
  • Doug Marrone (Jaguars) +1600 (16/1)
  • Mike Zimmer (Vikings) +1800 (18/1)
  • Adam Gase (Jets) +2000 (20/1)
  • Brian Flores (Dolphins) +2000 (20/1)
  • Jason Garrett (Cowboys) +2000 (20/1)

Gruden is an easy bet. He’s been on the hot seat for a couple of years now, and the Redskins remain a dysfunctional mess.

The big surprises in this top-10 list are Dan Quinn of the Atlanta Falcons and Mike Zimmer of the Minnesota Vikings. Though both coaches are coming off disappointing seasons, they also have rosters that should contend for a deep playoff run.

It’s not surprising to see first-year coaches Adam Gase and Brian Flores on a list about coaches on the hot seat, but it would be surprising if either of them were the first coach fired.