When Super Bowl LII wraps up on February 4, we’re either going to see something we’ve seen a lot of recently, or something we’ve never seen at all. At least, that’s the opinion of SportsBettingDime.com, which lists the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings as its top two favorites to win the Super Bowl.
The Pats check in at 7/3, while the Vikings, who would be playing the game at their home stadium, are 4/1. Coming in behind them are the Pittsburgh Steelers (7/1), New Orleans Saints (13/1), Los Angeles Rams (15/1), Kansas City Chiefs (19/1), Atlanta Falcons (19/1), Philadelphia Eagles (24/1), Carolina Panthers (24/1), Jacksonville Jaguars (40/1), Buffalo Bills (49/1), and Tennessee Titans (49/1).
There are some interesting value bets to be had there, namely with the Saints and Rams. They have been not only good, but complete teams all year. Both have the ingredients generally needed to go on long playoff runs. As such, they’d be worth considering.
The Jaguars are also somewhat intriguing. The roster in Jacksonville is simply too talented to be listed at 40/1. Unfortunately, the recent play of Blake Bortles is troubling. The Jags’ best chance would seem to depend almost entirely on either the Chiefs or Titans knocking New England off in the divisional round. Because the odds of Bortles outdueling Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks (both on the road) are longer than simply 40/1.
There is plenty of action for those looking for something that would pay off in Wild Card Weekend, as well. But the one that jumps off the page is, who will be the leading rusher over the weekend’s four games?
The options are Jacksonville’s Leonard Fournette (4/1), Atlanta’s DeVonta Freeman (11/2), L.A.’s Todd Gurley (11/2), Buffalo’s LeSean McCoy (7/1), Kansas City’s Kareem Hunt (10/1), the New Orleans duo of Mark Ingram (12/1), and Alvin Kamara (15/1), Carolina’s Cam Newton (14/1), the Tennessee pair of DeMarco Murray or Derrick Henry (18/1), or the field (62/1).
That yields a few different thoughts.
One, Henry at 18/1 is interesting, if you can still get him. Murray will not play. So, Henry won’t be splitting carries. The problem is that even with good value, you want a bet that has a realistic chance of paying off. For Henry to be worthwhile, the Titans will at least have to be in the game against a high powered Chiefs’ offense. That’s going to be easier said than done.
Two, while we wouldn’t call 11/2 a great value, it’s not bad for someone like Gurley. He’s been the best back in football this year and certainly has been coming down the stretch. Gurley also didn’t play in Week 17, so he should be coming in rested. Laying down $10 to win $55 (or whatever bet you’re inclined to make) seems like a decent play.
Three, given some of the names not on the board, give strong consideration to the field at 62/1.
The Chiefs tend to try to get the ball in Tyreek Hill’s hands. It wouldn’t be unprecedented for something like that to happen on a lateral or reverse. If he can break two of those plays, he’d have a chance.
Given Jacksonville’s overwhelming pass rush and the fact that Buffalo isn’t a passing team to begin with, we can safely assume that the Bills are going to run the ball a lot on Sunday. We don’t yet know about McCoy’s availability. If he can’t go or is severely limited, that would open the door for someone like Mike Tolbert, Marcus Murphy, or more likely quarterback Tyrod Taylor, to have a big day on the ground.
Also, aside from Newton, no Panthers are on the list. We realize that Christian McCaffrey hasn’t had a great season on the ground. But given that Jonathan Stewart will be coming back from an injury (assuming he plays), we have to think that McCaffrey will see plenty of carries.
Most of the big names are on the board. But enough possibilities exist off of it to think that the field at 62/1 is worthwhile.
Do with that information what you will. Most importantly, act responsibly.